The Sunday Times May 29, 2022 17
will continue to flow into Ukraine for the
foreseeable future.
SHIFTING MOMENTUM
Unless Putin declares some significant
measure of national mobilisation, Rus-
sia’s standing peacetime army of
280,000 is already at full stretch, is dip-
ping into its older equipment stocks, and
scouring the world for weapons compo-
nents as its arms factories suffer the
effects of international sanctions. On
present trends, Russian forces will be
outgunned and outnumbered by the
autumn. And any new cohorts of Russian
conscripts to increase numbers will not
appear on the battlefield until they have
done two months of basic training and
five to six months of specialist training.
If the Ukrainians can prevent Putin
achieving a quick win of some sort —
likely followed by a peace offer and pres-
sure on the Europeans to lean on Kyiv to
accept it — if they can somehow dilute
Russia’s current success and keep going
into the autumn, then they seem to feel
the war can tip in their favour. Kyiv talks
assertively about winning back the terri-
tory that has been occupied since Febru-
ary, and perhaps even some of that seized
in 2014. From that position of strength,
says Kyiv, it is prepared to negotiate with
the Kremlin on any number of issues.
Such hopes depend on the ability of
Ukrainian forces to conduct a series of
strategic offensives, perhaps sometime in
the autumn. But successful defensive
operations — however counter-attacking
and dynamic — do not naturally evolve into
major offensive strategies without a great
deal of reorganisation and restructuring.
ATTACK HARDER THAN DEFENCE
To go on to a strategic offensive, Ukrain-
ian forces would have to build up their
western-supplied artillery in order to
counter, and effectively outrange, their
enemy’s artillery on which Russian forces
place so much emphasis when they fight.
In particular, the Ukrainians need far
more western multiple-launch rocket sys-
tems (MLRS) with ranges of some 180
miles. The MLRS is the “go-forward” artil-
lery technology of modern ground offen-
sives. They would have to restructure
their fighting formations and give greater
priority to armoured units. They would
need to use the dispersal and flexibility of
their current infantry formations to avoid
Russian missile strikes on any troop con-
centrations, but then have enough pro-
tected mobility to mass overwhelming
force quickly and decisively at key break-
through points, punching forward in
combined arms operations (which,
unlike the Russians, Ukrainian forces
have shown themselves capable of, albeit
WRESTLE FOR THE EAST
Luhansk50 milesDonetskUKRAINE
ROMANIA
Russian-controlled Ukrainian territoryMariupolDonetskRUSSIA
SeverodonetskLymanKramatorskSlovyanskPopasnaBlack SeaMOLDOVA
Russian-controlled
Ukrainian territory
before Feb 24Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Projecton smaller, defensive operations). They
would need to maintain their robust com-
mand and control system, switching the
prevailing military command mindset
from “national defence” to “strategic
offence” and “liberation”.
Above all, as Russian forces have discov-
ered to their cost, offensive ground opera-
tions are extraordinarily difficult without
air superiority. Ukrainian ground-based
air defence systems, and its surviving air
force, have done extremely well in deny-
ing effective air superiority to the Rus-
sians. But denying airspace control to an
enemy, and establishing it for oneself, are
two different tasks. The Ukrainians would
need many more missiles and aircraft —
not to mention pilots — if they are to estab-
lish air superiority in the south and east of
their own country when so many Russian
air bases and mobile missiles lie close over
the border. For the time being, air superi-
ority requirements might be the Achilles’
heel of Ukrainian ambitions to recover the
territory they have lost in the Donbas.
For the Ukrainians, the short-term
objective must be to hold on to some signif-
icant part of the Donbas against the current
Russian offensive. They have a good
chance, again, of fighting the Russians to a
standstill. But after that, Kyiv’s options
begin to look strategically ambiguous. If
they could easily throw the Russians out of
their country they surely would, and be
cheered by the western powers for doing
so. But offensive action is not so straightfor-
ward. And Putin might eventually mobilise
enough forces to guarantee a stalemate
while he holds on to whichever territories
he occupies by then. The pressure would
be on Kyiv — certainly from some European
powers — to settle and appease the aggres-
sion — yet again, just one more time.Michael Clarke is former director general
of the Royal United Services InstituteClockwise from
top left,
residents fleeing
Irpin cross a
destroyed
bridge; a civilian
building in Kyiv
hit by bombs;
The Moskva,
flagship of
Russia’s Black
Sea fleet, sinks;
bodies line the
streets of
Buchan; a
Ukrainian soldier
on duty in OdesaI do not know what will
happen tomorrow. I find this
lack of certainty about the
future almost unbearable. I
know that the future of my
family — and all Ukrainians —
depends on international
leaders. But I understand that
those on whom the outcome
of the war hinges may not be
as interested in Ukraine’s
victory as I am. They may not
see a way to return occupied
territories to Ukraine and
protect our independence
while also ensuring their own
safety and prosperity.
My biggest fear is losing my
optimism. Every day for three
months — almost every hour
— I have been scanning my
Ukrainian news feed. I read
CNN and Reuters as well, but
a lot less often. I need news
that gives me strength and
hope — you don’t get that
from international headlines.
But increasingly there is
another reality that even my
positive feed cannot hide.
Almost a quarter of
Ukrainian news is devoted to
details of military assistance
from our allies. I have been
reading every day that this or
that country has handed over
modern weapons — or,
usually, that they are about to
do so. Too often we are still
waiting. We were promised
old Soviet fighter planes but
they have not arrived. The
Swiss block the export of
artillery shells. Israel stops us
from buying Spike missiles
because it is afraid of Russia
taking revenge in Syria.
Budapest won’t allow military
aid to come through Hungary.
The German government has
sent us nothing at all.
If, by the time you read
this, the Luhansk region has
been completely captured by
Russia, along with the city of
Severodonetsk, this will
mean Germany has helped
Vladimir Putin to take that
territory. The same could
soon happen to the last
Ukrainian-controlled parts of
the Donetsk region.
My publisher, Alexander
Krasovitsky, lives in Kharkiv,
and every day he hears
Russian missiles and shells
exploding around his city. He
also reads the news feed and
gets increasingly angry.
“Until European weapons
are brought here, they will
continue to bomb us every
day,” he said. “Getting the
right supplies through
Hungary could have enabled
us to push the Russian
artillery away from Kharkiv.”
Krasovitsky’s house is still
intact, but a few days ago a
Russian rocket exploded only
200 metres away.
In Europe and the United
States, there are increasing
calls for Ukraine to accept the
new loss of territories and to
sit down at the negotiatingWe’ll know when the
world betrays us — you
will tell Kyiv to negotiate
table with Putin. At first, the
voices were those of
unknown “experts”. Now we
hear former politicians such
as Henry Kissinger, once the
US secretary of state, and
Silvio Berlusconi, the former
prime minister of Italy, giving
the same message. When
similar words fly out of the
mouths of European heads of
state, it will be safe to say that
pragmatic calculation has
won the day and that the
civilised democratic world
has betrayed Ukraine.
“These statements by
Kissinger and Berlusconi are
interconnected,” said
Stanislav Varenko, a
Ukrainian businessman.
“They are part of the plan of
the pro-Russian lobby in the
US and Europe. European
politicians are secretly pro-
Russian because they are
afraid of changes in the world
order in the event of
Ukraine’s victory over the
Russian Federation.”
The Ukrainian historian
and journalist Danylo
Yanevsky says that Russia is
making “an obvious attempt
to break the unity of the
collective West in relation to
Ukraine”. Which side is
winning? The West is already
divided into two coalitions.
One is completely on the side
of Ukraine: America, Canada,
Britain, Poland, Lithuania.
The other, he said — France,
Germany, Italy, Hungary,
Cyprus — is fighting to help
Putin save face.
Gennady Chizhikov, the
president of the Ukrainian
Chamber of Commerce, said:
“Some European politicians
are chained to Russia by
sentimental and corrupt ties.
They will delay, as long as
possible, any decision that is
harmful to Russia.
“Others are afraid of the
Russian Federation because
of its size. They are still
convinced that it is invincible
and that it is better not to
provoke Putin. If Ukraine
were afraid of the size of the
Russian Federation, it would
already be occupied.”
I tried hard to find a person
in Ukraine who would
approve of a deal with Putin
for the sake of an end to the
war. But I failed. Nina
Yanchuk, a retired lady who
lives with her husband, Tolik,
next door to our summer
house in the rural Zhytomyr
region, was typically defiant
when I asked her if it
wouldn’t be better to come to
some agreement with Putin.
“No, there can be no
negotiations with Putin —
only war to the bitter end.
How can you talk about
anything with him after
such atrocities? What’s
more, he’s a cheat. How
many times has he
deceived everyone?”
The voices of these
Ukrainians are in stark
contrast to those of
Kissinger or Berlusconi.
In the Kherson
region, in the south,
Russian passports
are being
distributed to
residents.From occupied Crimea,
reinforcements are arriving
to bolster the Russian army
for a further offensive against
Odesa and Mykolaiv. New
Russian tactical battalions are
forming on the Ukrainian
border near the northern
region of Chernihiv, which
may indicate preparations for
a new campaign against Kyiv.
All this is happening
because the Ukrainian army
does not have enough
weapons, and this gives the
Russian army time and
opportunity to prepare for
new attacks. There will be
further destroyed cities and
villages; there will be new
victims among the military
and the civilian population.
Reading the Ukrainian
news feed during the night, I
noticed for the first time a
more cautious tone and
admission of bad news. The
“official blogger” of President
Volodymyr Zelensky’s office,
Oleksiy Arestovych, who for
three months has been telling
Ukrainians several times a
day how good everything is at
the front and how we will
defeat the Russian army with
the weapons that the allies
give us, has lost his optimism.
Now he says that a month of
heavy fighting awaits us, with
possible new loss of territory.
Of course, he goes on to
assure us that later, when our
allies supply us with
weapons, we will recapture
all the territory, and even get
back Crimea. But, knowing
that the Nato countries have
agreed not to anger Putin or
to send aircraft and tanks to
Ukraine, I cannot be sure that
his promises will come true.
Some countries, such as
Greece, have managed to
provide symbolic help — they
sent a plane of Kalashnikov
assault rifles and a plane of
portable missile systems. At
the same time, a study
showed that 62 per cent of
Greeks are against the supply
of arms to Ukraine.
I think Greek politicians
will very soon also start
saying that Ukraine needs to
stop resisting and accept
further annexation of its
lands as something that
cannot be avoided.
In Ukraine, however,
studies show that more than
80 per cent of people are
determined not to accept the
loss of territory, and are in no
way prepared for a peace
treaty on Putin’s terms.
So I do not know what will
happen tomorrow. But I still
believe we will win, even
without the help we need.
Near Kharkiv, by my
publisher’s house, the
Ukrainians could have found
a use for German armoured
vehicles, Swiss shells and
Israeli rockets. Instead, they
were using old Soviet guns
long past their use-by date.
They pushed the Russians
back anyway.Andrey Kurkov is the
author of Death and the
Penguin. His most recent
novel is Grey
Bees (Quercus)
published in 2018I need
news
that
gives me
hope
80%
Proportion of
Ukrainians who
will not accept
loss of territory62%
Proportion of
Greeks who do
not want to send
arms to UkraineANDREY
KURKOV
REY
KOV
President
Volodymyr
Zelensky’s office
has lost its
optimismheart speculation, excessive
profits and a break in global
production chains because of
Covid and the war in
Ukraine,” Mélenchon said.
The monthly minimum
wage would be raised to
€1,500 (£1,275) after tax, up
from €1,303, and the pension
age cut to 60 from 62. The
party also wants to bring back
the wealth tax, which Macron
controversially abolished.
The plan has provoked
scorn from mainstream
economists. “The Mélenchon
programme is a form of
Sovietisation,” claimed
Olivier Babeau, head of
Sapiens, the think tank.
@Peter_Conradiratings, as he showed when
he came within just over one
point of Le Pen. Much also
depends on turnout, typically
much lower than in
presidential elections.
With rising prices a
growing preoccupation for
French voters, he is putting
his faith in a package of
economic policies he dubbed
a “legal Robin Hood
operation” last week.
Most radical is a price cap
on basic goods and rent
controls to combat inflation,
which at 4.8 per cent, is the
highest in France since the
1980s (though lower than
British or German levels).
“For us, inflation has at its“I am not proposing an
insurrection. He [Macron]
will remain president,”
Mélenchon told L’Express
magazine last week. “But
since I will be the one most
recently elected it will be my
programme that will be
implemented.”
He may not get the chance.
The same poll suggests right-
wing voters will swing behind
the president’s party,
renamed Renaissance, in the
second round run-off, giving
Macron a majority — and
dashing his rival’s hopes of
waging a power struggle
against the president.
But Mélenchon has a habit
of outperforming his pollWill fixed rents and food price caps
make France’s ‘Robin Hood’ its PM?
He has cast himself as a
French Robin Hood who
wants to soak the rich and
fight the cost-of-living crisis
with price controls on basic
foodstuffs, a hike in the
minimum wage and higher
salaries for civil servants.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 70,
the veteran leader of France’s
left, is hoping his radical
plans will bring victory in
next month’s parliamentary
election, obliging President
Macron to install him as
prime minister in what the
French call cohabitation.
The pugnacious former
Trotskyite was buoyed by anPeter Conradi Parisopinion poll last week by
Harris Interactive suggesting
his left-green alliance could
top the first round on June 12
with 28 per cent of the vote,
two points ahead of Macron’s
centrist bloc.
He has tried to fire up
supporters seeking revenge
after the presidential contest
last month in which he was
narrowly squeezed into third
place — leaving them to
choose between Macron and
Marine Le Pen, the far-right
leader, in the second round
run-off. He has dubbed the
upcoming parliamentary vote
a “third round” in which they
will have the chance to
“elect” him as prime minister.Truss, the Foreign Secretary,
calling for urgent action.
British officials have, the
sisters say, been working
behind the scenes to secure
release, possibly in exchange
for him renouncing his
Egyptian citizenship and
moving to the UK.
With his health
deteriorating, they say the
process is not moving fast
enough. “Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
wouldn’t have got away with
that amount of crimes and
blatant human rights
violations if it weren’t for the
support of other
governments like the British
government,” Mona said.
Sanaa added: “These two
countries are allies, and it’s
very strange that an ally of
Britain doesn’t allow one of
these basic rights, which is
consular access. You should
hold your allies to stronger
standards than that.”
@louiseelisabethuman rights violations of the
same scale or worse.”
That special relationship is
being tested by Abdel Fattah’s
case. Last year, while behind
bars, the software developer
and blogger was granted
British citizenship through
his mother, Laila Soueif, who
was born in the UK.
Yet Egypt, for all its links
with Britain, has blocked UK
diplomats from visiting Abdel
Fattah in prison. The state has
continued, his sisters said, to
abuse and mistreat him. For a
year and a half, he lived in a
freezing, windowless cell two
floors underground. He would
turn up at the 20-minute
monthly visits shaking. “They
would make him hear other
prisoners getting tortured or
electric Tasers being used,”
Mona said.
He had no books, or even a
pen and paper, to occupy
him. At times, he considered
suicide. “The thing that really
got to him, the thing that kind
of broke him, is not the
sunlight, it’s the books,” said
Sanaa, a filmmaker.
In April, he began a hunger
strike. Since then, in a small
victory for the family, he has
been moved to a less severe
prison, and allowed some
books. He has still not been
able to see his son Khalid, 10,
who worships his father, even
though he has been in prison
for much of his life.
In a letter last week to his
family, Abdel Fattah said he
would continue his hunger
strike until a consular visit
was permitted. Yet prison
officials, he said, were
claiming falsely that he was
being given three meals a day.
“They are liars, and they
can’t imagine that there are
people who are the opposite;
people who care for truth,”
he wrote.
More than 30 MPs and
peers have written to Liz