Aviation Week & Space Technology - 3 November 2014

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/NOVEMBER 3/10, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst

Bradley Perrett Beijing

Under Pressure

Even with economical new launchers, Chinese

ofcials doubt they can match SpaceX

F

or more than 40 years, China

has relied on a rocket technology

the rest of the world has largely

dropped for main space-launch propul-

sion. But now, moving from hydrazine

propellant and its easily developed

engines to the harder technology of

kerosene, liquid hydrogen and liquid

oxygen, the Chinese industry is

introducing a family of launch-

ers that should be more effi-

cient and therefore more cost

efective.

Consistent with that, Space

Exploration Technologies

(SpaceX) sees its most intense

competition for low-Earth orbit

(LEO) space launch services

coming from China. But it looks

like CASC, the Chinese govern-

ment’s main space industrial

group, cannot match SpaceX

when it comes to cost. This is

especially important for what

will probably be the key mem-

ber of the new Chinese family,

the Long March 7, a medium-

heavy launcher in the class of

the SpaceX Falcon 9 that, ac-

cording to the 2013 schedule,

was due to fly this year.

The new family has three

members. The largest, the Long March

5, has a core propelled by engines

burning liquid hydrogen with liquid

oxygen, but otherwise the family is

based largely on core stages and boost-

ers sharing the same kerosene-fueled

engines and airframe modules. One of

the modules, serving as the core first

and second stages of the Long March

7 and the first stage of its little sibling,

Long March 6, has a diameter of 3.35

meters (11 ft.). That is the standard

diameter of current launchers, Long

March 2, 3 and 4, so much of the exist-

ing fabrication machinery can be used.

While engine and airframe costs are

thereby maximized, fuel and launch-

related expenses are reduced by elimi-

nating hydrazine, a toxic propellant that

is costly to make and handle and is no

longer used for first and second stages

in other countries.

All these economies are not enough,

it seems. As early as 2010, managers of

CASC’s launcher subsidiary, CALT, ex-

pressed concern about SpaceX’s pric-

es, suggesting that the U.S. company

was imperiling a strategy based on

what they had previously thought were

China’s unbeatably low costs. More re-

cently, they have been saying directly

that they cannot match SpaceX, notes

Phil Smith of consultancy Tauri Group.

The Falcon 9 can deliver 13.15 met-

ric tons to LEO; the equivalent Long

March 7 version, with two engines of

260,000-lb. thrust in the core first stage

and one in each of four boosters, is in-

tended to throw 13.5 tons to LEO, the

main market in which the Chinese can

bid for international business. SpaceX

quotes a standard price of $61.2 mil-

lion for a launch in 2016. CASC has not

published a price for the Long March 7,

but Tauri says that the most powerful

of the current Chinese launchers, the

Long March 3B—capable of launching

12 tons to low Earth orbit—is $70 mil-

lion a shot.

The diference does not appear to be

great, raising the question of why the

Chinese are concerned.

Part of CASC’s problem must be

that it has to recover development

costs. And the Long March 7’s new

components, especially its engines, will

be expensive at first, when few have

been made and the production rate is

low. Military launches would help push

the Long March 7 along the learning

curve—if the generals are prepared

to risk their satellites on a new rocket.

Labor rates in China are low by West-

ern standards, but factories with the

entrenched culture of monopoly state

suppliers to a Communist military are

not known for their efciency.

Also, CASC is building a new launch

base on Hainan, an island that afords

the launch benefits of a latitude of only

about 18 deg. north. The base may have

been paid for by the military, CASC’s

main customer. If not, then it is prob-

ably burdening the launcher program.

Until last year, the Long March 7

was scheduled to fly in 2013. The first

launch was then pushed to 2014. The

year is not over yet, but there has been

little activity to suggest that a first

flight is imminent. Indeed, CASC has

still been involved with major develop-

ment aspects in recent months. That

work may give a clue to difculties that

have been encountered.

In particular, CASC said in July that

the propulsion system of the Long

March 7 had passed a second test that

had mainly validated what it called the

system for high-pressure supply (of

propellant, presumably) and the “com-

patibility with the engine, control sys-

tem, measurement system and launch

ground support system.” Developers

implemented more than 10 changes to

address weak links revealed in a first

test, CASC says. “The whole test pro-

gram is normal,” it adds. “All test data

is matching predictions. The changes

have been efective.” This was also the

last test for the first stage, indicating

that its development is complete, the

manufacturer says. Last year a senior

CALT ofcial said the engines for the

new family were ready and were not

the cause of delays, although he did not

say what was.

Long March 7 tests continued in

August, when CASC reported that the

low-temperature gas tank of the Long

March 7 booster had successfully un-

dergone a blast test.

CASC’s full name is China Aero-

space Science & Technology Corp. and

CALT’s is China Academy of Launch

Vehicle Technology. c

ZHUHAI 2014

LM-5

GTO

14 tons

LM-6

SSO (700 km)

500 kg

LM-7

LEO

13.5 tons

China’s new launchers share

engines and airframe modules.

CHINA ACADEMY OF LAUNCH VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY

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