TheEconomistSeptember 28th 2019 311T
he liberal party supporters who
lined up behind Justin Trudeau during
a campaign stop in Brampton, near To-
ronto, were an ethnically diverse lot. But
they looked universally glum. Thanks only
partly to the release of several photographs
showing a younger Mr Trudeau wearing
blackface make-up, the man who was once
his party’s greatest asset has become its
biggest problem.
Mr Trudeau, who came to power in 2015,
is a prominent exception to the domino
run of right-wing populist world leaders.
At international events he promotes immi-
gration, globalisation and feminism. At
home, his government has raised taxes on
the wealthy, launched a means-tested child
benefit, imposed a carbon tax in provinces
that do not have their own ones and legal-
ised marijuana.
Gradually, though, Mr Trudeau has ac-
quired a shifty reputation. In 2017 he broke
his promise to reform Canada’s first-past-
the-post electoral system, which benefits
his party. In February this year he broke the
parliamentary ethics code by pressing his
attorney-general to intervene in the crimi-
nal prosecution for bribery of a large Que-
bec engineering firm. Then the blackface
pictures appeared. Mr Trudeau has told re-
porters that his privileged background as
the son of former prime minister Pierre El-
liott Trudeau left him with a blind spot
about race. He is somewhat vague about
when his vision improved.
To keep his job as prime minister in
next month’s elections, Mr Trudeau must
do two things. He has to hold onto moder-
ate voters who might be tempted by the
Conservative Party, while convincing sup-
porters of the Green Party and the left-wing
New Democratic Party that he is their best
hope for pushing through a progressive
agenda. The Greens and the ndpare polling
at about 10% and 15% respectively; thanks
to the first-past-the-post system, neither
stands to win many seats in parliament.
But the right-left two-step is a tricky dance.
The Conservatives, who are neck-and-neck with the Liberals in the polls, are run-
ning a good campaign. Andrew Scheer, a
former speaker of the House of Commons
who leads the party, has tapped into wide-
spread unease about the cost of living. His
promises, which include tax cuts for peo-
ple on low incomes, tax credits for new par-
ents and children’s sports activities, and
loosening mortgage rules so that more
young people can buy homes, fit tidily un-
der the Conservative campaign: “It’s time
for you to get ahead”. He talks often about
fighting for ordinary people against
elites—a tiresome populist trope that
works better when aimed at a political sci-
on like Mr Trudeau.
Canada’s unemployment rate was just
5.7% in August, close to a 40-year low. Aver-
age wages are growing by nearly twice the
rate of inflation. Mr Trudeau repeats some
version of these numbers frequently. Yet
Mr Scheer’s message about affordability
resonates and has forced the prime minis-
ter to focus on the issue. He presented
slightly altered versions of the Conserva-
tive tax cut and maternity-benefits plan
within days of their announcement.
Meanwhile parts of the coalition of vot-
ers that brought Mr Trudeau to power are
looking shaky. In 2015 eight out of the ten
constituencies with the highest proportion
of immigrants went for his party. The
blackface scandal could put some immi-
grant voters off, although Mr Trudeau’s
support for high levels of immigration will
weigh in his favour. Just over 321,000 per-
manent residents were admitted in 2018Politics in Canada
Dark days for Justin Trudeau
OTTAWA
To keep his job as prime minister, he must fight on two political fronts
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