Flight International - 22 May 2018

ightglobal.com 22-28 May 2018 | Flight International | 15

Remanufacturing

programme will keep

Dutch fleet on target

Defence P

COMAC

ImagineChina/REX/Shutterstock

A pair of C919 prototypes are

now in certification testing

dealing with its own steep learn-
ing curve, Comac has seen that
process mirrored at inexperi-
enced local suppliers.
Today, Comac says it has
strung together a domestic and
international aerospace supply
chain comprising over 200 com-
panies, 36 universities and a
combined workforce of millions.
It is also proud of the growth it
has brought to Shanghai’s com-
mercial aerospace sector, quot-
ing statistics that show total out-
put value grew over six-fold to
CNY7.96 billion ($1.28 billion)
in the 2007-2015 period.
Richard Aboulafia, vice-presi-
dent of analysis at Teal Group,

says the main differences be-

tween Comac’s first 10 years and

those of Airbus and Boeing are

the modest goals and freedom to

choose the best technology avail-

able to the West’s big two.

The high levels of government

control at Comac, coupled with

demands for replicating all parts

of the supply chain domestically

with no intellectual property

protection for vendors, also

hints at trouble ahead, he adds.

Corrine Png, chief executive

of transport equity research firm

Crucial Perspective, offers a

more positive outlook, however.

She believes Comac’s acquisi-

tion of technology and know-

how from world-class OEMs via

joint ventures is a “clever strate-

gy”. Without foreign help, it

would have taken far, far longer

to develop the necessary exper-

tise, she says.

Forecast International’s defence

and aerospace companies analyst

Richard Pettibone points to the

public perception of a “made in

China” label in the West as Co-

mac’s biggest weakness.

“Even with FAA certification,

it is unlikely that any major

[Western] carrier would opt for

Chinese aircraft due to public

perception of inferior quality.

Further complicating matters

would be the lack of a global

support network.

“For at least the next 10 years,

Comac’s aircraft are going to be

limited to service in China and

its satellite states,” he says.

Analysts agree that with the

world’s largest jetliner market in

its backyard, and the immense

government support insulating it

from financial pressures, Comac

has the ingredients necessary for

success.

STRONG BACKLOG

Indeed, despite being nowhere

near certification, the airframer

already holds commitments for

815 C919s from 28 customers.

There are also orders for 453 AR-

J21s, although it is unclear how

many of these will actually be de-

livered.

Still, Comac wants to be inter-

nationally recognised. It has

made a point of being present at

major air shows such as Paris and

Farnborough, where it displays

models of its aircraft at large and

strategically located stands. All

this will count for little, however,

if it is unable to gain Western cer-

tification for the C919, a necessity

to show China’s ability to build a

safe aircraft, and not merely by its

own standards.

Png estimates that Comac

could eventually account for

19% of the country’s owned air-

craft fleet. The C919 and later im-

proved variants will have no lack

of orders from Chinese airlines,

lessors and emerging markets,

with deals sweetened by favour-

able financing from Chinese fi-

nancial institutions and the

country’s export-import bank.

The key, however, is prevent-

ing production and delivery de-

lays, which would make its air-

craft less competitive.

Despite its potential, Comac

remains decades behind com-

petitors, and the country still has

a long road ahead to realise its

aerospace dreams.

The in-service performance

and reliability of its aircraft, and

the support the company pro-

vides, will be key indicators of

progress in the coming years.

That will ensure it wins over

airlines and passengers – both at

home and abroad – who remain

sceptical about the quality of

Chinese-built aircraft.

GRAND AMBITION

To its credit, Comac agrees:

“We’re like a 10-year-old child

who still needs to continue to

grow and improve. What we

need to do now is to be focused

and to put one foot in front of the

other, follow the developmental

rules of aircraft manufacturing,

insist on prioritising safety, be

open to co-operation, and build

products that pilots love to fly,

airlines love to buy and passen-

gers love to travel on.”

No small ambition, then; Co-

mac’s next decade will demon-

strate whether or not the compa-

ny has managed to achieve those

lofty goals. ■

ARJ21 regional jet programme, launched in 2002, was beset by delays

ImagineChina/REX/Shutterstock

“For at least the next

10 years, Comac’s

aircraft are going to

be limited to service

in China and its

satellite states”

Richard Pettibone
Aerospace analyst, Forecast International