continues to rise, its aerospace capacities are likely to rise with it, with significant
implications for Beijing’s ability to influence its maritime periphery and chal-
lenge U.S. hegemony.Chinese Deck Aviation Ambitions
The most comprehensive and far-reaching question concerning PLAN mod-
ernization is the extent to which Beijing will choose between a navy focused on
large-deck aviation vs. one based fundamentally on submarines. This is because
the former force structure would likely be needed for the PLAN to truly project
power into the blue water ‘‘beyond Taiwan.’’ According to Huang Qiang, head
of the State Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National
Defense, ‘‘China has the capability of building an aircraft carrier, but it is still
unknown when one will be built.’’^116 Another media source of uncertain reliabil-
ity states, ‘‘China could build its first aircraft carrier by 2010 if current research
and development proceeds smoothly.’’^117 While critical datapoints remain
unclear, aircraft carriers have already captured the imagination of China’s public,
and even of some of its strategists. Perhaps because of Beijing’s determination to
be respected universally as a great power and the nation’s growing maritime inter-
ests, the PLAN is apparently contemplating various alternatives for developing
aircraft carriers. Increasingly numerous and diverse statements and writings on
this subject offer critical insights into Beijing’s emerging maritime strategy.
To date, Beijing has made significantly greater progress in analyzing and
targeting enemy carriers than in building its own. For instance, Taiwan scenarios
and how to target U.S. surface combatants, especially aircraft carriers, are report-
edly often discussed in PLA internal meetings.^118 As ONI’s Scott Bray assesses,
‘‘Much of China’s military modernization effort of the past five years, and
particularly the modernization of the Chinese Navy, has been designed to
improve China’s anti-carrier capability. China envisions an attack on a carrier
strike group as incorporating submarine-launched ASCM strikes and ASBM
attacks.’’^119 Chinese recognition of the increasing vulnerability of carriers,
particularly less-sophisticated versions such as China might develop, may thus
retard Beijing’s indigenous carrier development.
China has already purchased four decommissioned aircraft carriers, to consid-
erable Western media speculation. China’s old carriers, especiallyMinskandKiev,
were probably purchased for dissectiontoinformfutureindigenousdesign
efforts.Varyag,representing the largest and most advanced Soviet carrier design,
may ultimately also be used for pilot and deck-crew training and as a ‘‘test
platform’’ for general research and development of relevant shipboard systems.
To this end,Varyagmay be retrofitted with an engineering plant, shafts, and
screws (which it was said not to have at time of sale to China), so that it can
go to sea under its own power. Eventually, a modestly capableVaryagmight90 Asia Looks Seaward