The Economist - USA (2019-09-28)

46 Middle East & Africa The EconomistSeptember 28th 2019

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t theendoflastyearPresident

DonaldTrump explained that he was

donewithSyria. He boasted of defeating

thejihadistsofIslamic State (is), “my

onlyreasonforbeing there”. Though he

laterreversedhis decision to withdraw

all2,000American troops from Syria, the

conflictremains low on his list of priori-

ties.OnSeptember 24th, the Syria Study

Group,a 12-member panel appointed by

Congress,published a report explaining

whySyriawasnot done with Mr Trump.

Basharal-Assad, Syria’s dictator, has

allbutdefeated a rebel insurgency, with

RussianandIranian help. But his control

beyondDamascus is “tenuous”, and

“crimeandwarlordism are rampant”,

saysthepanel.His ongoing push into

Idlibprovince,a jihadist stronghold, will

causea floodofrefugees, compounding

whatisalreadyone of the worst refugee

crisessincethesecond world war.

Evenisismerely down, not out. The

reportwarnsthat ramshackle prisons

holdingsome10,000 jihadists could

providethewellspring of a new insur-

gency.Idlibitself has the largest concen-

trationofforeign fighters since Afghani-

staninthe1990s. The Syrian Democratic

Forces,a largely Kurdish militia that

servesasAmerica’s principal local ally

againstis, hasbeen “heavy-handed” in

theArabareasit controls. In turn, disaf-

fectedArabsmight become easy fodder

forjihadistrecruiters.

Amidthischaos, Russia and Iran have

prospered.Russia has used its influence

inSyriatoposition itself as a “power

centre”intheMiddle East. Iran has en-

trencheditselfinSyria,courting local

tribes, building schools and buying land

around Damascus. This worries Israel,

which has bombed Iranian positions in

Syria. Mara Karlin, an expert at the

Brookings Institution and a study-group

member, warns of the possibility of a

“spectacular Levantine spillover”.

America, by contrast, has been awol.

Its aid for north-eastern Syria, where it

has troops, has dried up. Mr Trump’s

erratic policies and obvious lack of in-

terest in the conflict have also caused

American allies to hedge their bets.

Jordan and Israel have deepened ties

with Russia. The United Arab Emirates

has reopened its embassy in Damascus.

America’s mission in Syria is often

lumped together with the “forever wars”

in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is unfair,

says the report: “The Syria case offers a

different—and far less costly—model.”

The panel urges America to maintain its

small footprint in Syria in order to sup-

port the areas liberated from is, keep the

jihadists at bay and increase pressure on

Mr Assad and his backers to reach a

political settlement.

America has leverage over Mr Assad:

two-thirds of Syria’s hydrocarbons lie

outside the regime’s control, mostly in

areas where America is the dominant

force. But using that leverage requires

American leaders to pay more attention

to Syria. The study group offers a stark

reason why they should: it is Syria—not

Iran, or Yemen, or Palestine—that is the

“leading source of instability in the

Middle East”.

A cry for attention

America and Syria

A new study slams America for neglecting Syria

Still needed

contractor working on projects overseen

by the army and thus to have knowledge of

these matters, he accuses the president of

wasting millions of dollars on a luxury ho-

tel, presidential palaces and other lavish

projects. He now lives in what he calls self-

imposed exile in Spain.

Though Mr Ali has offered no hard evi-

dence, his claims resonate with Egyptians,

who quip that his videos are better than

anything on Netflix. The army has expand-

ed its economic empire since Mr Sisi took

power in a coup in 2013. Generals have cor-

nered the cement market, opened private

schools and stepped in to produce baby for-

mula after a nationwide shortage. Mean-

while, despite solid macroeconomic num-

bers, ordinary people struggle to survive.

The official poverty rate has climbed five

points since 2015, to 33%. Wages have not

kept pace with inflation, and an imf-

backed reform programme has brought

higher taxes and lower subsidies. “[Mr Sisi]

lives in palaces while we eat from the

trash,” complained one woman in a widely

shared video from the night of the protests.

Mr Sisi admits to building new palaces,

but says they are not for him—a curious de-

fence for a man who plans to rule until at

least 2030. He blames the unrest on the

Muslim Brotherhood, a banned Islamist

group on which the regime blames every-

thing from potato shortages to protests.

This convinces nobody, though even Mr

Ali’s fans wonder about his sudden rise and

why a man who once worked with the army

abruptly turned on it. Some muse, also im-

plausibly, that he is backed by a rogue fac-

tion within the regime eager to cast off an

increasingly unpopular president.

Mr Ali has called for more protests on

September 27th. Investors are not happy.

Fixed-income traders have been drawn to

Egypt’s high interest rates and veneer of au-

thoritarian stability. Since the protests,

bond prices and currency futures have both

weakened. The stockmarket has fallen

sharply. But it is hard to say if the protests

will continue, especially now that the po-

lice are prepared. Hundreds of people have

been arrested. A lawyer who represents

other detainees was plucked from the

courthouse steps and tossed into a van by

police. Egypt’s shrivelled opposition has

not endorsed the call for protests, in part

because Mr Ali is such an enigma.

There is real frustration with Mr Sisi,

among both the public and the elite. What

keeps him in power is not just brutality. It

is the hollowing-out of Egypt’s political

and civil life, a process that began more

than half a century ago, when the army and

the Brotherhood began a ruinous rivalry.

Mr Sisi has made things worse by crushing

even the mildest of critics. A chain-smok-

ing actor in Spain has momentarily, unex-

pectedly, tapped into public anger. But

there is no one in Egypt to harness it. 7