OCTOBER 8, 2018 INDIA TODAY 41and 55 for the JCC, with Jogi as the chief ministerial
face—Mayawati said on September 20 she had “carefully
thought it out”. It probably meant she was going by the
old rationale that while the BSP’s vote was transferable,
the Congress’s wasn’t, which meant the Congress would
gain at her party’s expense. Within the BSP-JCC alliance,
a transfer of the SC vote is a real possibility as Jogi enjoys
the status of a demi god in the Satnami community—the
largest among SCs in the state.
The Satnamis hold sway in 14 assembly seats in
central Chhattisgarh, accounting for 20-35 per cent of the
votes. They are a crucial segment in another half a dozen
seats. En masse support from the community in these
seats, along with the votes of smaller communities, such
as Kachhi and boatmen, could ensure
victory for the BSP-JCC combine.
With the Congress poaching its
leaders, the JCC had been sufering
setbacks for some time. The alliance
with the BSP has come as a shot in
the arm for Jogi. He is likely to com-
mand greater negotiating power in
ticket distribution in central Chhat-
tisgarh and, perhaps, post-elections
in case of a hung assembly.
“Mayawatiji knows the Congress
is a sinking ship in Chhattisgarh. The
JCC alone can replace the BJP,” says
Amit Jogi, son of Ajit Jogi.
Left red-faced by the BSP’s deci-
sion to go with Jogi, the Congress is
now working out a plan to woo the
SCs. Party strategists maintain that
while Jogi may take his tally to 4-5 in
the 14 central Chhattisgarh seats that
have a sizeable number of SC voters,
it’s the BJP that will sufer the real
dent since it holds nine of the 10 SC
seats. “The vote share of the Congress
and the BJP together is about 82 per
cent. The alliance will have no impact;
it will be a direct contest between the
two parties,” claims leader of the Op-
position T.S. Singh Deo.
A more telling comment came from state Congress
president Bhupesh Baghel. “Pressure from the CBI and
ED on the BSP led to this alliance. The BSP had been
fielding candidates at the BJP’s behest. By support-
ing Jogi, who is the B team of the BJP, the party stands
exposed,” he said on September 20. Four days later, a CBI
court sent Baghel on a 14-day judicial remand in the case
of a CD containing morphed obscene images of a state
minister. The Congress now plans to target the BJP on
the issue with a ‘ jail bharo’ agitation.
For the BJP, uncertainty in the SC seats in central
Chhattisgarh means it must raise the stakes in the tribal
seats in the state’s north and south. While the going may
not be very easy in the north, where Singh Deo, hailing
from the erstwhile ruling family of Surguja, is a dominant
force, the BJP hopes to reverse the seat-holding pattern
in the south (Congress 8, BJP 4). A recent decision by
the Raman Singh government to distribute bonus to the
tendu leaf pluckers in the southern districts of Sukma,
Bijapur, Dantewada and Narayanpur in cash and not
through direct benefit transfer (DBT) is targeted at 1.3
million tribal families. The state’s north and south will see
a direct contest between the BJP and Congress.
The BJP may also try to split the SC vote—dicult but
not impossible. The Satnamis have various orders within
them, such as the Kabirpanthis. Their leader, Prakash
Muni Naam Sahib, is on good terms
with Singh, and BJP president Amit
Shah called on him in the first week
of September. “The BJP is working
on a plan to get 65 seats. The tie-up
is a setback to the Congress; we are
not afected,” said state BJP chief
Dharamlal Kaushik.
The party, though, may find itself
cornered on the issue of unemploy-
ment. The JCC has been going at it
hammer and tongs, and Jogi has even
promised an educational qualifica-
tion-based unemployment allowance
to the youth. To stir up Chhattisgarhi
pride, he has also announced jobs
solely for the people of the state. The
backward classes, especially the Kur-
mis, that have supported the BJP in
the past may now switch sides as they
see a ‘now-or-never moment’ for their
leader Baghel to become CM.
But with a 41 per cent approval
rating in the India Today Political
Stock Exchange, Singh remains by
far the most popular chief ministe-
rial candidate. Baghel is his closest
challenger (21 per cent). The CM’s
ambitious Sanchar Kranti Yo-
jana—smartphones with voice and data connections to
5.5 million people—may win him widespread support.
There are other freebies too, such as pressure cookers and
tin boxes in the tribal areas. A Rs 300 per quintal bonus
above the minimum support price (MSP) on paddy has
already been distributed among some 1.6 million farmers.
But all said and done, like in every BJP campaign,
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the party’s main
campaigner in Chhattisgarh, especially in the urban seats
of Raipur, Bilaspur, Durg and Raigarh where the party
made major gains in 2013. The party claims to expect an
increase in its vote share by 2-3 percentage points. That
sounds like a tall order. ■VOTE
%SEATS49
40
4
39*
BJP INC1
BSP41
2013 assembly elections
TOTAL SEATS: 90POLL POSITION
Independents and others
* including Amit Jogi, who won on a Congress
ticket in 2013 but has left the party15