The Economist - USA (2019-09-28)

The EconomistSeptember 28th 2019 Middle East & Africa 45

1

F

ew west africancountries excite in-

vestors quite as much as Ivory Coast. Its

economy, which is forecast to expand by

more than 7% this year and next, is among

the fastest growing in Africa. Its efforts to

cut red tape and make it easier to start a

company or get loans have won praise from

private firms and multilateral institutions,

such as the imfand World Bank—which

has bumped it up by 25 places on its “ease of

doing business” index since 2015. On Sep-

tember 23rd Standard Chartered, a bank,

ranked it top of its list of 20 countries that

have the most potential to trade.

Much of the credit for this economic

boom goes to Alassane Ouattara, a former

economist who has been president since

2011. During his term the government has
      sold stakes in state-owned companies and
      invested in new roads and other infrastruc-
      ture. But economic reform has not been
      matched by political change, prompting
      worries ahead of a presidential election
      next year that the country may slip back
      into conflict. A disputed election in 2010
      led to a dreadful year-long civil war.
      The first concern is over Mr Ouattara,
      who may blot his copybook by trying to run
      for a third term. This would seem to be in
      breach of the two-term limit that was writ-
      ten into a new constitution in 2016. But Mr
      Ouattara said in an interview with a French
      magazine last year that his first terms do
      not count and that he could stand for an-
      other two, starting next year. Such a move
      would infuriate the opposition and almost
      certainly lead to violent unrest, says Ach-
      ille Comoe of Planet Peace, an Ivorian ngo.
      One trick may be to change the constitu-
      tion to bar people over the age of 75 from
      running. Although this would bar Mr Ouat-
      tara, it would also disqualify his main po-
      litical rivals, Henri Konan Bédié and Lau-
      rent Gbagbo, both former presidents. Mr
      Ouattara abolished the age limit in 2016,
      perhaps already then with a view to run-
      ning again. (Even if he does not run, he may
      still try to tilt the contest in favour of his
      ruling rhdp party.)
      Few ordinary folk would be unhappy to
      see Mr Gbagbo disqualified: it was his re-

fusal to concede defeat after he lost the

election in 2010 that sparked the civil war

that led to the deaths of about 3,000 people.

His political career ought surely to have

ended in 2011, when Mr Ouattara’s forces

winkled him out of his bunker in Abidjan,

the country’s commercial capital, or when

he was arrested later that year to face char-

ges of war crimes before the International

Criminal Court (icc). Yet he still influences

Ivorian politics. His acquittal by the icc

earlier this year raised fears that he might

return to run again, reigniting conflict.

That risk was averted for the time being

on September 16th, when the icc’s chief

prosecutor appealed against his acquittal.

But the long shadow cast by the war still

makes many Ivorians nervous, particularly

when they look at the state of the army. Al-

though rebels and loyalists were integrat-

ed, the army is deeply divided and prone to

mutiny. In 2017 some 8,400 disgruntled

soldiers—about a third of the total—took

over the country’s second city, Bouaké, de-

manding $8,000 and a house each.

Ivorians strongly endorse the two-term

limit for presidents and more than a quar-

ter think their representatives are corrupt.

The economy may be booming, but democ-

racy is in a slump. “Politics is still the easi-

est way to make money,” shrugs André

Braud-Mensah, a businessman. 7

ABIDJAN

The economy is on the mend, but

politics are still wobbly

Ivory Coast

A delicate peace

T

he egyptian police seemed caught off-

guard by the protests on September

20th. That was understandable, given that

almost no one had dared protest in years,

and it was a Friday night, the start of the

football season, when arch-rivals Zamalek

and Al Ahly were playing each other. The

authorities did not expect Egyptians to

heed the call of Muhammad Ali, a disgrun-

tled Egyptian businessman and former ac-

tor (pictured) who urged his followers on

YouTube to take to the streets. But in Cairo

and other cities, hundreds of people did.

In a country of 100m citizens, a few hun-

dred people venting their frustrations with

the army-backed regime led by Abdel-Fat-

tah al-Sisi would not have filled a subway

station. This was not a repeat of 2011, when

millions of Egyptians turned out to topple

Hosni Mubarak, the former strongman.

But it was an act of both desperation and

bravery. Mr Sisi tolerates no dissent. A lone

man in Cairo who dared publicly oppose a

sham constitutional referendum in March

was jailed for months. Small as they were,

the protests are significant, both for what

caused them and what they say about

Egypt’s moribund politics.

For weeks Mr Ali has captivated the

country with a series of videos posted on

YouTube. Speaking in gravelly, colloquial

Arabic, he drags on a cigarette and insults

Mr Sisi as a “midget” and a “disgrace”.

Claiming to have made a small fortune as a

CAIRO

A former actor living abroad is stirring up Egyptians

Protests in Egypt

Sisi’s pain in Spain

Correction:In an article on September 21st (“Au

revoir to arms”) we incorrectly said that on

September 9th Riek Machar returned to South

Sudan for the first time since fleeing in 2016. In fact,

he had returned before. We also said that a peace

deal in South Sudan was brokered by Sudan. It was

actually brokered by Ethiopia. Sorry.