The Washington Post - USA (2022-05-28)

SATURDAY, MAY 28 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A

war in ukraine

BY JOHN HUDSON

The Biden administration is
preparing to send advanced long-
range rocket systems to Ukraine
as the country suffers losses in
the east from advancing Russian
forces, said U.S. administration
officials and congressional staff-
ers.
The move, which could be
announced as early as next week,
involves the provision of the Mul-
tiple Launch Rocket System, or
MLRS, a U.S. weapon capable of
firing a torrent of rockets many
miles farther than current Ukrai-
nian capabilities.
The rocket system has been a
top request from Ukrainian offi-
cials who say it is necessary to
curb the advance of Russian forc-
es, which claimed full control of
the strategic eastern city of Ly-
man on Friday, handing Moscow
another victory in its offensive in
Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
CNN first reported on U.S. prepa-
rations to send the system.

The transfer is subject to a

final decision by the White

House.

The Kremlin has warned that

any country providing advanced

weaponry to Ukraine will face

harsh repercussions. On Friday,

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei

Lavrov said the West has “de-

clared total war” against Russia.

The Biden administration is

attempting to help Kyiv defend

itself without provoking Russian

retaliation on U.S. forces or allies.

In a closed-door briefing on Capi-

tol Hill this week, State Depart-

ment officials said that some

White House officials had con-

cerns that providing the MLRS

with a range of more than 180

miles could result in Ukrainians

forces firing rockets into Russian

territory and causing a major

escalation, according to people

familiar with the briefing, who,

like others, spoke on the condi-

tion of anonymity to discuss mili-

tary matters.

The State Department officials

in the meeting said such con-

cerns would probably be ad-

dressed with the Ukrainian lead-

ership. A senior U.S. official said

the White House is comfortable

with providing the MLRS system

to Ukraine but will seek to man-

age the escalation risk by with-

holding the longest range rockets

compatible with the system.

Typical rockets fired by these

systems have a range of about 43

miles, according to Army data.

Specialized rockets called Army

Tactical Missile Systems can

strike much farther at distances

up to 186 miles. Those missiles

were used during the Gulf War

and the 2003 Iraq War and are

used to pulverize critical infra-

structure, such as air defense

sites and forward bases.

Even the shorter-range rockets

would more than double the

reach of Ukrainian firepower.

Kyiv’s forces are using U.S.-deliv-

ered M777 howitzers, which have

a range of about 18 miles. Other

sophisticated weapons the Unit-

ed States has sent include thou-

sands of Stinger and Javelin

shoulder-fired missiles.

Despite the flood of U.S. and

Western arms to Ukraine, Mos-

cow maintains an advantage in

firepower, which Ukrainian offi-

cials say is causing them to lose

ground in Donbas.

The White House came under

criticism from some Republicans

on Friday for not moving faster

with the delivery of the rocket

system, including Sen. Lindsey O.

Graham (R-S.C.). “The Biden ad-

ministration has been dragging

their feet,” he tweeted.

Pentagon spokesman John

Kirby said the Biden administra-

tion was not slow-rolling the

request.

“I would take issue with the

idea that there’s a holdup here,”

he told reporters on Friday.

He said the United States was

moving weapons systems into

Ukraine “every single day ... help-

ing them literally in the fight,

including howitzers, which are

still arriving.”

When asked to confirm the

impending transfer of long-range

rocket systems, Kirby said “I’m

not going to get ahead of deci-

sions that have not been an-

nounced.”

Ukrainian officials have been

increasingly public in their de-

mands for weapons amid Rus-

sian advances in the east. “If you

really care for Ukraine, weapons,

weapons and weapons again,”

said Ukrainian Foreign Minister

Dmytro Kuleba on Thursday.

“My least favorite phrase is ‘We

are working on it’; I hate it. I

want to hear either ‘We got it’ or

‘It’s not going to happen,’ ” he

said.

In the easternmost province of

Luhansk, Russia controls more

than 95 percent of the territory,

according to the Institute for the

Study of War, a Washington-

based think tank. Severodonetsk

— one of the last big cities under

Ukrainian control in eastern Lu-

hansk — is under major assault,

with forces almost encircling the

city. Russian troops are steadily

approaching from the northeast,

where they already control sev-

eral areas.

In Izyum, a city close to Don-

bas region, Russian troops were

advancing east — possibly to

merge operations with those in

the captured city of Lyman, po-

tentially encircling a large mass

of Ukrainian forces in what

would be a major battlefield de-

feat. Russian artillery and tanks

were observed in nearby cities.

Around the city of Donetsk, the

Russians so far were unsuccess-

ful, the think tank said.

Secretary of State Antony

Blinken spoke with Kuleba, his

Ukrainian counterpart, on Fri-

day. Following the call, Kuleba

tweeted “Heavy weapons on top

of our agenda, and more are

coming our way.”

Alex Horton, Maria Paul, Claire

Parker and Karoun Demirjian

contributed to this report.

U.S. prepares to send long-range rocket systems to Kyiv

air routes.

“What happens? What do you

think happens? The price goes up

and up and up,” she said.

Where possible, Russian man-

ufacturers have tried to make up

shortfalls by turning to Turkey

and markets in Asia. But pan-

demic-related supply chain dis-

ruptions have hampered those

efforts.

In addition, many Russian as-

sembly lines were designed using

European or other Western tech-

nologies or materials in mind.

“The assembly lines are some-

times dependent on French con-

veyor belts or bearings from the

United States and Germany,” Na-

talia said. “That’s not as easy to

change as you think.”

Moreover, she said, essential

parts for even run-of-the-mill

businesses, including furniture

and coffin makers, have also

been affected because their for-

eign suppliers are reluctant or

unwilling to provide export dec-

larations certifying that those

parts would not be used for

military purposes.

In the best cases, that means

delays; what used to ship in two

weeks now takes six weeks, she

said. But some parts, such as

industrial fan propellers and

rubber seals used by Russian

furniture makers as well as Rus-

sian defense industries — were

being indefinitely held up.

“Production won’t stop for

shoes, clothing, sausages, those

kinds of things, but we will go

back to what Russia was like in

the ’60s, ’70s, ’80s, where the

quality is worse and the price is

higher, when you can actually get

the product,” she said.

“I remember how, if you want-

ed a kitchen, you would have to

go to the shop and get a number

and stay in a queue,” she contin-

ued. “But not for hours or days.

You’d sometimes wait half a year

for a kitchen. I’m afraid those

days are coming back.”

problem, though, is booze.

Russian distributors estimat-

ed that the United States export-

ed about 7 million liters of whis-

ky, rum, gin and bourbon to

Russia each year. To make up the

shortfall, they are turning to

smaller, lesser-known brands.

“Even if all other cities in

Russia are suffering and barely

have bread to eat tomorrow,

there will still be money in

Moscow,” said a cocktail bar own-

er in Moscow, who spoke on the

condition of anonymity because

he was not authorized by his

investors to discuss business

matters. “Plus, people seem to

have grown used to the situation.

... My main problem right now is

[the lack of] American alcohol.”

Where goods are still avail-

able, they are often more expen-

sive — which is helping fuel

inflation at higher rates than in

the West — or of poorer quality.

“Look, I’ll be honest, if we

need to sew a high-quality gar-

ment, we normally would go and

buy a nice Italian fabric,” said the

owner of a textile factory in the

Moscow region, who spoke on

the condition of anonymity out of

fear of government reprisals. The

company, she said, was still

working with existing inventory

of high-end fabric but was now

weighing whether to switch to

making cheaper clothing, or just

shut down after stocks run out.

“The quality of what’s available

in Russia is just not on par,” she

said.

Natalia, the owner of a Mos-

cow logistics firm who declined

to give her last name because she

fears the government, described

how sanctions were spurring

price hikes. The ban on E.U.

trucks entering Russia or Belarus

means that goods traveling by

land must now be offloaded at

the border, then onloaded to new

trucks that can travel into and

across Russia. Meanwhile, flight

bans had shut down a legion of

said a senior Biden administra-

tion official, who spoke on the

condition of anonymity to dis-

cuss internal assessments.

Before the invasion, most of

Russia’s commercial fleet was

leased from foreign companies:

planes that Moscow seized in the

aftermath of sanctions. Most of

the planes had been registered in

Bermuda and Ireland, where lo-

cal inspectors certified their air-

worthiness. European aviation

authorities have expressed alarm

that Russian airlines have limit-

ed engineering and technical

support to maintain the planes

and that Russian inspectors lack

necessary expertise.

Some Russians are particular-

ly concerned that Rosaviatsiya,

Russia’s aviation regulator, has

loosened rules on who can con-

duct aircraft maintenance now

that Western companies are no

longer able or willing to do it.

The task will fall to local firms,

whose capacity and training have

been questioned by critics. Rus-

sia is beginning to issue its own

certificates of airworthiness for

planes, which had been largely

determined by foreign inspec-

tors.

“Russia’s safety record was not

stellar before, maybe at the level

of Indonesia,” said aviation ana-

lyst Volodymyr Bilotkach. “But

now, flying a Russian carrier is

turning into a game of Russian

roulette.”

Shortages of alcohol and

fabric

In Moscow, business remains

brisk at restaurants that feared

just months ago that sanctions

would force them to close. It is a

sign, at least in the capital, that

money from oil exports, and

government steps to lower inter-

est rates and raise wages and

pensions have blunted the im-

pact. Several establishments

have sought to adapt by sticking

to locally sourced foods. A bigger

acquire advanced technology are

being hit the hardest. “Automo-

biles, tanks, hygiene products,

even print paper. This is where

you need microchips, but also

specialized chemicals and other

imports that Russia is having

problems getting,” said Anders

Aslund, an economist who has

long studied Russia.

In the aviation sector, even

Russian-manufactured planes

rely on critical Western-made

components. Several Russian air-

lines operating Russia’s Sukhoi

Superjet 100s have informed the

government that they can no

longer ensure proper mainte-

nance of its French-Russian

SaM146 engine. If a solution is

not found quickly, the airlines

have warned, most of their Rus-

sian-made fleets could be

grounded by fall, the Russian

business daily publication RBC

reported.

Even the most optimistic ana-

lysts say it could take at least a

couple of years for Russia to

develop assembly lines for com-

mercial planes made almost ex-

clusively with local components.

Other analysts project it could

take far longer, if it happens at

all.

“We don’t think on the com-

mercial front it is particularly

viable for them to, in the near or

medium term, maintain or start

the manufacture of competitive

domestic civil aviation aircraft,”

tion.

But that shift never really

worked. Russia found some suc-

cess in food production, reducing

reliance on imports and satisfy-

ing more of its domestic demand.

But a 2021 report from the Rus-

sian Central Bank found that 65

percent of domestic companies

still required imports for manu-

facturing.

Sanctions have now shut the

door on a wide range of those

crucial inputs. Though many

have not been explicitly banned,

their availability has vanished as

foreign companies avoid the

taint of doing business in Russia.

For Russians, the prospect of

diminished consumer choice and

poorer quality harks back to a

tragicomic era famously lam-

pooned in a 1980s Wendy’s com-

mercial that depicted a Soviet

fashion show in which Russian

“daywear,” “evening wear” and

“swimwear” were all the same

dull gray smock.

“Especially for anything more

sophisticated, they will have to

rely on what they can produce,

and they will use designs or

templates that are maybe 10 or

20 years old,” said Tomas Malm-

lof, a senior scientist at the

Swedish Defense Research Agen-

cy. “The technological gap [with

the West] will become larger, and

they will not be able to breach it.”

Those industries requiring mi-

crochips and other difficult-to-

About 80 percent of Russia’s
commercial fleet consists of
f oreign-made planes, predomi-
nantly from Airbus and Boeing,
both of which have stopped do-
ing business with Moscow.
Ural Airlines, which has over
50 Airbus planes, has projected
that it can safely fly them for only
a few months before it will need
to start “cannibalizing” from oth-
er aircraft — permanently
grounding some planes to strip
them for parts. The low-cost
airline Pobeda, part of the state-
run Aeroflot group, has already
reduced its fleet from 41 to 25
planes, using its grounded air-
craft for “cannibalized” parts.
The decision by Ericsson and
Nokia to freeze business with
Russia, meantime, has left cellu-
lar providers there suddenly
scouring the world for used tow-
ers and parts to maintain and
expand a network that had more
or less kept pace with the United
States and Europe. Even China’s
Huawei appears reluctant to fill
the gap, indefinitely delaying a
Russian rollout of next-genera-
tion 5G technology, a service that
providers had been testing be-
fore the Ukraine invasion.
“Within five years, there will
be a huge gap between Russia
and in the rest of the world” on
cellular service, said Grigory Ba-
kunov, an expert on Russian
technology.
Following the recent exit of
French automaker Renault, Rus-
sia is moving to restart produc-
tion of the Moskvich — a Soviet-
era make that went bankrupt two
decades ago after failing to
achieve foreign quality stan-
dards. Its resurrection, potential-
ly with Chinese assistance, could
either jump-start the production
of domestic alternatives or see a
new generation of clunkers clog-
ging Russian roads.
Supply disruptions, however,
have hit not only assembly lines
that rely on advanced technology
but also those using imported
materials. Sanctions “on the Rus-
sian Federation have practically
broken all the logistics in our
country,” Russian Transport Min-
ister Vitaly Savelyev, conceded to
journalists last weekend during a
visit to Russia’s Astrakhan re-
gion.

Under the hood

The ruble has rebounded since
its initial swoon after sanctions
were imposed in the winter, and
Russian government coffers are
flush from a bonanza of oil
revenue. European countries
have taken halting steps toward
their pledge to curb reliance on
Russia’s oil and gas, by far its
largest exports, even as Moscow
boosts sales to Asia.
JPMorgan this month project-
ed that the recession triggered by
sanctions would be less sharp, if
more drawn out, than had been
predicted earlier. Some eco-
nomic indicators, including elec-
tricity consumption, point to bet-
ter-than-expected business activ-
ity.
But look under the Russian
hood and a grimmer picture
comes into focus.
Russia was never a standard-
bearer for globalization. In a
globalization ranking published
last year by the KOF Swiss Eco-
nomic Institute, Russia ranks
51st — behind Mauritius, Jordan
and Ukraine. Following an initial
wave of Western sanctions in
2014, after Moscow annexed
Ukraine’s Crimea region, Russia
turned inward, seeking to rely
even more on domestic produc-

RUSSIA FROM A

As sanctions bite in Russia, shortages raise specter of Soviet-era quality of life

YURI KOCHETKOV/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK

A vacant storefront in Moscow this month. Despite Russia’s recent turn inward, seeking to rely more on domestic production, a 2021 report from the Russian Central Bank

found that 65 percent of domestic companies still required imports for manufacturing.

“Production won’t stop for shoes, clothing,

sausages, those kinds of things, but we will go back

to what Russia was like in the ’60s, ’70s, ’80s,

where the quality is worse and the price is higher,

when you can actually get the product.”

Natalia, the owner of a Moscow logistics firm