Flight Int'l - January 26, 2016 UK

AIR TRANSPORT

flightglobal.com 26 January-1 February 2016 | Flight International | 13

Transaero jets to

enter Aeroflot fleet

Air TrAnsporT p 14

A

irbus and Boeing saw dra-
matic declines in their book-
to-bill ratios last year as their
combined result fell below the
industry’s long-term average.
Analysts expect this trend to
continue in the near term but do
not see it as an indicator that de-
mand for new aircraft is softening.
Between them, Airbus and
Boeing boosted output in 2015 by
3% to almost 1,400 aircraft. But
their order intake declined more
than a third from the all-time
commercial jet record of 2,
net orders in 2014, to 1,804 last
year. While this is still a respecta-
ble tally, it is the first time that
combined net orders has dropped
below the 2,000-mark since 2010.
The consequence of the rising
production and declining sales
is a combined book-to-bill ratio
of 1.3, below the long-term aver-
age of 1.6.

Airbus’s higher order tally and

lower production (1,036 net or-

ders and 635 deliveries) gives it

an order/delivery ratio of 1.6.

Boeing’s deliveries outstripped

its rival by almost 130 aircraft

(762 shipments). It matched its

output with new sales, securing

768 net orders in 2015. And after

four consecutive years of

double-digit growth, the com-

bined jet backlog rose by just

over 3% in 2015.

strong backlog

Rob Morris, head of consultancy

at Flightglobal’s Ascend analysts,

says that while book-to-bill can

be a strong indicator of the de-

mand cycle, he thinks other fac-

tors are currently at play.

“Right now, we look to be head-

ed below the long-term book-to-

bill average,” he says. “But let’s be

clear, this is not a sign of weaken-

ing demand at present. The back-

log can’t grow forever.

“This time around, it’s

probably a manifestation of the

strong backlog, coupled with the

fact that manufacturers have no

slots to sell for many years in the

future. Therefore we expect the

book-to-bill to be below the long-

term average at least in 2016,

SOURCE: Flightglobal analysis of delivery data from Fleets Analyzer database

Industry long-term average Airbus Boeing

AIRBUS/BOEING BOOK-TO-BILL TREND - 2000-

0.

0.

1.

1.

2.

2.

3.

3.

4.

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

I

AG will make an engine
selection for the Airbus
A320neos it has on order in the
coming few weeks.
The British Airways, Aer
Lingus, Iberia and Vueling parent
opted for the re-engined narrow-
bodies in 2013 as part of a deal
for up to 220 A320s.
It has gradually been firming
options and Airbus’s backlog data
shows that, at the end of 2015,
the carriers had a combined 102
A320neo-family jets on order.
IAG chief executive Willie
Walsh confirmed, at the Airline
Economics Global Frontiers

Walsh says decision imminent on A320neo engine

propulsion Murdo MorrIson dublin

Aer Lingus A320-family fleet is powered by CFM56B engines

conference in Dublin 18 January,

that the company would decide

“by the end of the quarter”

between the CFM International

Leap-1A and the Pratt & Whitney

PW1100G.

British Airways’ current-gener-

ation A320s are powered by

I nternational Aero Engines

V2500s, while Aer Lingus and

Iberia jets are equipped with

CFM56Bs, and Vueling uses both

engine models.

IAG’s original deal with Airbus

comprised 30 A320s and 32

A320neos, plus 58 A320 options,

intended for Vueling, plus a sup-

plementary options package of

100 A320neos to be deployed

across all IAG member carriers.

BA currently has firm commit-

ments for 35 A320neo-family jets.

Iberia has orders for another 20

and Vueling has 47. None has yet

been allocated to Aer Lingus. ■

AirTeam

images

analysis MAx KIngsLey-Jones london

book-to-bill fall is no cause for alarm

despite output rising significantly above order intake at big two airframers, demand is still strong, according to analysts

“We are headed

below the book-to-bill

average, but this

is not a sign of

weakening demand”

rob Morris
Head of consultancy, Ascend

and potentially for a couple

more years.”

In addition, there is no evi-

dence that falling oil prices are

deterring carriers from ordering

new fuel-efficient aircraft, and

there is little prospect of that

changing even if prices stay low,

argues Peter Morris, chief econo-

mist at Ascend.

Delivering an upbeat outlook

for the global airline industry,

Peter Morris told the Airline

Economics Growth Frontiers

conference in Dublin on 18 Janu-

ary that carriers had enjoyed a

“double windfall” of a falling fuel

price and “the benefit of new

toys” – a slew of more-efficient

narrowbody and widebody types

coming onto the market.

The year-on-year falls in order

totals seen in 2015 were the

result of “the first movers” having

placed big orders earlier in the

programmes rather than an

indication of falling demand,

says Morris.

“There is no strong evidence

of major cancellations on the

new stuff or people saying I’ll

run the old stuff forever,” he

says, noting that the commercial

backlog remains at a record high.

“I don’t anticipate [that chang-

ing],” he adds. ■

Additional reporting by Murdo

Morrison in dublin