Flight International - November 10, 2015

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ightglobal.com 10-16 November 2015 | Flight International | 17

Atlas seeks time to

build strength

DEFENCE P

F

or Airbus, there has been
much to celebrate over this
year, with the majority of its civil
programmes racking up sales or
making significant development
progress. However, the A380 con-
tinues to buck the trend.
The airframer has yet to secure
any sales for the double-deck
type this year and, during a 30
October third-quarter results
briefing, Airbus Group chief fi-
nancial officer Harald Wilhelm
faced questions on the possibility
of a production rate cut this year.
Wilhelm declines to be drawn
on a potential output adjustment,
but points out Airbus is expect-
ing to achieve production break-
even on the type this year. The
A380 backlog is “good enough”
to maintain break-even in 2016 –
even at an output of fewer than
30 aircraft, he says. Airbus also is
aiming to be “as close to break-
even as possible” for the year
after, with an estimated overall
production of 20-30 jets for 2017.
Wilhelm declines to discuss
2018 forecasts, stating that there
is “enough time” to book deliver-
ies for this date. He says the back-
log is “very good, in terms of visi-
bility, for the years to come”.
But while he insists that
Airbus will not build ‘white-tail’
jets – aircraft with no confirmed
customer – he will not be drawn
on whether the airframer is con-
sidering a rate cut, given the
dearth of recent orders.
Wilhelm will not disclose an
output threshold for A380 break-
even, although he notes that the
company has brought this level
down from 35 to 30 and is able to
take it down further. He says the
“priority” is to “work on cam-
paigns”, adding: “Let’s see what
that’s going to yield.”
Airbus’s backlog for the A
has been pressured not only by
the lack of new orders, but also
by uncertainty over deliveries to
a number of customers, including
Virgin Atlantic and recently-col-
lapsed Russian carrier Transaero,
which had respective commit-

PROGRAMME OLIVIER BONNASSIES & DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Orders required as A380 loses lift

Airbus declines to talk about potential rate cuts for the double-decker as customer problems cast doubt on backlog

ments for six and four aircraft. In

addition, in its order data Airbus

lists 10 aircraft formerly assigned

to Hong Kong Airlines as now

being for an undisclosed client.

The airframer has expressed

confidence in the programme,

and hinted earlier this year that it

could secure a new customer for

the type by the end of 2015.

IN STORAGE

The complexity of the problem is

further illustrated by the fact that

the first two of an intended six

A380s built for Skymark Airlines

are still sitting in storage at Tou-

louse, awaiting their fate. Both

aircraft – MSNs 162 and 167 – are

still in their green primer, save for

blue-painted tails.

Wilhelm has previously hinted

that the airframer had a realloca-

tion plan for the aircraft, but

ruled out a 2015 delivery to an

alternative customer.

All Nippon Airlines, which

now owns a 16.5% share in the

resurrected Skymark, has already

dismissed the possibility of tak-

ing over the order.

In the absence of any definitive

information, a number of differ-

ent scenarios have been suggest-

ed as possible fates for the two

superjumbos.

At the ISTAT Europe event in

early October, one leasing source

Airbus

A pair of A380s previously destined for Japan’s Skymark remain stuck on the tarmac in Toulouse

“I’m not sure I can

see any sense in

these aircraft [for

Skymark] being

parted out”

ROB MORRIS

Head of consultancy, Ascend

suggested the aircraft could even

be parted out, but Flightglobal’s

Ascend consultancy offers the

more optimistic view that both

units are likely to fly again.

“I’m not sure I can see any

sense in these aircraft being part-

ed out since there will be major

structural components that

would have limited value to

Airbus even in the manufactur-

ing process,” says Ascend’s head

of consultancy Rob Morris.

“Surely the most cost-efficient so-

lution would be to offer these air-

craft at attractive pricing to a po-

tential customer, in some attempt

to minimise the loss to Airbus.”

The manufacturer will contin-

ue to face fresh challenges in re-

viving sales as used aircraft also

begin to hit the market. In

October, Malaysia Airlines chief

executive Christoph Mueller said

the carrier plans to dispose of its

fleet of six A380s in 2017-2018,

as it takes delivery of four

A350-900s as replacements.

There are also remarketing chal-

lenges with the type. The first

A380 coming out of Singapore

Airlines service could leave in

two years’ time. The Oneworld

carrier, which took the very first

A380 in October 2007, has its

fleet of the double-deck aircraft

on 10-year leases, with an option

to extend to 12 years. It has yet to

decide on an extension.

The A380 with the earliest

lease expiry is managed by

German investment fund Dr

Peters Group.

LEASE EXPIRIES

Three other units have lease expi-

ries in January, April and June

2018, Flightglobal’s Fleets Ana-

lyzer database shows. Another

SIA A380, managed by Doric, has

a lease running until March 2018.

The fate of the stored A380s

built for Skymark, meanwhile,

could be decided over the next

few weeks. One source says

Dubai-based Emirates could end

up taking the two aircraft.

Morris says the move would

make sense if the airframes could

be sequenced into the production

schedule for Emirates, and ques-

tions whether the aircraft could

replace two unallocated slots.

But what Airbus really needs

is more orders. ■