The Economist - USA (2019-09-28)

The EconomistSeptember 28th 2019 International 57

2 cdp, 71% of greenhouse-gas emissions
came from fossil fuels sold by 100 energy
giants. On the afternoon of September 23rd
the bosses of companies including Exxon-
Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and bpsat in the
airy Morgan Library for a forum organised
by the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, an in-
dustry effort to reduce emissions from op-
erations and invest in technologies that
will help mitigate climate change.
The firms vowed to limit methane emis-
sions and highlighted their investment
into carbon capture and sequestration. But
they also explained that they were continu-
ing to develop new oil and gas fields. “We
are meeting a demand for a product that
makes the quality of life in the world bet-
ter,” said Mike Wirth, the boss of Chevron.
They are unlikely to stop unless de-
mand drops off. That might happen if, or
when, the regulatory war on carbon enters
a new phase. A new report by Principles for
Responsible Investment, an unsupported
group of investors with $86trn under man-
agement, predicts “abrupt and disruptive”
climate policies by 2025, as authorities
wake up to the urgency of the climate chal-
lenge. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of
England, used his unspeech to stress the
need for businesses to be made to disclose
the costs that climate change and climate
policies could stick them with.
A complement to better assessing the
climate risks of investment is to invest in
things that reduce the climate risk in the
first place. This is aim of the Climate Fi-
nance Leadership Initiative (cfli), a group
of banks, asset managers and energy devel-
opers handpicked by Michael Bloomberg,
former mayor of New York City and a un
special envoy for climate change.
There is a huge need for energy invest-
ment in poor countries. There is a huge
amount of capital in rich-world pension
funds. At the moment, though, zero-car-
bon energy in developing countries does
not appeal to those funds’ appetite for safe
and reliable investments.
That is where the cfli comes in. By
bringing together asset managers, like axa
and Japan’s Government Pension Invest-
ment Fund, banks, like hsbc, and energy-
project developers, such as Enel, it can cov-
er the pipeline of renewable investment
projects—from capital raising and alloca-
tion to project development.
In a recent report the cflisaid that clos-
er ties between private finance and devel-
opment-finance institutions would allow
greater use of tools that share risk between
public and private investors. With that in
mind, on September 25th the cfli an-
nounceda tie-upwiththeAssociationof

European Development Finance Institu-

tions. The association’s members have ex-

perience in emerging markets; they can

scope out projects for the cfliand bear

some of the risks.

The cfliplans to invest $20bn in the

next five years. Compared with the trillions

needed in clean energy, that does not

sound much. But Daniel Klier of hsbc ar-

gues that by creating successful pilot pro-

jects the cflican demonstrate the attrac-

tion of its strategies for removing risk from

renewable energy investments.

Such promising initiatives are unlikely

to placate Ms Thunberg. “All you can talk

about is money and fairy tales of eternal

economic growth,” she raged at the general

assembly before seeking to conscript an-

other unbody to her cause. Under the

“third optional protocol” to the Conven-

tion on the Rights of the Child, the Com-

mittee on the Rights of the Child can be pe-

titioned by children being denied their

rights. Ms Thunberg and 15 other young

people filed such a complaint against five

countries that have ratified the protocol—

Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, and

Turkey—for following climate policies that

do not respect or protect children’s rights.

They are nothing if not determined. 7

T

he world’soceansaregettingwarm-

er, stormier and more acidic. They are

becoming less productive as the ecosys-

tems within them collapse. Melting

glaciers and ice sheets are causing sea

levels to rise, increasing the risk of inun-

dation and devastation to hundreds of

millions of people living in coastal areas.

The latest special report from the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (ipcc), on how the oceans and

frozen regions of the planet are changing

in response to the rising carbon dioxide

levels in the atmosphere, is a predictably

grim read. The final text, pored and

argued over by scores of scientists and

policymakers from 36 countries over the

course of marathon meetings in the past

week in Monaco, makes reference to

almost 7,000 relevant scientific studies.

For decades, the oceans have provided

a buffer against the full impact of a

warming planet. Since 1970, says the

report, they have soaked up more than

90% of the excess heat associated with

greenhouse gases and absorbed around a

quarterofthecarbondioxideemitted

from cars, power stations and factories.

As oceans warm, the layers of water

within them mix less and the supply of

oxygen and nutrients decreases. The

upper layers of the world’s seas have lost

1-3% of their oxygen in recent years and

the increased absorption of CO 2 has

made the water more acidic, complicat-

ing life for creatures such as coral that

need to build carbonate shells. As this

continues, the report predicts that

around 15% of animals are likely to dis-

appear by the end of the century, and that

fish catches could decline by as much as

a quarter relative to average levels be-

tween 1986 and 2005.

Farther towards the poles, the perma-

frost—permanently frozen soil—is at

risk. Even if the average global tempera-

ture increase is limited to 2°C above

pre-industrial levels—already an ambi-

tious target—a quarter will thaw. If

greenhouse-gas emissions and tempera-

tures increase further, almost 70% of this

near-surface permafrost could melt.

Frozen in that earth are 1,460-1,600 giga-

tons of carbon, says the report, almost

twice the amount already in the atmo-

sphere, much of which could be released

if the soil thaws.

The ipccprocess is rooted in science

but reaching any consensus is tricky. The

politics demand some sacrifices. Big

producers of fossil fuels such as Saudi

Arabia, for example, often quibble with

the strong conclusions in such reports.

For the sake of unanimity, some of the

language was weakened. Even so, this

latest report provides a new, unified

portrait of Earth’s oceans and ice realms

that should better inform policymakers.

And better informed could mean better

protected.

Sea changes

The world’s oceans

Oceans are increasingly bearing the brunt of global warming

*Averagedover100-600metredepth

Troubled waters

Source:IPCC

Global oceans, under different scenarios

Surface pH

Change in units relative

to 1850-1900 average

O2 concentration*

% change relative to

1850-1900 average

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

1900 2000 2100

F’CAST

Very high

emissions

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1900 2000 2100

F’CAST

Very low

emissions

Correction: Omissions in a chart on emission

scenarios in last week’s briefing, "What goes up",

made it appear than a number of those scenarios

would avoid 1.5°C of warming. They would not, and

the chart has been corrected online. Sorry.