The Economist - USA (2022-05-21)

TheEconomistMay21st 2022 MiddleEast&Africa 47

H

iseyeslackthe“hiddenimam’s”

blindingradiance.Hisbeardiswis-

py.Hisfavouritepastimeispumping

iron.Anddespitea recruitmentdrivein

themosqueshehasadmitted(onsocial

media)thathehasnofollowers.Butit

doesn’ttakemuchtounnerveIran’s

rulingayatollahs.Assoonastheclerical

novicefromNishapurineasternIran

proclaimedhimselfthemahdi,theyhad

himjailedasa “falsemessiah”.Hecould

bechargedwithleadingpeopleastray,

incitingpublicanimosityandspreading

corruptiononearth.Thelastofthose

crimescarriesthedeathpenalty.

OfallIran’smanydissidents,few

scarethetheocratsmorethanmessianic

pretenders.Beliefintheadventofthe

“twelfthimam”,whomainstreamShias

believewentintohidingintheninth

centuryandwillreturnattheendof

time,helpedthemmobilisepeopleto

overthrowtheshahin1979.Theyareloth

toseethesamehappentothemselves.

ButasIran’sdomesticmalaisedeep-

ens,thesearchfora saviourisgrowing.

“Internallytheregimehasneverstrug-

gledmore,”saysYaserMirdamadi,an

Iranianclericandscholarinexile.“Sanc-

tions,dictatorship,despairanddisunity

areperfectconditionsformahdis.”

Damaginglyfortheregime,many

ardentmillenarianscomefromitsdis-

illusionedinnercore.“Thefeelingofan

endoftimesisstrongestamongthose

whohadfaithintheregimebutnowfeel

it hasfailed,”saysanadvisertoMah-

moudAhmadinejad,a formerpresident.

Qom,a shrinecityandseatofleading

clerics,producesthemostpretenders.

Accordingtoa recentpolicereport,it

oncehad 20 ina month.Theyincludeda

would-betwelfthimamandseveralbabs,

orgates,whoprophesyhisadvent.Else-

wheretherewasa would-bewifeofthe

messiah,whoattractednumeroussui-

tors.Youngnovicescontinuetogravitate

towardsHassanal-Yamani,anIraqicleric

whodisappearedsoonafterproclaiming

himselfthemahdiin2003.

Theregimeistryingtoreassertits

monopolyovermahdism,saysSaeid

Golkar,theauthorofa reportonthe

phenomenonissuedbytheMiddleEast

Institute,a Washington-basedthink-

tank.Iran’ssupremeleader,AyatollahAli

Khamenei,ofteninvokesthemahdi’s

name,sometimesintears.Toadiescall

MrKhameneithena’ebibahaq, orthe

mahdi’srightfuldeputy.

Agentsresponsibleforcatchingpre-

tendersarecalled“theunknownsoldiers

ofthelastimam”(andnot,asyoumight

imagine,“mahdigrasses”).MrMirdama-

dicitesa prophetichadith, orsaying,that

callsclerics“theworstofcreatures”.

“Whentheimamcomes,theclericswill

denyhim,”hechuckles.

Iran

Mahdi mania

Iraniansyearnfora messiah.Theayatollahsareworried

Sandstorms

A harrowinghaze

T

heskyturnedorangeandthehospitals
turned frenetic. Thousands of Iraqis
descended on emergency rooms com-
plainingthattheycouldnotbreathe.Some
hadtobeputonrespirators.Businesses
told workers to stay at home, schools
closedandairportscancelledflights.Life
cametoa haltamida swirlofdust.
Such scenes have occurred almost
weeklyinIraqsinceApril.Indecadespast,
twoorthreebigsandstormswereexpected
everyyear.This spring Iraq hasalready
loggedatleasteight,includingtheoneon
May16ththatputsome4,000peoplein
hospital.Twopeoplediedacrossthebor-
derinSyria.Themorefrequentstormsare
causingmiseryformillionsanddoingbil-
lionsofdollarsindamage.
Sandstormshavealwaysbeena factof
lifeintheregion.TheSahara,theworld’s
largesthotdesert, andtheArabianone,
whichranksthird,arenotshortofsand.
Everyyear the wind whisks some 60m
tonnesofSaharandustasfarawayasthe
Caribbean.Insomecountries dry,dusty
winds are common enough to merit a
name.GulfArabshavetheshamal, which
sweepsinfromthenorth-west. Towering
skyscrapersincitieslikeDubaiandMana-
ma,Bahrain’scapital,vanishbehinda cur-
tainofgrit.Egyptianscalltheirskhamsin,
Arabicfor50,since ittendsto blowfor
aboutthatmanydaysinspring.It canbring
enoughoftheSaharatoblotoutthesun.
Scientistssayduststormsarecomplex
and poorly understood, but their main
causesarenatural.In 2015 manypeople
blameda fiercesummerstormintheLe-
vantonSyria’scivilwar,thinkingthatar-
moured cars bouncing through fields

kickedupenoughdusttoblanketthere-

gion.ResearchersatPrincetonUniversity

laterciteda moreprosaicmixofunusual

heatandwind—gusts,notgunners.

Still,peopleplainly contributeto the

problem.Demandforwaterismakingan

aridregionevendrier.A WorldBankstudy

in 2019 foundthathumanactions,suchas

over-exploitingriversandlakes,producea

quarteroftheMiddleEast’sdust.Iranhas

drained wetlands for farming. Saddam

Husseindriedoutthemarshesofsouthern

Iraqtopunishtheirinhabitants.Turkish

damsontheTigrisandEuphratesmean

drierriverbedsdownstream.

Allofthismeansmoredusttobeswept

upbythewind.Theshrinkingofthere-

gion’smeagreforestsbecauseoffiresand

loggingmeansthereislessvegetationto

holdit back.Syria,forexample,haslostan

estimated25%ofitswoodlandsince2001,

most of it to summer blazes. Climate

changewillexacerbatetheproblem.

Forthoseluckyenoughtobehealthy

andindoors,sandstormsareanuisance.

NewcomerstoCairowholeavea window

opentocatchthespringbreezesoonlearn

a grittylesson.Forthosewhoworkoutside,

theymakelifeintolerable.Deliverydrivers

ventureforthlikeextrasfroma MadMax

film,kittedoutinscarvesandskigoggles.

Some studies have found that more

than10%ofSaudishaveasthma,ahigh

prevalencecausedatleastpartlyby dust.

Sandstormsbringtinyparticlesthattravel

deepintothelungs.TheWorldHealthOr-

ganisationsaysanymorethanfivemicro-

gramspercubicmetreisunhealthy.Qata-

risbreatheineighttimesthat.TheWorld

Bankestimatesthatairpollutioncauses

30,000prematuredeathsa yearintheMid-

dleEast—andrising.

Economiccostswillmount,too.Work-

ersstayathome.Cropsareburiedunder

dust.Airportsoftencancelflights.Theun

putsthedirecteconomiccostintheMid-

dleEastat$13bna year,withindirectcosts

manytimesbigger.Occasionalduststorms

areaninconvenience;morefrequentones

willbea pestilence.n

D UBAI
Dustfromthedesertisa growing
threattolivesandlivelihoods

Red

Sea

Med. Sea

IRAN

EGYPT

SUDAN

BAHRAIN

KUWAIT

LEBANON SYRIA

IRAQ

TURKEY

QATAR

UAE

SAUDIARABIA

ISRAEL

The

Gulf

Cairo

Dubai

OMAN

Sandandduststormsources

Source:WorldBank

Mainstormpaths

500 km

SAHARA