arelyafortnightago,the political trends
emerging from the three heartland
states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh
and Chhattisgarh—scheduled for ass-
embly elections in December reflected
fierce anti-incumbency. Two pre-poll
surveys,conductedinMayandAugust
by CSDS (the Centre for Study of Developing Societies)
andC-Voterrespectively,hadpredictedacleansweepfor
the Congress party in all three states.
Butaselectionsgetcloserandthecampaignhotsup,the
tideseemstobeturning.Thesimpleone-wayanti-incum-
bencyagainsttheBJPnoticedinearlysurveyshasbegun
to appear messier. With the exception of Rajasthan, which
seemsbentonbringingdowntheVasundharaRaje-ledBJP
government,theINDIATODAY-AxisPoliticalStockEx-
change(PSE)pre-pollsurveyinSeptemberrecordedaslight
advantage for the Raman Singh-led BJP government inChhattisgarhandatightraceinMPwith higher popularity
ratings for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan led-BJP government.
Since the poll was conducted before the Mayawati (BSP)-Ajit
Jogi (JCC) alliance announced on September 20, the Chhat-
tisgarhpictureinwhatwillnowbeathree-cornered contest
remains di cult to predict.
TheCongress’soptimisminthestate stemmed from
the assumption that the BSP would tie up with it after
the alliance hammered out in Bengaluru following the
Karnatakapolls.Rememberthebonhomie between BSP
president Mayawati and former Congress president Sonia
Gandhi right after the political drama in the Garden City?
That’s hit a roadblock already in Chhattisgarh. At
a joint press conference on September 20 in Lucknow,
Mayawati announced a tie-up with the Jogi-led Janta
Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), with the latter as its chief
ministerial face. With 13 per cent scheduled caste and 31
percenttribalvotes,theBSP-JCCcombine will be a for-
midable one in the state. Indeed, in a triangular contest,
some observers believe, the alliance will be the kingmak-
er. Axis pollster Pradeep Gupta, who has travelled widely
inthestate,however,says“theRaman Singh-led BJP will
be the biggest gainer given its main voter base is among
the OBCs and tribals not aligned to the JCC”. There is
no confusion about the loser in all this—the Congress
with its traditional vote banks among the SCs. What has
further come as a bolt from the blue for the party is that
Mayawati, in a pre-emptive strike, has announced 22
candidates in MP too. If the Congress doesn’t wake up
even now and stitch up a pre-poll alliance, and if the BSP
announces candidates for all 230 seats in MP, the party
could lose out in that state too. A similar picture could
beginemerginginRajasthanwhichhas 17.2 per cent SC
votes, say some observers.
Since assembly polls are not presidential elections,
consider what the PSE reveals beyond who is winning.
Letuslookatthewhyandhow.
Are voters satisfied with the incumbent government’s
performance? In MP, while 41 per cent of voters are
satisfied, 40 per cent are so dissatisfied that they want it
replaced.Thehighlevelofvoterdissatisfaction, ironically,
contrasts with CM Chouhan’s popularity at 46 per cent,
compared to the Congress’s Jyotiraditya Scindia (32 per
cent) and Kamal Nath (8 per cent). The anti-incumbency
in MP is directed much more towards sitting MLAs, given
the massive corruption at the lower levels of government
and little work for constituency development. “It’s the fierce
anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs that prompted
party president Amit Shah’s decision to deny tickets to at
least100ofthe165partyMLAsatthe state election man-
agement committee meeting in Bhedaghat, near Jabalpur,”
admits a senior party leader who attended the meeting.
So, with such high dissatisfaction with the govern-
ment performance in MP, why are Congress leaders
unable to beat Chouhan’s popularity? Senior CongressB
IN POLL GEAR
Shivraj Singh Chouhan, PM Modi and Amit Shah at the
BJP’s Karyakarta Mahakumbh in Bhopal on September 25
PANKAJ TIWARIOCTOBER 8, 2018INDIA TODAY 33