34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 30-APRIL 12, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awstBradley PerrettLangkawi, MalaysiaOil Pressure
The Saab Gripen is probably
a candidate for Malaysia
again amid budget pinch
F
our years ago, Malaysia issued
a brief request for proposals for
fighters. With the two primary
parts of its territory separated by the
South China Sea, the country wanted
twin-engine aircraft, eliminating the
economical option of the Saab Gripen.
But crude oil, a key factor support-
ing the national fi nances, traded above
$100 per barrel back then. These days,
the price is about half as much and the
Malaysian budget is a good deal tighter.
“I don’t think the requirement for
two engines is set in stone,” says Kaj
Rosander, head of major programs for
Saab. He sees the Malaysian order,
likely to be placed in 2016-20, as one
of four serious prospects in Southeast
Asia for the Gripen C/D.
The other contenders are larger,
have two engines and should be some-
what more expensive: the Eurofi ghter
Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, Boeing F/A-
18E/F Super Hornet and possibly the
Sukhoi Su-30.
Malaysia needs fi ghters to replace
MiG-29s under the Multi-Role Com-
bat Aircraft program. It introduced
18 MiG-29s in the early 1990s, but
only about 10 remain in service. The
industry has been expecting Malaysia
to order about 18 replacement fi ghters,
but that fi gure is probably not fi rm.
Saab expects Malaysia to adopt the
increasingly common practice of speci-
fying a required capability, measured
as annual available fl ight time, rather
than a certain number of aircraft. The
Swedish company believes 16 Gripen
C/Ds could meet the target.
The timing of the program is not
ideal for Boeing. No decision is likely
within a year, but Boeing’s Super Hor-
net program manager, Dan Gillan, said
this month that the company would
have to decide by the middle of the yearwhether to support continued produc-
tion. The last Super Hornet on order is
not due for delivery until 2017, but parts
for further units will have to be ordered
much sooner.
So to remain a candidate for Malaysia,
the Super Hornet will need additional
orders from the U.S. Navy or prospec-
tive customers Denmark and Kuwait.
Australia has decided not to buy more.
Howard Berry, vice president for
Super Hornet sales, emphasizes the
payload-range capability of his candi-
date , which has twice the empty weight
of the Gripen C/D. It also has the ad-
vantage that the Royal Malaysian Air
Force already operates the F/A-18D
Hornet, of which the Super Hornet is
an enlarged derivative.
Since the eight Hornets are 18 years
old, they may also be replaced by what-
ever type replaces the MiG-29. Malay-
sia also has 18 Su-30MKMs. Like some
other Southeast Asian countries, Ma-
laysia buys military aircraft in batches
that would elsewhere be considered
uneconomically small.
The British government is backing
Eurofi ghter, notably by supporting a
BAE Systems plan to help Malaysia set
up an indigenous electronic-warfare
capability, says Andy Lavin, BAE’s
program director for the country.
Saab, Boeing and BAE represen-
tatives spoke to Aviation Week at
the Langkawi International Mari-
time and Aerospace Exhibition this
month. Officials from Dassault and
Sukhoi representative Rosoboronex-
port were not available at the show.
But Dassault has said that it and Ra-
fale suppliers Snecma and Thales are
“of ering a large and complete pack-
age of technological and industrial
cooperation.” Malaysian companies
would become suppliers for Rafaleproduction and for its other programs.
The clear advantage of the Gripen
C/D is that, as a small, single-engine
aircraft, it is relatively budget-friendly.
Malaysia wants all the candidates to
ease the fiscal pressure by offering
leases, an area in which the Swedish
company has experience ; the Czech Re-
public and Hungary lease their Gripens.
Saab must of er C/D-version Gripens ,
because the enlarged E/F, which will re-
place the C/D in production, must fi rst
be built for Sweden and Brazil. If Saab
stops C/D production before Malaysia
orders, then Saab could fi nd another
way of supplying them aircraft of that
version, says Rosander. He declined to
be more specifi c, but an obvious source
would be second-hand units, possibly
remanufactured from the earlier A/B
standard.
By coincidence or not, none of the
candidate fighters is in Singapore’s
inventory or its planning strategy. Ma-
laysia and Singapore have a somewhat
rivalrous relationship. The latter coun-
try operates Lockheed Martin F-16s
and Boeing F-15s, and is considering
the F-35.
But Indonesia, the other neighbor
that is among Malaysia’s major stra-
tegic concerns, has Su-30s and might
order Gripens. Saab also sees opportu-
nities in Thailand, which already has 12
Gripens, as well as in the Philippines.
Indonesia needs replacements for
F-5 fighters, delivered in the 1980s,
that can have scant military value. An
obvious alternative is the Su-30, since
the country already operates that type.
But the Korea Aerospace Industries
FA-50, which is in Indonesian service,
is probably not. Even though it is the
same size as the Gripen C/D and uses
the same engine, it is fi tted only as a
trainer and light attacker.
Similarly, the Gripen C/D will be a
candidate in the Philippines—another
FA-50 customer—should that country
move to acquire an air-to-air capabil-
ity. Rosander says Saab is staying in
touch with of cials in Manila.
Saab expects Thailand to buy about
six more C/Ds, but probably not until
the political situation is more settled.
The army took power last year.
Indonesia seems likely to place a
fi ghter order before Malaysia. Although
the timing of fi ghter orders is hard to
predict, Thailand is probably the third-
most imminent prospect for Saab in
Southeast Asia; the Philippines is the
most distant. cDEFENSEMalaysia is one of four
prospective Southeast
Asian customers for the
Saab Gripen. Thailand
already has 12.SAAB