Flight International — 22 August — 4 September 2017

32 | Flight International | 22 August-4 September 2017 flightglobal.com

OPERATIONS

At present airworthiness regulations in all

countries require at least one qualified pilot

to crew a commercial transport aircraft. The

aircraft commander has legal responsibility

for its safety and signs documents to that ef-

fect before every flight, and in airworthiness

terms he or she is an essential component of

the aircraft. The pilot’s ability to make deci-

sions and, when necessary, to manipulate the

aircraft and its systems, is an assumed part of

the total system from the time the aircraft’s

designers begin work on it.

Yves Morier, the principal adviser to the

flight standards director at the European

Aviation Safety Agency, points out that since a

pilot is an essential design component in a

commercial air transport aircraft, in the case of

a pilotless commercial aircraft every legal re-

sponsibility the pilot takes on, and every task

the pilot is expected to be able to perform,

has to be achieved by alternative means.

Yet Morier can see small pilotless commer-

cial transport aircraft – perhaps operated by

an Uber-type air taxi company – being certifi-

cated within about 10 years. He adds that

these will, in the early days, almost certainly

be limited in size, in what they can do under

what circumstances and in what kind of air-

space environment they can operate.

The unspoken implication is that certifica-

CERTIFICATION DAVID LEARMOUNT LONDON

Fast-moving AI technology ‘demands a new mindset from regulators’

will always be available is shown to be
an invalid assumption 10 years from now or
20 years from now, then we have to have a
different plan.”
Boeing is not the only company contem-
plating the possibility of passenger-carrying
aircraft with fewer or no flight crew within
20 years.
The research arm of Swiss bank UBS pub-
lished a report on 7 August that notes it would
be feasible to operate “remotely controlled air-
planes carrying passengers and cargo” by
about 2025, potentially saving the world’s air-
lines $26 billion a year in foregone pilot sala-
ries, reduced fuel bills and lower training
costs. Although the bank’s researchers elabo-
rate on the financial benefits of a shift to pilot-
less aircraft, they recognise that the industry is
unlikely to be ready within eight years to em-
ploy such technology. And, even if the indus-
try can overcome regulatory barriers, airlines
can expect to find that the population is most-
ly unwilling to fly in a pilotless aircraft.

SLOW TO CHANGE
Still, if it could be achieved, an automated
cockpit solves two of the industry’s most in-
tractable problems at the same time: a pilot
shortage and creeping labour costs.

The regulatory barriers, however, are sig-

nificant. For this reason, the industry sel-

dom transitions to the full employment of a

new technology in one great leap. There are

usually smaller steps. A common example

is the transition to carbon fibre-based struc-

tures instead of metal. The first applications

appeared in the 1970s on secondary struc-

tures, such as the rudder for the Airbus

A310. By the early 1990s, Boeing was ready

to replace metal with carbon fibre on the

empennage of the 777. More than 15 years

later, the 787 entered service with a carbon

fibre fuselage and wing – nearly 40 years

after the first application.

Some would argue the transition to an au-

tomated cockpit also started about 40 years

ago. That was when US and European regula-

tors accepted a two-person cockpit, which re-

moved a requirement for a navigator. Since

then, the industry has introduced new autopi-

lot features, including auto-land, which al-

lows the aircraft to navigate final approach

and landing by itself in certain situations at

qualified airports.

Sinnett offers a possible roadmap for a

step-by-step, incremental transition from the

crewed cockpit of today to a fully pilotless

aircraft. He notes that some airlines that op-

erate a 777 on a 16h mission require five pi-

lots on board: a captain, a first officer, a two-

person reserve crew and one pilot dedicated

to the cruise stage of the flight. By introduc-

ing more automated redundancy within the

cockpit, the five-pilot crew might be the first

thing to go.

“Some of the first steps might be to go from

five to four, and then from four to two to re-

duce the number of augmented crewmembers

on the flight. That may be the first step along

the way,” Sinnett says.

“Another step may be to go from two pilots

during cruise to one pilot during cruise and

[another] pilot on board the airplane, but

maybe getting meaningful rest. It could be

that you have a one-pilot operation.”

Single-pilot cockpits are banned for most

types of commercial operations today, but

there are exceptions. Sinnett notes that the

“You can imagine six steps to

autonomy – each of which

would be very, very difficult”

Mike Sinnett

Vice-president of product development, Boeing

Airbus envisions selling electric-powered “self-piloted” urban air taxis in as little as 10 years

Airbus

❯❯

tion for larger commercial aircraft is a rather more

distant prospect, but experience gained from the

bottom of the air transport market about the reli-

ability of the enabling artificial intelligence (AI)

systems controlling these vehicles in the aviation

environment will advance the application of AI in

more sophisticated large transport aircraft. And,

because the essential characteristic of AI is the

ability of the computer to learn and apply its

learning, the systems may develop credible capa-

bility at rates the world is not accustomed to.

Morier says developers talk of flying pilotless