The Economist - UK (2022-05-28)

40 TheAmericas TheEconomistMay28th 2022

half of Colombia’s exports, would be

banned.Universityeducationwillbemade

free.Tradedealsare to berenegotiated,

mostimportantlywiththeUnitedStates.

MrPetroplanstopayforthisbyclamp­

ingdownontaxevasion,reducingexemp­

tionsandraisingtaxesonagriculturales­

tateswhichare“unproductive”,a termhe

hasnotdefined.Hethinksthis,andpen­

sion reforms, will increase government

revenuesby5.5%overfouryears.

Hispoliciesareunlikelytobecost­neu­

tral.WealthyColombiansalreadyappearto

bemovingtheirmoneyoutofthecountry

tohedgeagainsthisvictory.TheMiamiAs­

sociationofRealtorssaysmoreColombi­

anssearcheditswebsiteforpropertyin

Marchthandidsofromanywhereelse.Mr

Petrosaysgrowthintourismandagricul­

turewillmakeupforshortfallscreatedby

hisbanonoilandgasexploration.Butto

replacerevenuefromhydrocarbons,Co­

lombiawouldneedtoreelinasmanytour­

istsasArgentinaandBrazilcombined.

MrPetrohasa reputationforbeinghard

toworkwith.Some 60 officialsresignedor

weresackedduringhisfouryearsasmayor

ofBogotá.Onewroteanopenletterwarn­

ingthat“aleft­wingdespotdoesnotstop

beinga despotjustbecauseheisfromthe

left”.InthatlightoneofMrPetro’scommit­

ments, to “democratise institutions”,

soundsconcerning.Moderateshopethat

thefragmentedCongresselectedinMarch,

inwhichMrPetro’scoalitionlacksa major­

ity,willforcehimtobuildalliances.

MrPetro’sstrengthspookedColombian

elitesintherun­uptotheelection.Inthe

primaries inMarchtheychose Federico

Gutiérrez,a formermayorofMedellín,Co­

lombia’ssecondcity,torunagainsthim.

Thehopeisthathiseverymanpersona—he

goesbyhisnicknameFico—cancounter

MrPetro’sfustiermanner.Theyalsohoped

thathisstatusasa relativelyindependent

candidatewouldprovidesomecoverfor

theirunpopularpolitics.

Thisplanworkedatfirst.Unknownbe­

yondMedellínbeforetheprimaries,with­

inthreemonthsa quarteroftheelectorate

saidtheyplannedtovoteforFico.

Buthisrisehasstalled.Formany,Mr

Gutiérrezisa candidateofcontinuity.All

ofColombia’straditionalpartiesbackhim.

Some of his policies are moderate. Al­

thoughhevotedforthepeacedealof2016,

thesupportheenjoysfromlandholding

elitesandright­wingpartiesthatopposed

it maylimithisabilitytocarryoutitsland­

reformmandates.“Myworry isthatthe

peacedealwouldbeabandonedandleftto

die,”saysYesidReyes,a formerMinisterof

Justice,whohelpeddesigntheagreement.

MrDuquehasbeenslowtomakethe

changesrequiredby thepeacedeal.Just

4%oftheland­reformmeasuresmandated

intheaccordhavebeenputinplacesinceit

wassigned,accordingtotheKrocInstitute

forInternationalPeaceStudiesattheUni­

versity ofNotreDame inIndiana. More

than 1,000 environmental and human­

rights leaderswerekilledoverthesame

period,mostlybynewarmedgroupsthat

emergedtofillthevacuumleftbehindby

thefarc.Thatiswhatthemandatesofthe

peaceaccordweredesignedtofill.More

than 300 ex­farc combatants who laid

downtheirarmshavealsobeenmurdered.

Theconstraintsonthedegreetowhich

Mr Gutiérrez wouldbe able to improve

this,alongwithhisestablishmentcreden­

tials,havecreatedspaceforanotherchal­

lengertoMrPetro.RodolfoHernández,a

populistoutsider,hassurgedinthepolls

inthepastthreeweeks.Heisnowtiedwith

MrGutiérrez.A77­yearoldformermayor

ofBucaramanga,a mid­sizecitynearthe

Venezuelan border,he madehismoney

buildinghomesforthepoor.Hehasbeen

recordedsayingthatthekeytobecoming

wealthywasfinancingthepurchaseofhis

slumhomes,notjustbuildingthem:“Icol­

lectthemortgages,whicharethecashcow.

Justimagine, 15 yearsofa littlemanpaying

meinterest.It’sdelicious.”

This sort of unpleasantness is the

norm.MrHernándezwassuspendedtwice

whenhewasmayor,onceforslappinga ci­

ty legislator and once for campaigning

while holding public office, which is

bannedinColombia.Heresignedshortly

beforetheendofhisterm.

Mr Hernándezblames corruptionfor

mostofColombia’sproblems.Thischimes

withvoters’mood.Assoonasheispresi­

dent,hesays,hewillstartsellingoffthe

presidentialcarsandplanes.Hewantsto

close Colombia’s embassies and consu­

latesbecausethecivilservantsemployed

there“don’tdoanywork”.Othercountries’

representativesaretobeservednothing

morethantapwaterwhentheyvisitthe

presidentialpalace.Allthisisironicgiven

thatMrHernándezisduetobetriedfor

corruptioninJuly.

TikTokvsTrotsky

MrHernández’s populist bombast lends

himananti­establishmentairwhichmay

provideanedgeoverMrPetroifthepair

endupfacingoffinJune.MrPetrohasrun

forpresidenttwicebefore,andhasbeena

memberofCongressfordecades.MrHer­

nández reaches his supporters through

TikTok,a social­mediaapp,whereheposts

goofyvideosplayingonhisseptuagenar­

iancharm.Heispronetogaffes.In 2016 he

saidthathewasa “greatfollower”ofAdolf

Hitler.(Heapologisedlastyear,afterhede­

claredhispresidentialcandidacy,andsaid

hehadbeenthinkingofAlbertEinstein.)

MrHernández’spolicyproposalsarea

mixedbag.Theplanistocutdomestictax­

esbut raise agriculturaltariffs. He rails

against international institutions, but

seemstolikesomeofwhattheydo.His

programmemakesrepeated,positivemen­

tionsofcop26,aunclimate­changecon­

ference.HewantstoratifytheobscurePro­

tocolsofNagoya­KualaLumpur,aunbio­

diversityagreement.Heplansto rebuild

tieswithVenezuela,buthasmadexeno­

phobiccommentsaboutVenezuelanwom­

en.Hehaswackyideasaboutdrugs,in­

cludingsupplyingfreecocainetoaddicts

asa public­healthmeasure.

Turnsfortheworse

Sources:WorldBank;OHCHR *To April 30th

60

55

50

45

40

35

201510052000951990

Incomeinequality,Ginicoefficient

00=maximuminequality

UnitedStates

Mexico

Colombia

Brazil

Argentina

200

150

100

50

0

22*2120191817162015

Colombia,murdersofcommunity

leadersandhuman-rightsactivists

Cases

Notconcluded

Concluded

Petrofied

Colombia, voting intention in presidential election

May 2022, %

Source:Invamer

Sergio Fajardo

Rodolfo Hernández

Federico Gutiérrez

Gustavo Petro

6050403020100

First round

FedericoGutiérrez

GustavoPetro

6050403020100

Second-round scenarios

Rodolfo Hernández

Gustavo Petro