Flight International - January 13, 2015

THIS WEEK

flightglobal.com 13-19 January 2015 | Flight International | 11

M

arket analysts are predict-
ing that the value of the
small unmanned air vehicle mar-
ket will surpass $8.4 billion by
2019, with commercial use of the
technology to dominate business.
In a 5 January report, ABI
Research claims that revenues for
the commercial use of small
unmanned air systems (SUAS)
will be in excess of $5.1 billion by
2019, representing a compound
annual growth rate of some 51%
from 2014.
By the end of its study period,
the commercial market is expect-
ed to be 2.3 times larger than the
military sector and five times
larger than the hobbyist market,
the company says.

The commercial sector is the

“sweet spot” for SUAS use, says

Dan Kara, practice director at ABI

Research, referring to a current

focus on this area of the market

by both defence contractors and

hobbyist manufacturers.

“Both groups of SUAS makers,

along with other classes of solu-

tion providers, are aggressively

targeting the commercial sector

through acquisitions, internal de-

velopment, partnerships and in-

vestment,” he says.

Industry applications for the

technology, along with data,

operator and modelling services

will be the main driver for SUAS

in this market, ABI believes, and

not necessarily just the un-

manned platforms themselves.

“Ongoing research advance-

ments, technological develop-

ments and dropping prices for in-

creasingly capable enabling

technologies have combined to

remove barriers to innovation and

commercialisation, spur the de-

velopment of new SUAS and in-

crease the ways they can be ap-

plied,” the company says.

ABI considers types with a

maximum take-off weight of less

than 11kg (25lb) to be SUAS, in-

cluding fixed-wing and single-/

multi-rotor vertical take-off and

landing platforms. Designs in-

tended for professional and per-

sonal use were considered in its

study, but others, such as systems

costing less than $350, plus

“functionally limited” and low-

tech models produced for the toy

industry were excluded. ■

FAA to mandate

SMS for all airlines

AIR TRANSPORT P

For more coverage of the

unmanned air sector visit

flightglobal.com/UAV

T

he US Customs and Border
Protection (CBP) agency no
longer plans to acquire 14 more
medium altitude unmanned air
vehicles, and faces stinging new
criticism about the effectiveness of
its current fleet of 10 such aircraft.
Comprised of unarmed land
and maritime surveillance ver-
sions of the General Atomics
Aeronautical Systems Predator
B, the agency’s fleet is so restrict-
ed by budget, operational and
weather constraints that the
aircraft have completed only
22% of planned flight hours, a
report by the Office of Inspector
General (IG) says.
Moreover, an $8 million sensor

• the Northrop Grumman vehicle
  and dismount exploitation radar
  (VADER) – is not being used prop-
  erly, the report says. Although
  VADER has detected thousands of
  suspected illegal immigrants after
  they have crossed the US border,
  it is not being used by the CBP for
  the strategic purpose of tracing
  their routes back to where they
  entered the country.
  The IG has consequently rec-
  ommended that the CBP invest

$443 million on something more

useful than expanding its UAV

fleet to 24 aircraft.

“CBP has invested significant

funds in a programme that has

not achieved the expected re-

sults, and it cannot demonstrate

how much the programme has

improved border security,” the

report says.

It adds that the agency has stat-

ed it no longer intends to expand

the Predator B fleet, although an

approved requirement for the ad-

ditional aircraft still exits.

The IG report also catalogues a

list of details about the CBP’s

UAV operations along the south-

ern land and maritime borders of

the USA. Although the CBP esti-

mates it costs only about $2,

per flight hour to operate the

Predator B, the IG report says the

actual cost is nearly six times

higher after factoring in salaries

for pilots and maintainers, depre-

ciation and the cost of maintain-

ing the VADER sensor.

The agency’s Predator B fleet

also faces weather-related restric-

tions, as the type cannot be oper-

ated in storms or where there is

cloud cover, the report says.

The CBP partly justified the ex-

pense of standing up the Predator

B fleet – estimated by the IG at

$360 million – by promising cost

savings, as the aircraft could be

used to respond to ground motion

alerts along the border instead of

other aircraft or patrol officers.

However, the IG found only six

instances where a UAV had been

used to respond to a ground

motion alert. ■

Industrial use will drive sales

Rapid rise predicted for commercial UAV market

UNMANNED SYSTEMS BETH STEVENSON LONDON

UNMANNED SYSTEMS STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

CBP Predator B fleet takes heavy flak

US border agency comes under intense criticism over failings in use of unmanned aircraft to monitor illegal immigration

Rex Features

The medium-altitude surveillance aircraft were found to have completed 22% of planned flight hours

Rex Features