Flight International - January 13, 2015

24 | Flight International | 13-19 January 2015 flightglobal.com

COVER STORY

THE FACT that no aircraft system

alarms triggered before a 2013 LAM

Mozambique Embraer 190 crash

has led Namibian investigators to

conclude that the captain deliber-

ately disengaged multiple systems

before the aircraft crashed. The air-

craft had been cruising at 38,000ft

when cockpit voice recordings picked

up the sound of the altitude pre-se-

lect being dialled to 4,288ft, then to

1,888ft and again to 592ft. Shortly

afterwards the autothrottle was dis-

engaged and one of the air condition-

ing packs deactivated. Neither event

generated a caution alarm, and the

Namibian transport ministry, in an

interim statement, says this indi-

cates the actions were intentional.

Similarly, the aircraft’s mode was

subsequently switched from ‘altitude

hold’ to ‘flight-level change’ without

any evidence of a failure of the flight

management system. “Therefore it is

possible to infer that these transi-

tions were manually commanded,”

the inquiry states. The captain had

been alone as the first officer had left

for the lavatory. Flight data recorder

information shows that the jet de-

parted from its assigned altitude and

began a rapid straight-line descent

that lasted for 6min 42s before

Namibian radar lost contact. The rate

of descent reached a maximum

10,560ft/min and a nose-down pitch

of 10 ̊, triggering several overspeed

warnings. The aircraft crashed in

Bwabwata National Park. None of the

six crew members or 27 passengers

survived. Investigators are yet to

draw any official conclusions from

the recorded information, but there is

little in the interim statement to coun-

ter early suspicions that the flight

was sabotaged by the captain. No

distress call was made, although the

crew had been in radio contact with

Gaborone controllers before the sud-

den descent at the EXEDU waypoint.

The Namibian inquiry states that “no

mechanical faults were detected”,

and the first officer left the cockpit

minutes before the 29 November

2013 crash. “Repeated banging” on

the cockpit door is suspected to have

been the copilot’s attempt to gain

access to the flightdeck.

■ Italian investigators have conclud-

ed that a Wind Jet Airbus A319 that

landed well short of Palermo’s run-

way on 24 September 2010 did so

after deciding to continue a non-preci-

sion approach at night in poor weath-

er, despite failing to sight the runway

at the minimum descent altitude

(MDA). Italian investigation authority

ANSV has determined that the pilots

demonstrated a “poor attitude” to-

wards crew resource management

and failed to maintain a sterile cock-

pit during the descent, or to carry out

proper approach briefings. The air-

craft landed 367m (1,200ft) short of

the runway 07 threshold and skidded

for 850m, suffering such extensive

damage that the twinjet was written

off. The ANSV says there was “delib-

erate disregard” for procedures at

the point of reaching the MDA, when

the crew should confirm the runway

as being in sight – and execute a

go-around if it is not. However, as the

aircraft crossed the minimum alti-

tude of 710ft, the captain urged the

first officer, who was flying, to con-

tinue the approach despite being

year – 2012 – there were only 21 fatal acci-

dents, but 425 fatalities. The logic of choosing

the “best” year as the one with the lowest

number of fatal accidents rather than deaths is

that the fatalities total depends mostly on the

size of the aircraft that crashes. So 2014’s total

of 671 fatalities results from the fact that three

of the accidents involved big jets, and one a

large turboprop. If evidence emerges that

MH370 was not an accident and its figures

were removed from the accident tables, the

2014 numbers would fall to 18 fatal accidents

and 432 fatalities.

The statistical risk to each individual pas-

senger is affected more by the number of pas-

sengers that died than the number of fatal acci-

dents. As a result 2014 took a backward step in

this respect, as three big jets suffered fatal acci-

dents with the subsequent loss of everyone on

board. The Ascend 2014 figures show that

SOURCE: Flightglobal

Fatalities

WORLD AIRLINE FATAL ACCIDENTS AND FATALITIES 2005-2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Fatal accidents

10-year average fatal accidents = 27 10-year average fatalities = 670

34

1,050

863

749 817

514

425

281

(^744583671)
27
25
34
28
26
32
21
26
19
INVESTIGATIONS
ACCIDENT REPORTS PUBLISHED IN LAST SIX MONTHS OF 2014
publishes figures in its global airline safe-
ty review which also include relatively rare –
but still existing – accidents to commercial
airline flights operated with piston-engined
aircraft. As a result, although the figures are
similar and tell the same broad story, the
numbers differ slightly. Flight International’s
2014 figures, like those of Ascend, do not in-
clude MH17 on the grounds that it was a war
loss, but assume until evidence suggests oth-
erwise that MH370 was an accident.
INTERPRETATION
According to the Flight International terms of
reference, there were 19 fatal accidents – the
lowest ever figure – and 671 fatalities in 2014
(see graph). This compares with 2013, in
which the respective figures were 26 fatal ac-
cidents and 281 fatalities – the number of
deaths an all-time low. In the previous best
❯❯
❯❯
The downing of Malaysia Airlines
flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine
in July is considered a war risk
loss rather than an accident