COMMENT
ightglobal.com 10-16 November 2015 | Flight International | 7
See Air Transport PT
his month is likely to be remembered for two iconic
moments in Asia’s aviation history: the roll-out of
the Comac C919 and the first flight of the Mitsubishi
Regional Jet (MRJ).
It is important to qualify this statement with “likely”,
because the MRJ was supposed to get airborne years
ago. This slipped to late October, and then, thanks to a
last minute change to the rudder pedals, November.
In China and Japan these aircraft are sources of im-
mense national pride. Thousands trekked out to
Comac’s sprawling production facility at Shanghai’s
Pudong International airport for the C919’s unveiling.
Yet neither jet is set to dominate its segment. For ex-
ample, when the C919 enters operation, tentativelyaround 2018, the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max
will already be in service. Beyond mainland Chinese
airlines that have no choice but to operate the C919,
international carriers will remain dubious about the
aircraft, which will struggle for overseas sales.
Mitsubishi has gained an impressive 223 orders
since the MRJ’s launch in 2010. But Embraer’s re-
engined E2 series has already surpassed that figure in
the two years since its 2013 launch.
However, to underestimate either aircraft would be a
mistake. Although aerospace’s centre of gravity will
r emain firmly in the West for decades to come, a none-
too-subtle shift is already taking place. ■Rising sons
See This Week PAirbus
Just another 4,299 to goS
uch is the popularity of the next-generation of
narrowbodies from Airbus – and to a currently
lesser extent, Boeing – that production rates are being
lifted to unprecedented levels.
Airbus had already promised to raise A320 output to
50 per month from 2017, across four production lines.
But now, based on a backlog of more than 4,300 of its
re-engined Neos, it will hike the rate even further – to
an eye-popping 60 aircraft each month from 2019.
Boeing, with a firm backlog of 2,869 orders for its
737 Max – not to mention 1,337 for the current NG
family – is in a similar position. It plans to increase
production at its Renton, Washington assembly line to
52 per month from 2018.
The European airframer says it has stress-tested its
orderbook and is confident that rate-60 – and possibly
higher in the future – is a sustainable increase.But not everyone shares the sense of optimism
emanating from Toulouse. Even for a moment assum-
ing that the world economy does not experience a hic-
cup, let alone a repeat of the calamitous events of 2008,
there are doubts that the latest rate hike is required.
Based on current forecasts, analysts have pointed to
a potential oversupply of 200 aircraft by 2019, and that
is without factoring in the effects of a potential match-
ing output increase from Seattle.
If there was a global economic slowdown, then how
many more ‘white tails’ would the airframers end up
churning out?An equal, if not larger, worry for the aerospace
industry will be the ability of the supply chain to cope
with soaring production volumes.
The large tier one suppliers are likely to have the
fi nancial resources to invest in the raw materials,
manpower, facilities and equipment required.
But you do not have to travel far down the supply
chain to see that does not hold true for every company.
And those smaller businesses churn out vital compo-
nents for every engine or fuselage assembly.
Equally, size is no guarantee of success, as Zodiac
Aerospace’s well-documented travails in the cabin
segment illustrate.
It does not take too much in the way of mental
gymnastics to project the effects of a similar bottleneck
on future narrowbody production.
Nonetheless, Airbus remains confident in both its
customer base and suppliers.
Should it have read the runes incorrectly, however,
this will be a costly mistake for its big money-maker. ■If there was a global economic
slowdown then how many more
‘white tails’ would be built?
From 2019, the big two airframers will be churning out a total of 112 single-aisle aircraft each
month. Airbus believes rate-60 is sustainable, but headwinds could yet blow it off courseGrowing pains
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