The EconomistSeptember 28th 2019 Britain 55T
he supreme court’sthunderclap of a ruling against the gov-
ernment on September 24th was a godsend for Jeremy Corbyn.
It not only gave him an excuse to bring his Labour Party conference
to a premature end by giving his speech a day early. It also allowed
the party to dispense with a speech by Tom Watson, the deputy
leader, that might have resulted in mass walkouts. There is never-
theless no doubt that this year’s conference, held in a rainy Brigh-
ton, was a miserable affair. An event that is designed to showcase
the leader’s preparedness for power was overshadowed by the
question of whether he should be preparing for retirement.
The first sign of trouble was a failed attempt to remove Mr Wat-
son from his job by Jon Lansman, the head of Mr Corbyn’s praetor-
ian guard, Momentum. It is no secret that the left covets Mr Wat-
son’s head. But Mr Lansman’s timing was odd given that his plot
was guaranteed to ignite an internal war and send the media into a
blood-frenzy. The only explanation is panic about the succession.
Under current rules the deputy leader takes over temporarily if the
leader resigns and therefore plays a role in choosing the next one.
The second sign of trouble was a leaked memo by Andrew Fish-
er, a member of Mr Corbyn’s inner circle and an author of Labour’s
2017 manifesto. Mr Fisher lambasted Mr Corbyn’s office for its
“blizzard of lies” and “lack of competence, professionalism and
human decency”. The last two words were particularly cutting. He
also warned that the party would not be able to win the next elec-
tion with the current leadership.
The succession crisis is being driven by two numbers: 70 and
- At 70, Mr Corbyn is on the old side for somebody who aspires to
the most demanding job in British politics. And at 25, Labour’s av-
erage poll rating is much too low for a party that aspires to power.
Labour should be well ahead of a government that blunders from
crisis to crisis. Instead it is behind in every poll, sometimes by
some distance. In this year’s European election Labour finished
third, behind the Liberal Democrats. In two subsequent by-elec-
tions it has suffered double-digit declines in its vote share. Labour
mps from the Midlands and the north report that voters constantly
tell them they will not back Labour so long as it is led by Mr Corbyn.
Labour Remainers (who make up the bulk of party members)
are furious with Mr Corbyn’s fence-sitting over Brexit. Matthew
Pennycook, a shadow Brexit minister, stepped down on September
25th to campaign for Remain. People across the party are disheart-
ened by Mr Corbyn’s faltering performance. Though he bought
himself a period of grace with his almost successful election cam-
paign in 2017, that has now ended. He has made a succession of un-
forced errors that hurt deeply, not least asking for the Russians to
be called in to help investigate the poisonings in Salisbury, and
dragging his feet over investigating anti-Semitism in the party. It is
a measure of Mr Corbyn’s leadership ability that he has managed to
take a moderate position on the one subject, Brexit, where extreme
positions are popular, and extreme positions on everything else.
Mr Corbyn insists that he will not only lead his party into the
next general election but also serve a full term as prime minister.
He is probably right about the first, given that the next election
could be a matter of weeks away. But he is almost certainly wrong
about the second. A year in Downing Street is equivalent to several
years of ordinary life. The more interesting question is not wheth-
er Mr Corbyn can survive for the next few months, but whether the
“Corbyn project”, as Labour delegates call it, can survive his depar-
ture, be it the result of an election defeat or the toll of high office.
For all his many faults Mr Corbyn is a consummate machine
politician. His supporters control all the party’s great organs of
power, from the National Executive Committee to the biggest trade
union to the local parties. Mr Corbyn demonstrated his grip at the
conference by engineering the defeat of a motion to throw the
party’s weight behind Remain. Two big unions, Unite and the gmb,
voted as a bloc against the motion, the left-wing pressure group
Momentum whipped its delegates to oppose it and, in a Soviet mo-
ment, Wendy Nichols, the chairwoman of the session, reversed
her decision that the vote had passed after an intervention from
Jennie Formby, the party’s general secretary. What’s more, the Cor-
byn project is driven by two men rather than one. John McDonnell,
the shadow chancellor, remains as bright and omnipresent as ever
despite his 68 years.
Against that, the party’s middle ranks are much less supportive
of the project. The Corbynites’ preferred successor, Rebecca Long-
Bailey, the party’s energy spokeswoman, is a thin reed. A poor per-
former in Parliament and on television, she lacks both Mr Corbyn’s
intermittent charm and Mr McDonnell’s iron grip on detail. By
contrast, the party’s moderate wing has a plethora of more impres-
sive figures. Emily Thornberry is a good parliamentary debater
(and outshines Mr Corbyn when she stands in for him at prime
minister’s questions); Sir Keir Starmer has transformed himself
from a lawyer who happens to be in the politics business to an ac-
complished politician who happens to know a lot about the law;
Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper have a rare ability to articulate a
moderate position in an age of polarisation. The most impressive
members of the party’s next generation—Jess Philips, Angela
Rayner and Lisa Nandy—have kept their distance from Corbynism.Capture the red flag
Labour’s ascendant left wing likes to think in terms of vast, imper-
sonal, historical forces: the crisis of neo-liberalism, the death-ago-
nies of imperialism and the rest of it. But the fate of Mr Corbyn’s
great project to build socialism in Britain depends on the political
machinations of a handful of individuals. The fact that the balance
of power is so delicate means that the struggle can only become
more bitter in the months to come. Mr Corbyn’s rise divided the
party like nothing since the second world war. His eventual depar-
ture will divide it even further. 7Bagehot After Corbyn
Labour is contemplating life beyond its current leader