30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 15-FEBRUARY 1, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst
DEFENSEdealing with a target just like that,”
says Trotsky about hypersonic boost
glide vehicles. “That kind of a target
is designed to find a seam between
systems like Patriot... and the Aegis
weapon system. Because Thaad oper-
ates both in the endoatmosphere and
the exoatmosphere, it has intercept
capability in the region where that
threat flies. The [ER] version would
extend our battlespace against that
kind of threat.”
Lockheed Martin has been hon-
ing its Thaad-ER concept for nearly
10 years. Thaad is a $3.8 billion pro-
gram, and Lockheed invested its own
research funding to explore the ER de-
sign. A full development for Thaad-ER
could cost as much as $1 billion.
With MDA’s annual unclassified
budget hovering under $8 billion and
with MDA focused on shoring up the
Ground-Based Midcourse Defense
program, Thaad-ER has not become
a priority. The Ofce of the Secretary
of Defense is balancing various priori-
ties and directives from Congress to
cut spending. If, however, a Republi-
can candidate wins the White House
in 2016, it is likely MDA’s budget will
receive a boost. And this would be an
opportunity for Lockheed to obtain
funding for the development work.
MDA spokesman Rick Lehner says
Thaad-ER is not a program of record,
meaning it has not received develop-
ment or design funding from the agen-
cy. “It is an industry concept we are
evaluating and nothing more.”
However, Lockheed is restarting
its Thaad-ER campaign now, in an at-
tempt to exploit this narrow window
of opportunity. Although Thaad-ER
would provide some capability against
a rudimentary hypersonic threat, it is
not an optimal solution, the industry
source says. Ideally, the Pentagon
hopes to have matured other technolo-
gies—such as railguns or directed en-
ergy—to counter the threat. But those
are not expected until the mid-to-late
2020s. Until then, Thaad-ER could fill
a gap. To do so, it would need to start
no later than the fiscal 2018 budget
cycle, the first to be delivered to Con-
gress from President Barack Obama’s
successor. This schedule is expected
to produce a fielded product in 2022.
All of the current Pentagon intercep-
tors “stink against this [hypersonic]
threat if it has significant cross-rangecapability,” the industry source says,
noting Russia’s work is more advanced
than China’s. “Thaad will be the best of
the dogs, but it is still a dog. If you re-
ally want to go prime time... you need
something... that has a very, very, very
quick time of flight.”
Today’s Thaad booster is 14.5 in. in
diameter, and features a single-stage
design. Static fire trials for a prototype
of a 21-in. first stage, as well as a sec-
ond, “kick-stage,” were conducted by
propulsion subcontractor Aerojet in
2006, Tom McGrath, who was a Lock-
heed Martin vice president during that
time, told Aviation Week in 2009.
Funding for this early work on both
stages came from Lockheed Martin’s
international R&D accounts from
2006-08, he said in the interview.
The increased diameter for thefirst stage is designed to expand the
interceptor’s range. The second stage
or “kick-stage,” would then close the
distance to the target and provide im-
proved velocity at burnout, Trotsky
told reporters during a Jan. 7 media
teleconference. Higher velocity at
burnout allows for improved divert
capability, or more lateral movement
during an engagement, which is need-
ed for maneuverable targets.
“We continue to work on the booster
stack and some of the system engi-
neering that has to be done to [final-
ize] the design. I think what you will
see from MDA is an acceleration of
some of that engineering work in the
next few years, because of the kinds of
threats we are seeing being developed
by some of our adversaries.”
Thaad-ER’s larger booster design
does not require changes to the Thaad
kill vehicle. But the ground-based
launcher design would have to be
modified. Five of the 21-in. interceptors
would fit into the launcher that now car-
ries eight of the 14.5-in. boosters today.
However, some in the Pentagon
leadership believe that this design
approach is too conservative for the
potential $1 billion development cost,
the industry source says. Lockheed’s
approach is conservative largely due to
the company’s botched ambitions for
the baseline Thaad, which required a
stand-down for a full system redesign
more than a decade ago. “Some believe
that Lockheed Martin overlearned risk
aversion on Thaad,” the source notes.
So it’s possible that the company could
spend the next year ramping up both
its sales campaign and its design.
A company spokeswoman declined
to provide updated details on the
Thaad-ER design beyond what Avia-
tion Week previously reported.
Meanwhile, the Army is expecting
to activate its fifth Thaad battery this
year and deliveries from the first for-
eign military sales customer, the Unit-
ed Arab Emirates, are slated to begin
next year. The Pentagon has notified
Congress of a potential sale to Qatar
as well.
Lockheed Martin is hoping the
Pentagon will opt to embark on a
multiyear procurement of Thaad in-
terceptors, Trotsky says. The goal is
to arrange a deal for 150 missiles for
sale over five years. Multiyear pro-
curements require substantial cost
savings from industry, but provide
stability for the supply system. cThaad is capable of a ballistic missile intercept, as shown from infrared sen-
sors, both inside the atmosphere and in space.