10 | New Scientist | 21 May 2022
Analysis Climate change
THE presentation by Sebastian
Mernild pulled no punches. As
more than 40 nations met in
Copenhagen, Denmark, last week
to discuss progress since 2021’s
COP26 climate summit, the
glaciologist greeted ministers with
jagged red lines showing rising
global temperatures. He reminded
them that emissions are still
growing, and told them their
goal of holding temperature rise
to 1.5°C needs nothing less than
“rapid, deep and sustained” cuts
to greenhouse gases.
“They all know what we are
facing scientifically regarding
1.5°C,” says Mernild, who is at the
University of Southern Denmark.
Whether they are acting on that
knowledge is another question.
Half a year on from a deal at COP
in Glasgow, UK, it is far from clear
if countries are delivering on the
commitments they made.
COP26 president Alok
Sharma said on 15 May that
failure by world leaders to deliver
on their pledges would be a
“monstrous act of self-harm”.
Speaking in Glasgow, he said he
could understand why action to
cut emissions had been pushed
out of the spotlight by the war
in Ukraine and the cost-of-living
crisis, but reminded his audience
that “climate change is a chronic
danger” the world can’t ignore.
One of the headline promises
of the Glasgow Climate Pact was
that this year, 196 countries would
“revisit and strengthen” their
plans for curbing emissions by- Without stronger plans,
the target of keeping below 1.5°C
of warming will be out of reach.
Sharma said that the UK
government is looking at
ways to strengthen its 2030
national climate plan, but
to date, no countries have
formally submitted a blueprint
that goes further than what they
PA
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IMAGESDelegates at the COP
gathering in Glasgow, UK,
in November 202136.3 Gt
The world’s energy-related CO 2
emissions hit a record in 2021Countries drag their feet on COP26 pledges Six months
on, we are still waiting to see improved climate plans that were
promised at the summit in the UK, reports Adam VaughanNews
promised before or at COP26.
Those close to the UN climate
talks process say that it is unlikely
any action to step up national
plans will be seen until much
closer to COP27, the next big
climate summit in November,
due to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh,
Egypt. There is an expectation
that at least the host nation
will cough up a new version
of its intended carbon cuts.
Beyond that, figures in climate
diplomacy think the best that can
be hoped for in revised national
plans are tougher emissions
targets for individual sectors,
such as forests or cars, rather
than more sweeping targets.
Pete Betts at the London School
of Economics, a former lead
climate negotiator for the UK and
the European Union, says large,
developed economies had already
set ambitious targets ahead of
COP26. The US promised to halve
its emissions by 2030. But none
of the big emerging economies,
with the exception of South Africa,
made significant moves.
“I’m afraid it was pretty clear
in Glasgow that we were unlikely
to see these revisions [to climate
plans in 2022]. Because if they
were going do it, they would havedone it in Glasgow. All the signals
are that it’s not going to happen in
Sharm El-Sheikh, unfortunately,”
says Betts. There is no sign that
Egypt is putting pressure on other
countries to raise their ambitions,
as the UK did ahead of COP26.
“I see very little political
energy being put into that
right now,” says Carne Ross of
the think tank E3G, referring to
the likelihood of tougher climate
plans. “I think the big issue on the
climate front at the moment is
Ukraine. It’s really stealing all the
political attention away from
everything else,” he says.
One bright spot this year is that
the new German government,
which was formed by a coalition
including the country’s Green
party, is using its presidency of
the G20 group of leading world
economies to push for continued
action on climate change. Another
potential positive is that Australia
and Brazil could both elect
governments that produce
bold new plans. “I think that’s
the hope,” says Ross.
The news is worse on other
pledges made in Glasgow. Nearly
200 nations promised to embark
on “phasing down coal”. Coal
production is forecast to increase
in China and the US this year. And
India has relaxed environmental
rules to ramp up coal mining, to
cope with power demand amid
a heatwave – possibly fuelled by
climate change and coal burning.
COP27 is less than six months
away, but it hasn’t got an official
website yet. Jim Skea at the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change recently said the
1.5°C goal will be “gone” if stronger
national climate plans don’t
materialise by the time thousands
of delegates descend on Sharm El-
Sheikh. Despite the resort’s sunny
reputation, that is looking an
increasingly gloomy prospect. ❚COP26 president Alok
Sharma at a meeting in
Copenhagen last weekPHILIPDAVA
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