last year....’’^21 Jiang justified Beijing’s largest military spending raise since the
19.4 percent augmentation from 2002 by stating that ‘‘We must increase our
militarybudget,asitisimportanttonational security. China’s military must
modernize. Our overall defenses are weak.’’^22
Regardless of exact budgetary figures, China is clearly developing and procur-
ing the weapons and nurturing the manpower to modernize its military signifi-
cantly. China’s capabilities are clearly growing, but its naval intentions—at least
beyond asserting control over its claimed territorial waters, to include Taiwan—
remain somewhat unclear. In the absenceof authoritative policy statements or
specific figures, let us now examine China’s naval platforms for more concrete
indications of its maritime development trajectory.
China’s Submarine Force: Underpinning the Emerging PLA NavyThe heart of China’s accelerating naval development is its submarine force.
Submarines offer the PLAN a weapon system that is at once a cost-effective
deterrent and a highly lethal means of battling even a superior fleet of surface
ships. Recently commanded by Admiral Zhang Dingfa, a nuclear submariner
who was promoted to the Central Military Commission in 2004, the PLAN is
poised to intensify its undersea-warfare capabilities.
The PLAN launched thirteen submarines between 2002 and 2004.^23 These
vessels include two new classes of nuclear submarines, as well as the advanced
Song-class diesel submarines and theYuan-class diesel submarine, the latter of
which, according to some reports, represented a surprise for U.S. intelligence.^24
As many as fourteenSong-class submarines have been launched thus far, in three
progressively refined variants. TheSongprogram defied Western predictions that
the series would be a failure and that production would halt upon purchase
of Russian platforms. TheSongis designed to carry the potent YJ-82 ASCM
(antiship cruise missile).^25
Considered by experts to be either a ‘‘Kilo with Chinese characteristics’’ or a
‘‘Songwith Russian characteristics,’’ the Type 041Yuan-class submarine could
conceivably be equipped with revolutionary AIP (air-independent-propulsion)
technology, which allows diesel submarines to operate underwater for far longer
periods without surfacing to snorkel. Even if this is yet not the case, constant
attention to AIP on the part of Chinese analysts suggests that such technology
may be incorporated into future submarines.
By the end of 2006, the PLAN had also taken delivery of eight formidable
Kilo-class Project 636M submarines purchased in 2002, complete with associated
weaponry such as wake-homing and wire-guided torpedoes and the supersonic
SS-N-27B ASCM.^26 The new acquisitions added to the two Project 877EKM
and two Project 636 variants the navy already operates. Project 636MKilosare
reported to have an endurance capability of 45 days, allowing for a range of
Can China Become a Maritime Power? 75