20 TIME June 6/June 13, 2022
energy demand from those with rising
incomes in low- and middle-income
countries that will drive global electric-
ity demand. It’s another argument for
investment at scale in the global south
alongside urgent eff orts to curb emis-
sions in the global north.
Air-conditioning needs to be
hyper effi cient, pollutant-free, aff ord-
able, and well maintained. But just
building better AC is not suffi cient; it
has to fi nd its place in new strategies
to build resilience to heat—that is,
city design, building design, new low-
carbon materials that
keep buildings cooler
in hot weather and
warmer in cold. It
means district cool-
ing and the planned
greening of cities,
where the social eq-
uity of a tree planted
in an urban, concrete
neighborhood should
be valued higher
than another tree in
a leafy suburb. But
one of our best re-
turns on investment
would be to reduce
the heat we generate
cooling things down.
The U.S. Department
of Energy estimated that some 20%
to 50% of industrial energy input is
wasted as heat. That profl igacy seems
unconscionable in the midst of an en-
ergy crisis as the West pivots away
from Russian energy.
The wet-bulb number—the mix of
heat and humidity above which the
body cannot cool—should become
our key indicator, as important as the
weather report and coupled with a clear
warning to limit time spent exposed
to the heat, to raise awareness, and to
change behavior.
Without solutions, the global dis-
parity will grow between those who
can fi nd a way to stay cool, protect their
food supply, and benefi t from vac-
cine cold chains and those who can’t.
Extreme heat is literally on the front
burner.Kyte is dean of the Fletcher School at
Tufts UniversityIN THE INDUS VALLEY STRETCHING FROM
India to Pakistan, temperatures hit up to
50°C (122°F) in early May. Together with
high humidity, this heat pushes people to
the edges of survival, especially those who
must be outside or cannot get somewhere
cool. We saw the same thing last year: dangerous heat and
humidity under the heat dome above the U.S. Pacifi c North-
west. Elsewhere, high heat and strong
hot winds are fanning wildfi res from New
Mexico to Siberia.
The World Meteorological Organiza-
tion now all too regularly releases statis-
tical fi rsts that seem to move inexorably
up the thermometer. Beyond the head-
line numbers are the less well understood
economic impacts of extreme heat; they
range from lower productivity of work-
ers, compromised infrastructure, reduced
crop yields, and worsened health out-
comes to impacts on tourism and leisure
economies.
The truth is that in most countries, the
wealthy can aff ord to stay cool. They live
in areas with more shade; they have ac-
cess to reliable energy or a generator for
backup. Extreme heat compounds dilem-
mas for those with low incomes. Risk in-
creases depending on where you live and the kind of work
you have. With the U.N. estimating that over 1.1 billion peo-
ple are at high risk from extreme heat—most of them in na-
tions and communities with little or no access to aff ordable
and reliable electricity—the need for scale is immense.
As people strive for prosperity, they will choose an air
conditioner for comfort when they can aff ord one. Too often
today, that purchasing decision means that these people are,
perversely, architects of their own vulnerability, because
the AC units available at low price points in many low- and
middle- income countries are dangerous for their commu-
nities and for global health. They are energy-ineffi cient,
driving up energy demand, and they pollute, often using su-
perpolluting hydrofl uorocarbons as refrigerants, further ac-
celerating climate impacts.
IN THE EFFORT to keep everyone cool in a hotter world, the
air conditioner will, as currently deployed, only make the cli-
mate hotter. By 2050, the International Energy Agency ex-
pects the number of ACs in the world to quadruple. AC alone
could account for half a degree of warming. In a world where
we are on track for 3.2°C of warming, above the 1.5°C net-
zero target, that is signifi cant. Most households in hot coun-
tries today have not yet bought their fi rst AC. It will be rising
△
The homeless
deal with a
dust storm and
extreme heat
in Allahabad,
India, on May 13As the world heats up, we
face a cooling dilemma
By Rachel Kyte
THE VIEW WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
SANJAY KANOJIA—AFP/GETTY IMAGES