Washington Report On Middle East Affairs – October 2018

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMPhas reimposed an old set of

American sanctions on Iran, as well as new ones following his

abandonment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

(JCPOA) in May.

For regional neighbors Lebanon and Iraq, these sanctions

could not have come at a worse time. Both are in the throes of

political crises that threaten their fragile democracies. Both need

to avoid the complications arising out of a poorly-thought-out

Trump decision.

In fact, if the Trump administration wants to help its friends in

the Arab world, it would do well to try to blunt the impact of these

sanctions on these two countries.

On Aug. 6, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on the use of dollar

bank notes in Iran’s trade transactions, which had been permit-

ted when the Islamic Republic signed the JCPOA, or Iran nu-

clear deal, in July 2015.

Another oil-related batch of sanctions will be imposed on Nov.

5 and are likely to reduce Iran’s exports by about 500,000 barrels

per day, thus disrupting international energy markets and caus-

ing a price increase of about $20 per barrel.

In fact, aside from the domestic impact in Iran, these measures

are likely to cause global financial and commodity disruptions that

will be felt by large and

small economies.

Given their economic re-

lationship with the United

States and the American

currency, Lebanon and Iraq

have no recourse but to

abide by what Washington

wants.

But,unfortunatelyforthe

twocountries,thedevilisin

thedetailsoftheirpolitical

realities.Bothcurrentlyhave

caretakergovernmentsthat

preventthemfrommaking

firm decisions on compli-

ancewithsanctions.

Both have pro-Iranian

political forces that oppose

the sanctions—seeing them

as a foreign tool to effect regime change in Tehran—and con-

sider it their duty to help defend the current regime.

LEBANON’S TROUBLE

Lebanon’s parliamentary elections last May produced a small ma-

jority for Iran-supported Hezbollah and its affiliated political fac-

tions. Their approval of government policies, domestic and foreign,

is pivotal.

American-friendly Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri can-

not form a cabinet without the support of the Party of God. But

this support is not automatic and does not come cheap. Hezbol-

lah has previously used its political and military power to impose

conditions on the Lebanese state and successive governments.

This time is no different.

While abiding by some sensitivities regarding Lebanon’s sec-

tarian politics and relations with the United States, Hezbollah is

not likely to accept a full compliance with American sanctions.

Obliquely sending a message to his political adversaries, in-

cluding Hariri, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah

predicted on Aug. 14 that the sanctions will fail. He also declared

his belief in the resilience of the Iranian regime, and that the

Trump administration is merely “building dreams.”

Hezbollah—considered a terrorist organization by the United

States—has itself been chafing under American sanctions. What

An Iraqi vendor sells Iranian currency in a street in Najaf on Aug. 14, 2018. Iraqis in the holy city of Najaf are

being hit hard by U.S. sanctions on neighboring Iran, which have forced cash-strapped pilgrims to stay home.

Imad K. Harb is the director of research and analysis at the Arab

Center Washington DC. Published on LobeLog, Aug. 26, 2018.

Reprinted with permission.

OCTOBER 2018 WASHINGTON REPORT ON MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS

Pushing Beirut and Baghdad to Comply with

Iran Sanctions is Risky Business By Imad K. Harb

Special Report

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