TheEconomistSeptember 28th 2019 471“W
e wanted todrain the swamp here
in our country,” said Ukraine’s new
president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in his now
notorious phone call with Donald Trump
in July. “We brought in many new people.
Not...the typical politicians, because we
want to have a new...type of government.
You are a great teacher for us in that.”
Beyond the sycophancy inevitable from
the president of a weak country that needs
protection against a regional superpower
that is occupying part of its territory, the
conversation offers some insights into Mr
Zelensky’s challenge. Having won a land-
slide victory in April’s presidential election
and a parliamentary one after that, he has
to persuade Ukrainian voters and Western-
ers who hold the purse-strings that he is se-
rious about ending both corruption and
the war with Russia, which has claimed
13,000 lives and displaced 1.5m people.
To these ends, he has lifted immunity
from prosecution from members of parlia-
ment, long a marketplace of money for po-
litical favours, and he has brought home 35
Ukrainians, including 24 sailors, who were
being held by Russia. Their return was metwith nationwide jubilation and a surge in
Mr Zelensky’s approval rating, which now
stands at 70%. But in order to sustain his
appeal, he will have to fulfil his promises.
A recent flurry of diplomatic activity
has rekindled hopes for a moribund peace
process. The Minsk agreement, brokered
by France and Germany in 2014-15, halted
the slaughter of the Ukrainian army by
Russian forces but was never implement-
ed, so Russia still controls the Donbas re-
gion in south-eastern Ukraine.
Neither side was much interested in a
peace settlement back then. The war al-
lowed Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president,
not just to destabilise Ukraine but also to
portray himself as defending ethnic Rus-
sians in the country against a nationalist
Ukrainian junta. Petro Poroshenko, Mr Ze-
lensky’s presidential predecessor, also
came to see the conflict with Russia as a
useful way of consolidating his electoral
base and diverting attention from corrup-
tion and economic woes.
Mr Zelensky’s victory has changed this
calculus. Being of Jewish origin and com-
ing from the Russian-speaking part of thecountry, he undermines the Kremlin’s nar-
rative about Ukrainian fascists usurping
power in Kiev. He is also keen to reverse Mr
Poroshenko’s policies. To signal that he is
serious about ending the conflict, he has
unilaterally pulled back from a couple of
places along the 400km “separation line”.
For Mr Putin, the foreign adventures which
once entertained the Russian public have
become irritants; a rise in the pension age
and economic stagnation are also eating
away at his popularity. He wants to normal-
ise relations with Europe and ensure the
lifting of the economic sanctions imposed
on Russia. He also needs the West to acqui-
esce in his annexation of Crimea and his
retention of power after his (supposedly fi-
nal) term expires in 2024.
Both Mr Trump and Emmanuel Macron,
France’s president, have been calling for
the normalisation of relations with Russia,
mooting its return to the g7 club, though
for different reasons. Mr Trump sees Uk-
raine at best as an irritant that frustrates his
relationship with Mr Putin. Mr Macron,
who has ambitions to shape a new Euro-
pean security architecture, has argued that
“pushing Russia away from Europe is a pro-
found strategic error”.
All this gives cause for both optimism
and caution. The details of any new deal are
paramount. Mr Putin wants Donbas to be
granted special status within the Ukrai-
nian constitution, provided Moscow re-
tains influence over it and can use it to
crank up the pressure on Kiev when it
wants to. Ukraine has held out the pos-UkraineHope and fear
KIEV
Can Volodymyr Zelensky live up to the huge expectations he has created?Europe
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