WEDNESDAY, MAY 25 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A
NORTH CAROLINA
Court: Insurrectionists
can be kept from office
Participants in an insurrection
against the U.S. government can
be barred from holding office,
the U.S. Court of Appeals for the
4th Circuit ruled Tuesday.
The decision came in the case
of Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R),
who before losing his House
primary this month faced a
challenge from North Carolina
voters arguing that his actions
around the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S.
Capitol attack made him ineligible
for future public service.
The voting rights group Free
Speech for People is backing
challenges to several
Republicans under a post-Civil
War law that blocks from taking
office anyone “who, having
previously taken an oath, as a
member of Congress ... engaged
in insurrection or rebellion.”
Even though Cawthorn won’t
be on a ballot this fall, the voters
argued that the court had to
overturn a lower court’s opinion
that all insurrectionists, past and
future, were granted amnesty
under another law from the 1870s
that forgave most Confederates. A
three-judge panel of the appeals
court sided with the voters.
Cawthorn has denied any
advance knowledge of plans forviolence.
— Rachel WeinerNEW YORKSuspect arrested in
fatal subway shootingA man suspected of abruptly
pulling a gun and killing a
stranger on a New York City
subway train was arrested
Tuesday, with police saying his
motive for the unprovoked
attack was “a big mystery.”
Andrew Abdullah, 25, was
expected to face a murder charge
in the death of 48-year-old
Daniel Enriquez, who was shot
to death while heading toSunday brunch.
The arrest came hours after
police posted Abdullah’s name
and photo on social media and
implored the public to help find
him.
But after the arrest, police
disclosed that officers briefly
stopped him after the shooting
but let him go because his
clothes didn’t match the
description they were given.
The attack came about six
weeks after 10 people were shot
on another subway train.
Court records show Abdullah,
25, has two open criminal cases
in New York City.
Enriquez worked for the
global investment researchdivision at Goldman Sachs.
— Associated PressOHIOIraqi a ccused of plot
to kill G eorge W. BushAn Iraqi man who came to the
United States two years ago and
applied for asylum hatched a
plot to assassinate former
president George W. Bush in
retaliation for casualties against
his compatriots during the Iraq
War, the government announced
Tuesday.
Shihab Ahmed Shihab Shihab,
52, also schemed to smuggle
other Iraqis into the UnitedStates from Mexico to aid in the
plot, after which they’d be
smuggled out back through
Mexico, according to a criminal
complaint filed in federal court
in Columbus. Shihab insinuated
he had contacts with the Islamic
State group, but it did not appear
the plot came close to
materializing, with confidential
informants briefing the FBI from
April 2021 through this month,
the complaint said. Shihab was
ordered held without bond by
federal Magistrate Judge
Elizabeth Preston Deavers
during a short hearing in court
Tuesday. Deavers scheduled a
detention hearing for Friday.
— Associated PressDIGESTPolitics & the NationHurricanes thrive when water
temperatures reach the lower to
mid-80s. Hurricanes are heat
engines, extracting thermal en-
ergy from “oceanic heat content.”
A greater, deeper reservoir of
exceptionally mild ocean water
translates to more fuel to gener-
ate or sustain a hurricane.
Water temperatures through-
out the entire Gulf of Mexico and
western Atlantic are running 1 to
3 degrees above average. The
unusually warm water boosts the
“potential intensity,” or maxi-
mum theoretical strength, a hur-
ricane can achieve.
The loop current. Some re-
searchers say unusually high
temperatures in the Gulf of Mexi-
co loop current are an ominous
sign for the season ahead. The
loop current is a warm-core eddy
that meanders north of the Flori-
da Straits and Yucatán Peninsula.
The current could give storms an
extra boost if they cross over it —
but it’s one piece in a much larger
atmospheric puzzle.
La Niña. La Niña is a drop-
ping of sea surface temperatures
in the eastern tropical Pacific. Itsets in motion a chain-reaction
process that favors increased At-
lantic hurricane activity. Specifi-
cally, it cools the air over that
relative temperature minimum
in the eastern Pacific, spurring
sinking motion there. That
makes it easier for air over the
Atlantic to rise and feed big
storms.
Wind shear. Wind shear is a
change of wind speed or direc-
tion with height.
Too much shear can disrupt a
fledgling storm’s circulation and
tear it apart before it has the
opportunity to organize. Shear
can also spell the demise of a
strong hurricane.
During La Niña summers,
there’s typically a reduction in
wind shear over the tropical
Atlantic.
That will make it easier for
hurricanes to form and remain
stronger for longer.
NOAA’s outlook also pointed
to “an enhanced African mon-
soon,” which supports more dis-
turbances from Africa entering
Atlantic waters, where they can
develop into storms.Storm season starts June 1
The first storm of 2022, once
it’s named, will be called Alex.
Should all 21 names on the
National Hurricane Center’s list
be used, forecasters will turn to a
supplemental list set of names.
The supplemental list was devel-
oped after the record-setting 30
storms in 2020 that led forecast-
ers to use Greek letters after 21
storms had earned names.
In recent years, an uptick in
early-season storminess has
been noted. NOAA has consid-
ered moving the “official” start of
Atlantic hurricane season from
June 1 to May 15, reflecting
observed trends in a warming
world. That would also match
the May 15 start date of hurricane
season in the Eastern Pacific.
Irrespective of how many
storms form, every year forecast-
ers stress that it takes only one
storm to have a memorable and
potentially devastating impact
on a community. In early May,
the Hurricane Center led a public
awareness campaign to urge pre-
paredness for the upcoming sea-
son.BY MATTHEW CAPPUCCI
AND JASON SAMENOWThe siege of active Atlantic
hurricane seasons will continue
for yet another year, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
ministration predicted Tuesday.
In its annual seasonal outlook,
the agency forecast the seventh
straight above-normal Atlantic
season, with 14 to 21 named
storms — compared with 14 in an
average year — and three to six
major hurricanes, rated Category
3 or higher.
Major hurricanes are of partic-
ular concern, as they tend to
rapidly intensify, or increase by
35 mph or more in wind strength
in 24 hours — leaving coastal
residents with little time to pre-
pare. These major storms are
responsible for the overwhelm-
ing majority of damage because
of wind and ocean surge, the rise
of water above normally dry land
at the coast.
Scientists have observed an
increase in rapidly intensifying
hurricanes over the past few
decades, linked to warming
ocean waters from human-
caused climate change.
NOAA’s outlook for another
busy season follows a devastat-
ing period of heightened storm
activity in the Atlantic. The 2021
season produced 21 named
storms, the third-most on record,
exhausting all of the names of the
National Hurricane Center’s con-
ventional naming list. In 2020, a
record 30 named storms formed.
The two seasons combined pro-
duced the most landfalling
storms on record in the United
States.
The United States saw more
Category 4 and 5 hurricane land-
falls from 2017 to 2021 than from
1963 to 2016.
Every year since 2016 has
generated above-average activity
in the Atlantic, with five Catego-
ry 5 storms roaming the basin
over that period. A seemingly
relentless parade of major hurri-
canes — including Harvey, Irma,
Michael, Laura, Zeta and Ida —
lashed the beleaguered Gulf
Coast during the six-year win-
dow.
The effects of Hurricane Ida
last year were so severe — from
the Gulf Coast to the Northeast —
that the World Meteorological
Organization retired Ida from
the rotating list of hurricane
names. The storm caused 96
deaths as it tracked from Louisi-
ana to Connecticut and was
blamed for $75 billion in dam-
age, the fifth-costliest hurricane
on record in the United States.
Ida, which caused catastroph-
ic flooding in the Northeast —
including New York City — dem-
onstrated how tropical systems
can inundate communities hun-
dreds of miles from where they
first come ashore. Inland flood-
ing has become the leading cause
of fatalities from tropical weath-
er systems in recent years. Scien-
tists have also found human-
caused climate change is intensi-
fying heavy rainfall in these trop-
ical systems.
NOAA released its outlook at a
news conference in New York,
commemorating 10 years since
Superstorm Sandy ravaged the
region in 2012. Sandy, blamed for
$80 billion in damage, is listed as
the fourth-costliest tropical sys-
tem on record.
Sandy was transitioning from
a hurricane to a “post-tropical
cyclone” when it slammed the
Northeast with a massive storm
surge, torrential rain and huge
swath of damaging winds.NOAA’s forecast and a trend
toward better accuracy
Hurricane outlooks made in
the spring have shown consider-
able improvement over the past
decade after not exhibiting much
accuracy from the 1980s through
about 2013, according to re-
searchers at Colorado State Uni-
versity. Here are the numbers
from NOAA’s outlook:
14 to 21 named storms, com-
pared with an annual average of
14.4.
Six to 10 hurricanes, com-
pared with an annual average of
7.2.
Three to six major hurricanes,
compared with an annual aver-
age of 3.2.
NOAA’s outlook stated there is
a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent
chance of a near-normal season
and a 10 percent chance that it
will be below normal.
NOAA’s outlook echoes those
made by several research institu-
tions and private companies.
Colorado State University, for
example, is predicting 19 named
storms, with a 71 percent likeli-
hood that the United States will
be hit by a major hurricane.
Similarly, AccuWeather, the pri-
vate forecast company based in
State College, Pa., is calling for 16
to 20 named storms.
While seasonal hurricane fore-
casts have improved, predictions
of storms once they form have
made even greater strides. The
National Hurricane Center’s
track forecasts have steadily im-
proved, and its average storm
intensity forecast error is now 40
percent less than it was in 2000.
Rick Spinrad, NOAA’s admin-
istrator, anticipates additional
gains.
“NOAA will triple operational
supercomputing capacity this
summer,” Spinrad said at Tues-
day’s news conference. “This up-
grade will allow for higher-reso-
lution earth models that can
handle larger ensembles of mod-
els with more numerous calcula-
tions, more advanced physical
considerations and more ad-
vanced ability to assimilate the
data collected out in the storm.”
To improve its predictions,
NOAA is also operating five Sail-
drones — uncrewed vehicles on
the ocean’s surface — to probe
conditions; extending forecasts
for extreme rainfall potential
three to five days into the future;
and introducing a product to
pinpoint where the peak surge
will occur when a storm is ap-
proaching the coast.Signs of a busy season
Many indicators point toward
the high probability of a busy
season. The position of several
key atmospheric features are
noteworthy, and the ocean ap-
pears primed to support signifi-
cant storms.
Among the elements being
monitored are:
Sea surface temperatures.NOAA forecasts a seventh straight above-normal Atlantic hurricane season
MICHAEL ROBINSON CHAVEZ/THE WASHINGTON POST
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