The Times - UK (2022-05-25)

16 2GM Wednesday May 25 2022 | the times

News

Russian forces were on the verge of
encircling the Ukrainian city of Severo-
donetsk in the Donbas region last night
in what is becoming the crucial battle of
the war.
Two wings of the Russian advance
are only about 15 miles apart. If they
meet they will trap Ukrainian forces in
a pocket containing Severodonetsk, the
neighbouring town of Lysychansk and
a string of other towns and villages.
Russia was “throwing” troops and
equipment into the battle, Vadym Prys-
taiko, Ukraine’s ambassador in London,
said. He said Moscow had accumulated
enough troops to reach “some of their
goals” locally. “We hope that they will
soon go back to [their] homes,” he told
TalkTV. “But they’re throwing in more
and more soldiers.”
Prystaiko said the Russians were also
bringing in more equipment.
Severodonetsk is the largest city re-
maining in Ukrainian hands in the
Luhansk region, one of two “breakaway
republics” loyal to Moscow in the far
east of the country, along with Donetsk
to its southwest.
The city has held out since the start of
the Russian invasion in February. But
the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv and
other parts of the north at the end of the
first stage of the war has allowed them
to concentrate manpower, tanks and
artillery in Donbas, adding 30 more
battalion tactical groups, the main
fighting unit of the Russian army.
Ukrainian defences have begun to
crumble in the past three weeks, with
Russians gaining crucial towns such as
Popasna to the immediate south of Sev-
erodonetsk. They also blew up the main
bridge to Severodonetsk’s rear,
connecting it to Lysychansk.
In its latest assessment, the UK
Ministry of Defence said Ukrainian
forces fighting in Luhansk were facing
sustained attempts to sever supply lines
and stop reinforcements of western
weapons, which have become an im-
portant element of the fighting.
“Russia’s capture of the Severo-
donetsk pocket would see the whole of
Luhansk oblast [region] placed under
Russian occupation,” it said.
Western officials presented an even
gloomier prospect for Ukrainian forces
privately, saying they believed it was
only a matter of time before Russia en-
circled the pocket.
Yesterday Russian forces also ad-
vanced to the edges of Donetsk. They
captured the town of Svitlodarsk, 50

miles from Severodonetsk, and two

other settlements near by.

“Now we are observing the most

active phase of the full-scale aggression

which Russia launched against our

country,” Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, a

Ukrainian defence ministry spokes-

man, said. “The situation on the eastern

front is extremely difficult, because the

fate of this country is perhaps being de-

cided right now.”

The Centre for Defence Strategies, a

Ukraine-based think tank, said Russian

troops and their proxies were advanc-

ing at high speed. They were only a mile

away from the T1302 road that serves as

the main logistics route for Ukrainian

troops in the pocket.

“The Russians are constantly ad-

vancing at high speed from Popasna to

the north, bypassing the Ukrainian

troops, which are holding Komyshuva-

kha, Khram Sviatogo, Katerinivka and

Hirske,” it said.

Franz-Stefan Gady, a research fellow

at the International Institute for Strate-

gic Studies in London, said cutting

Ukraine off from the T1302 would

“massively complicate” the supply of

Ukrainian forces. He said the road was

already in range of Russian artillery.

“Russian forces are slowly but me-

thodically advancing and are systemat-

ically trying to cut off Ukrainian forces

from their supply lines,” he said. “The

situation for Ukrainian forces is in-

creasingly becoming critical as there is

mounting anecdotal evidence that they

are running low on ammunition, fuel

and other supplies.”

There are an estimated 15,000 civil-

ians in Severodonetsk, suffering under

some of the most intensive shelling of

the war to date outside Mariupol.

Few observers expect the Ukrainian

defences to hold indefinitely. But

Ukraine and its supporters in the West

hope that they will inflict such heavy

losses on the Russian side that, with

new supplies of more advanced weap-

onry arriving, the Ukrainians will be

able to launch a counteroffensive

against a weakened and over-stretched

opposition.

They point to a new intelligence

claim by the Ukrainian general staff

that Russian forces were taking

60-year-old T-62 tanks out of storage

to supplement their forces.

The Ministry of Defence said that

winning the whole of Luhansk would

stretch and weaken Russia’s own supply

lines. However, the damage being done

to Ukraine’s manpower is also severe.

Kyiv’s worst fear is that if Russia takes

all of Donetsk and Luhansk, it will de-

clare its mission complete and press for

a ceasefire, with not only Donbas but

large swathes of southern Ukraine as

far as the Crimea securely under its

control.

6 The US will today close the last

avenue for Russia to pay its billions in

debt back to international investors,

making a Russian default for the first

time since the Bolshevik Revolution all

but inevitable. The Treasury Depart-

ment said in a notification last night

that it did not plan to renew the licence

allowing Russia to keep paying holders

of international bonds through Amer-

ican banks.

Neither side may have the power to make the other accept defeat

Analysis

U

nless

there are

unexpected

changes to

the battle in

the east it is likely that,

with more troops and

more firepower, Russian

soldiers will eventually

surround the pocket of

Ukrainian forces in the

Luhansk region, cutting

them off from supplies

coming from the west

(Larisa Brown writes).

However, some

analysts believe that —

at least in the short term

— President Putin does

not have the military

means to capture the

entire Donbas region.

George Barros, of the

Institute for the Study of

War, a US think tank,

said if Russia took all of

Luhansk, it would make

a play to the West for a

“Kremlin-preferable

ceasefire”. This would let

Russia lock in its gains,

digest the occupied

territories and set

conditions for their

annexation. It would

also buy time for its

weary troops to regroup.

“Putin can then finish

what he started at a time

and place of his

choosing, and with

better positioning within

Ukraine,” Barros said.

It is not certain how

the Ukrainians would

respond, although

President Zelensky has

said the least his

country would accept in

a peace deal would be

Russia’s withdrawal

from all the territory it

has gained since

February 23. He told the

Chatham House think

tank this month that he

had been elected to be

president of Ukraine,

not of “a rump or

reduced Ukraine”.

Some observers are of

the view that if Ukraine

agreed to some form of

peace deal now, it would

be only a matter of time

before Putin came back

to take more territory.

Western officials believe

that although Russia has

repeatedly moved the

goal posts in terms of its

aims on the battlefield,

Putin’s long-term aim

remains to control all of

Ukraine.

By continuing his

de facto blockade on the

Black Sea port of Odesa,

and having seized

control of Mariupol, he

could slowly strangle

Ukraine’s economy. He

could also continue to

throw more troops at

the problem, hoping to

seize more cities and

wear down Ukrainian

forces.

Vadym Prystaiko, the

Ukrainian ambassador

to London, told The

News Desk on TalkTV

that the Russians were

“recruiting more and

more soldiers, they

bring in them and bring

in equipment”.

However, Michael

Horowitz, a security

analyst, said Russia

could not sustain its

pace of advance given

the huge losses suffered

by its army. He added

that Russia’s long-term

goals had shifted from a

“quick victory to the

slog we are seeing

today”. He added: “This

is a war of attrition, a

long war that I think

Moscow did not want or

plan for.”

AZOV SEA

Melitopol

Mariupol

Severodonetsk

Rubizhne

Luhansk

Kharkiv

Donetsk

Izyum

Chuhuiv

Kreminna

Slovyansk

Kramatorsk

Lyman

Bakhmut

Popasna

Staromlynivka

Donbas

region border

Russian-

held territory

Russian advance

Ukrainian

counter-offensive

Intense fighting in

past 24 hours

LUHANSK

DONETSK

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

50 miles

Sources: Institute

for the Study of War

and AEI’s Critical

Threats Project

Destroyed Russian tanks and military equipment are displayed in a Kyiv square

Russian shelling has devastated apartment blocks in Saltivka on the northern

News War in Ukraine

Putin’s forces move to encircle

Larisa Brown Defence Editor
Richard Spencer Kharkiv