The Economist May 28th 2022 43
Middle East & Africa
Eritrea
Issaias’s army
I
n the cornerof a quiet bar in Asmara,
Eritrea’s capital, Mulugeta (not his real
name) hatches a plan to escape. He has
made contact with the peoplesmugglers
who say they will arrange the crossing to
Sudan. His older siblings in America have
paid the fee. From Sudan, he will travel to
Libya—and then to Europe. But his voice is
hushed: in Eritrea a young man needs per
mission from the army to move freely. Mu
lugeta fears being conscripted and sent to
fight in Ethiopia. He does not want to die in
another country’s civil war.
Four years ago, young Eritreans caught
a glimpse of a more hopeful future. Abiy
Ahmed, Ethiopia’s new prime minister,
came to Asmara and embraced Issaias Af
werki, Eritrea’s dictator. The two signed a
peace deal ending one of Africa’s longest
running conflicts, a bloody border war that
had cost some 80,000 lives. It was fought
most intensely about two decades ago for
control of a few barren hillsides along the
border with Ethiopia’s Tigray region.
By late 2020 Eritrea was back at war.
This time, however, it is as an ally of the
Ethiopian government in its ferocious
campaign against the Tigrayan People’s
Liberation Front (tplf), the partycummi
litia which runs Tigray. Once again Eritre
an conscripts were ordered into Tigray,
where they murdered, raped and ran
sacked towns on such a scale that Asmara’s
streets nowadays thrum to the sound of
stolen Ethiopian lorries.
Abiy, who at first denied that Eritrean
troops were in Ethiopia, in March 2021 at
last promised to have them withdrawn. Yet
for more than a year his words proved hol
low. Even after the Ethiopian army was
routed from most of Tigray in June last
year, large numbers of Eritrean troops re
mained. Last year they helped enforce a
blockade of most food shipments to Tigray,
which has pushed almost 1m people to the
brink of starvation. Now change is afoot. In
March Ethiopia agreed to a fragile truce
with the tplf, raising hopes of an enduring
peace in Tigray. More recently, Eritrean
troops have pulled back towards the border
(see map on next page).
The course of Ethiopia’s civil war now
depends to a great extent on when, and
how, Eritrean troops leave Ethiopia. Issaias
has nursed a grudge against the tplfsince
he fought alongside it to topple Ethiopia’s
Marxist military dictatorship, which they
did in 1991. Two years later Eritrea seceded
from Ethiopia’s federation. Yet because Is
saias has long believed that the tplfis bent
on invading Eritrea and overthrowing
him—a charge his government recently re
peated—he is unlikely to withdraw his
troops voluntarily without having first
smashed the tplf.
Nor is he likely to negotiate. “We have
consistently offered to engage Eritrea on
how to deescalate,” says a Western official
involved in mediation between Abiy and
the tplf. “They have not demonstrated a
willingness to.” Some diplomats now wor
ry that the tplfmight indeed risk attack
ing northwards to Asmara if Issaias contin
ues to refuse to join talks.
A SMARA
Why the path to peace in Ethiopia runs through the gulag state next door
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