6 FlightCom Magazine
L
UCK ILY, the perceived
dead-cat-bounce of 2004/
turned out to be a slightly
healthier feline response,
and it re-affirmed to the
industry that people need
to fly, come hell or high
terrorism.
As the US recovered, so did we all, until
the financial crash of 2008. Things have
changed, nine years later, except in South
Africa. We ensured our own self-made
recession, in true African style, by insisting
the most corrupt call the shots.
As I write this, my employer is teetering
on its worst crisis ever. I’ve long held the
view that rock bottom has to be visited
before a change of trajectory occurs, but
now that we are well and truly over the edge
and heading into the abyss, it’s not a pretty
sight.
Be that as it may, the world is less than
interested in the politically dysfunctional
southern tip of Africa, and surges forward
in terms aviation expansion.
A recent CNN report confirms the latest
threat to the airline industry, and it’s not
some nutter with explosives in his jocks,
but us, the much spoken about and often
maligned pilot corps.
Boeing has updated its pilot requirement
forecast to 637,000 (up from 528,000 a year
ago). This is from now until 2036, which is
two years past my own retirement age of 65,
so I will directly contribute to the problem.
One of my colleagues has thoughtfully re-
arranged our seniority list by retirement
date, and between now and the end of 2021,SAA will lose 101, or 14% of its current
pilots to retirement.
Worldwide, to meet Boeing’s latest
prediction, it has been determined that 87
airline-ready commercial pilots need to be
produced daily – EVERY day – for the next
20 years. That’s about one every 15 minutes.
Impossible task.
The US is having a bout of airline good-
health, thus the rest of the world will surely
be bursting with aeronautical joie-de-vie, if
my opening expression holds true.
With the airline industry being a global
entity, everyone will be experiencing a surge
of retirements from 2021 onwards, mainly
due to the changes in retirement age that
happened around 2005. This conveniently
kicked the can down the road, and now itwill start biting the industry in the backside
with a vengeance.
Amazingly, the FAA has forecast that
42% of their entire pilot work force will
retire in just the five years between 2020
and 2025. Not only is that a massive figure,
it also represents a huge amount of skill,
knowledge and experience leaving the
i n d u s t r y.
This has significant consequences on
the training industry, as it’s not everyone’s
idea of fun to become a simulator instructor
after retirement. Thus, training capacity, in
the most critical period of pilot demand,
will also be reduced.
The holes of that much-worn out cheese
are neatly aligning themselves, in terms of
creating the world’s first-ever pilot crisis.Airline Ops
Mike GouGh
Victims of
Success
We have all heard the expression – when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches
a cold. The events of the infamous 9/11 were certainly more than a sneeze in terms of
the fall out for the airline industry – more like a bout of swine flu. This, as we can all
recall, dealt a sudden near-death blow to the global aviation community.
A large percentage
of airline Captains
will be retiring in the
next ten years.