The Economist - USA (2022-05-21)

72 Finance & economics The Economist May 21st 2022

Dodgydata

Half-measures

T

hemodernIndianstatehasaproud

statistical heritage. Soon after the

countrygainedindependencein1947,the

governmentresolvedtoachieveitsdevel­

opmentthroughcomprehensivefive­year

plans.Thestrategy,thougheconomically

inadvisable,nonethelessrequiredthecre­

ationofa robustdata­gatheringapparatus.

In 1950 PCMahalanobis,theleadinglight

ofIndianstatistics,designedtheNational

SampleSurvey,whichsentstafftothefar

cornersofthevastcountrytojotdowndata

regardingitsmostlyilliteratecitizens.The

survey’s complexity and scope seemed

“beyondtheboundsofpossibility”,reck­

onedoneAmericanstatistician.

Oflate,however,admirationhasbeen

replacedbyalarm.India’sstatisticalservic­

esareina badway.Acrosssomemeasures,

figuresaresimplynotgathered;forothers,

thedataareoftendodgy,unrepresentative,

untimely, or just wrong. The country’s

trackingofcovid­19providesa grimexam­

ple.AsthepandemicragedacrossIndia,

officialsstruggledtokeeptabsonitstoll.

Officially,covid hasclaimed more than

halfa millionlivesinIndia;TheEconomist’s

excess­deathstrackerputsthefigurefar

higher,between2mand9.4m.India’sgov­

ernmenthasalsohamperedeffortstoas­

sessthepandemic’sglobalimpact,refus­

ingatfirsttosharedatawiththeWorld

HealthOrganisation(who), andcriticising

itsmethods.

Thepreferenceforflatteringbutflawed

figures is pervasive. In education, state

governmentsregularly  ignore  data  show­

ing thatIndianchildren  are  performing

woefullyinschooland  instead  cite  their

ownadministrative numbers,  which  are

oftenwrong.InMadhya Pradesh, a state in

central India, an official  assessment

showed thatallpupils  had  scored  more

than60%ina mathstest; an independent

assessment revealed  that  none  of  them

had.Similarly,insanitation,  the  central

governmentsaysthat India is now free of

opendefecation,meaning that people both

haveaccesstoa toilet and consistently use

it.Anyonewhotakesa train out of Delhi at

dawnandlooksoutof  the  window,  how­

ever,mightquestionthe claim. 

Whenitcomestopoverty, arguably In­

dia’s biggestproblem,  timely  figures  are

notavailable.Official  estimates  are  based

ona povertylinederived  from  consump­

tiondatain2011­12,despite  the  fact  that

morerecentbutasyet unpublished num­

bersexistfor2017­18. By contrast, Indone­

siacalculatesitspoverty rate twice a year.

India’sgovernmentexplains  its  approach

bypointingtodiscrepancies  between  re­

centlygathereddataand national accounts

statistics—butmanysuspect  the  true  rea­

son is that newer data  would  probably

showanincreaseinpoverty.

Insomecases,flawed data seem more a

problemofmethodology  than  malign  in­

tent.India’sgdpestimates,  for  instance,

havebeenmiredincontroversy ever since

thestatistics ministry  introduced  a  new

series in 2015 (a change  that  was  in  the

works  before  the  current  government  en­

tered  office).  Arvind  Subramanian,  a  for­

mer  government  adviser,  calculated  that

the new methodology overestimated aver­

age annual growth by as much as three to

four percentage points between 2011­12 and

2016­17.  Although  current  advisers  insist

that  the  official  methodology  is  in  line

with  global  standards,  other  studies  have

also found problems with the calculations. 

The  erosion  of  India’s  statistical  infra­

structure  predates  the  current  govern­

ment,  but  seems  to  have  grown  worse  in

recent  years.  Narendra  Modi,  the  prime

minister,  has  previously  bristled  at  tech­

nocratic expertise and number­crunching.

(“Hard  work  is  more  powerful  than  Har­

vard,” he said in 2017.) 

India’s data woes are also troubling for

what  they  suggest  about  the  ability  of  the

state to provide the essential public servic­

es  needed  to  foster  long­run  growth.  The

statistics  ministry,  short  of  staff  and  re­

sources, is emblematic of the civil service.

Data­gathering  has  become  excessively

centralised and over­politicised. A Nation­

al  Statistical  Commission  was  set  up  in

2005 and tasked with fixing India’s data in­

frastructure. But its work has been compli­

cated by turf wars and internal politics; it is

widely considered toothless, including by

former members. 

Who’s counting

The situation is not hopeless, perhaps be­

cause of statisticians’ past efforts. Accord­

ing to the World Bank, the quality of Indian

data is still in line with that of other devel­

oping  countries,  even  after  years  of  ne­

glect.  India’s  new  goods­and­services  tax

and  digital­welfare  infrastructure  are

yielding  troves  of  data.  Leading  Indian

statisticians argue that an empowered reg­

ulator could fix existing problems. 

State  governments  and  departments

are also doing their bit. Telangana, a south­

ern state, is investing in its own household

surveys,  for  example.  India’s  rural­devel­

opment ministry recently released a data­

set covering 770,000 rural public facilities,

such as schools and hospitals, inviting da­

ta  whizzes  to  peruse  the  figures  and  sug­

gest improvements. Civil society is also re­

sponding. During the pandemic, dozens of

volunteers  co­operated  to  produce  granu­

lar,  timely  estimates  of  covid  cases.  New

technologies could help gather data quick­

ly and cheaply, over phones and tablets.

Yet  in  a  modern  economy  there  is  no

substitute  for  high­quality  national  data­

gathering. The sunlight provided by accu­

rate  figures  is  often  unwelcome  for  an

increasingly  autocratic  government:  tran­

sparency  invites  accountability.  But  ne­

glect  of  the  statistical  services  also  leaves

Indian  policymakers  flailing  in  the  dark,

unable  to  quickly  spot  and  respond to

brewing economic and social problems.n

D ELHI

India’s once-vaunted statistical infrastructure is crumbling

There’s strength in numbers