Flight International - January 19, 2016

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ightglobal.com 19-25 January 2016 | Flight International | 5

W

hile their colleagues in the commercial sector

face the challenge of ensuring that production

rates can keep pace with record-breaking demand, the

folks at Boeing Defense & Space must be wishing for a

similar set of problems.

Instead, the military unit has a worse headache: how

to ensure the survival of its remaining activities. After a

manufacturing run for the US Air Force and a host of

international customers, its final C-17 transport left

Long Beach, California late last year, marking an end to

more than 70 years of activity at the historic site.

Teamed with Lockheed Martin, Boeing had expected

to secure the USAF’s long-range strike bomber deal late

last year. Now it must hope the Government Account-

ability Office can find fault with Northrop Grumman’s

selection if it is to benefit from the $80 billion project.

But worse things could happen. Failure to win more

orders for its aged F-15 and younger F/A-18E/F Super

Hornet would make it harder for Boeing to pursue

“sixth-generation” fighter opportunities with the USAF

and US Navy, where it lags behind F-35 manufacturer

Lockheed. And defeat in the USAF’s lucrative T-X train-

er competition could see it exit that market altogether.

Not buying a Boeing tanker was a step too far for the

US Department of Defense – but to sustain its other mili-

tary segments the company will have to unveil winning

designs if it is to continue its 100-year heritage in style. ■

See News Analysis P

Under pressure

T

here are jitters on the Chinese stock market and

worries about many emerging economies, but John

Leahy has a view on the orders bubble: there simply

isn’t one. At the Airbus annual press conference in

Paris on 12 January, the airframer’s top salesman again

dismissed suggestions that the industry is ramping up

output just when unprecedented demand is about to

topple over the precipice.

Assuming the appetite for air travel slackens, Leahy

contends, Toulouse is sitting on a backlog of almost

6,800 and simply needs to go on taking one order for

every aircraft it builds to maintain its production plans

into the next decade – in 2015 that ratio was 1.6.

However, even if the ever-upbeat sales supremo is

right about the strength of the marketplace, Airbus –

and its rival Boeing – could yet come unstuck at the

other end of the equation. To meet their ambitious

ramp-up plans, both airframers depend not only on a

growing world economy, but on global supply chains

delivering highly-engineered components and sub-

systems to increasingly just-in-time schedules.

Airbus’s experience with the A350 last year proves

just how vulnerable the airframers are to a weak link in

that chain. The new widebody was certificated almost

exactly when Toulouse promised it would be – a re-

markable achievement considering the shambles of the

A380 programme less than a decade earlier. But the

first year of production proved trickier. Leahy’s boss

Fabrice Brégier was unusually candid in naming and

shaming interiors provider Zodiac at the press

conference, pinning the blame on the French company

for Airbus falling one short of its target of 15 A350 de-

liveries last year. He accused Zodiac management of

being “in denial” about the supply problems and said

Airbus had deselected the company from its A330neo

programme.

Harsh words indeed, and doubtless enough to spark

a culture change at Airbus’s hapless supplier. And,

while missing an annual delivery target by one aircraft

hardly amounts to a crisis, Brégier promised a new

“watchtower” approach to any impending slippages.

Suppliers the world over – particularly on the A320neo

and Boeing 737 Max, which face the steepest ramp-ups

• may now well be looking at their processes ahead of
  what will an extremely challenging period.
  Too much demand might be a nicer problem than
  too little. But for the airframers and their supply
  chains, making good their promises over the next five
  to 10 years could prove no less stressful. ■

Too much demand is better

than too little, but for suppliers

could prove no less stressful

UIG/REX/Shutterstock

See Air Transport P7, News Focus P

We’ll be keeping an eye on you

Could supplier glitches prove a bigger headache for aircraft manufacturers than the worry of

demand falling away as they prepare to accelerate production towards the end of the decade?

Chain reaction

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