12 Leaders TheEconomistMay28th 2022
Mr Putin were given an “offramp”, allowing himtoclaimsome
sort of victory at home. Such arguments have anemotionalap
peal. No one wants an endless war. The longer it lasts,themore
people will die, the more homes will be destroyed,themore
Ukraine’s economy will be ravaged, and the moreperilouslythe
supply of grain to the world will be interrupted.IfallowingMr
Putin to save face saves lives, who could object?
Yet it is naive to imagine that Mr Putin is readytomakepeace.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, warnedthisweekthat
talks would merely allow Russia time to dig in andregroup(asit
has in the past), before attacking again. Ukraine’sobjectivere
mains to get “all its territory back”, said Mr Ze
lensky. He implored the West, as he has done re
peatedly since the start of the conflict, to send
more and better weapons so his country can re
pel the invaders. And he spoke of his concern
that the West is not yet truly united in its sup
port of Ukraine.
He is right on all counts. Great dangers lie
ahead for the world if Mr Putin’s aggression is
rewarded; that is, if he gets to keep the land he hasoccupied.Re
member what happened in 2014. With little practical Western
support, Ukraine in effect had to stand by as Russia annexed Cri
mea and then backed a separatist takeover of the eastern part of
Donbas. Eight years later, nothing had been handed back; and Mr
Putin, emboldened by this feeble response, decided to take a sec
ond, and much larger, bite out of a country he has repeatedly
said is nothing but a 20thcentury administrative invention.
If the West now reduces its support for Mr Zelensky and
pushes him into premature talks, what would be the result?
Most likely, that Russia would consolidate its gains; that it
wouldswiftlybreakanyundertakingthatit gave;andthatMrPu
tin’spositionathomewouldbebuttressedbyhisvictory.Thisis,
afterall,what has happenedbefore.Andsooneror laterhe
wouldbetemptedtotryfora thirdbiteatUkraine,orsomewhere
else—suchasGeorgia,Moldova,orevenoneoftheBalticstates.
Furthermore,otherdespotsinotherpartsoftheworldwould
concludethatwarmongeringpays,if youstickatit longenough.
Facedwithdiscontentathome,theywouldseekmartialglory
abroadtodistracttheirpeople,confidentthat anypushback
fromthedemocraticworldwouldbeshortlived.
NosolutioncanbeimposedonUkrainewithouttheconsent
ofUkrainians.MrZelenskyis unlikelytore
maininofficeifhepreemptivelysurrenders
territoryina vainattempttoappeasehisrapa
ciousneighbour.Norwouldtheinhabitantsof
such territory submit meekly to oppressive
Russianrule;theywouldfighta guerrillawar
thatcouldlastforyears.
Fornow,thesituationonthegroundisfluid.
Having pulled back from the north and the
northeast,theRussianshaveuppedthepaceoftheirattacksin
the east, targeting the Ukrainianheld city of Severodonetsk in
Donbas, with the clear aim of cutting off Ukrainian forces and
pushing on to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in an attempt to secure
the entire region. Where Mr Putin will stop is unclear, but unless
he is soundly defeated he will continue to do all he can to cripple
Ukraine. He sees an open, Westernfacing democracy on his
doorstep as a challenge to the inwardlooking autocracy he has
imposed on Russia. He will not let Ukrainians live in peace, so
they have no choice but to standuptohim. The West must go on
helping them until the job is done.n
Odessa
Kharkiv
Severodonetsk
Kyiv
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
MO
LD
OV
A
Donb
as
Crimea
Assessed as Russian-controlled, May 25th 2
D
ictators seldomimprove with age or time in office. As they
grow accustomed to untrammelled power, they forget why
restraint is a virtue. As they punish truthtellers, they hear more
lies. After years of tyrannising their own people, they wonder if
they can get away with bullying foreigners, too. Vladimir Putin
and Kim Jong Un are not the only despots who menace their
neighbours. Eritrea’s Issaias Afwerki is equally malign.
He is the only leader his country has known in three decades
of independence. He has turned it into a hot, dusty prison camp.
He has fought wars against two neighbours, stirred up trouble in
several others and, in 2020, sent troops into Ethiopia’s civil war,
where he is seen as the main obstacle to ending that bloody con
flict. Restraining him would be a public good.
Little is known about life in Eritrea under Issaias. His regime
allows no free press and keeps out foreigners, particularly jour
nalists. Travelling incognito, The Economist recently gained a
rare glimpse inside the secretive gulag state (see Middle East &
Africa section). Our reporter found a country that has taken an
even grimmer turn after 19 months of war. Shops are almost
bare. In Asmara, the capital, cafés that once buzzed are now
empty. Young people are afraid to leave home, in case they are
pressganged into the army—a horrific prospect.
Issaias rules by fear. Honest advice is unwelcome, much less
criticism. Early in his rule soldiers complained that they had not
been paid for two years and were unhappy that he wanted to
withhold their wages for another four. He met them, heard their
grievances, then locked up their leaders for 14 years. A few years
later, when 15 senior members of his party signed a letter calling
for democracy and human rights, Issaias tossed most of them
into a secret prison. They have not been seen since.
Torture is common. Political prisoners—or even people who
follow religions other than the four that are officially recog
nised—are locked in shipping containers in the desert sun, of
ten without food or water. Some are subjected to the “helicopter”
(lying facedown with their hands and feet tied together behind
their backs) or “8” (being tied to a tree) for up to 48 hours.
Conscription lasts indefinitely: some Eritreans are dis
charged from the army only after 20 years or more of building
roads, digging ditches or fighting. The young are barred from
leaving the country. Thousands sneak across the border to Su
dan and then on to claim asylum, often in Europe.
Eritrea also has a history of stirring up trouble with its neigh
bours by backing insurgents and proxies. In 1998 it fought a war
with Ethiopia that cost perhaps 70,000 lives over a stretch of
An arms embargo and sanctions should be reimposed on Issaias Afwerki’s regime
Containing the North Korea of Africa
Eritrea