12 AUGUST 2018 ÇPlane&Pilot
THE MYSTERY
On March 8, 2014, a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 that had
departed from Koala Lumpur was bound for Beijing, China,
when the captain got the radio handof from Malaysian air traf-
ic control to Vietnam’s Ho Chi Min Center. he captain of the
777 replied simply, “Good night. Malaysia hree Seven Zero.”
hose were the last words anyone ever heard from anyone
aboard the light. Soon after that inal radio call, Malaysia
370 changed course, turning from a northerly heading to the
southwest, continuing across the Malaysia peninsula and then
west, and then south, out over the vast, empty Indian Ocean,
where it rests today, based on analysis of satellite data. We
have found some wreckage, veriied pieces of the 777 that have
loated ashore on distant islands. But the location of the main
wreckage remains a mystery despite years of search eforts.
But why did Flight 370 go of track in the irst place? Some
argue that we won’t know the answer to that until we ind
the wreckage and the data recorders. Others believe that new
and existing evidence provide the answer.THE CONTROVERSY
Here are the two major theories (along with a couple of
crazy ones) as to why Flight 370 went missing that March
night in 2014:ZOMBIE PLANE
he Boeing 777 sufered a catastrophic mechanical failure
that depressurized the plane and killed everyone aboard while
sparing the plane’s autolight capability, which lew the plane
until it ran out of fuel thousands of miles later, whereupon
it crashed into the Indian Ocean. Proponents of this theory
believe that the plane depressurized somehow, perhaps while
one of the pilots had left the light cockpit momentarily. he
remaining pilot, compromised by oxygen deprivation, failed
to don an oxygen mask and passed out at the controls, but
only after he had turned the plane around.
his theory has numerous shortcomings, not the least
of which is that it requires multiple unlikely breakdowns of
systems, each at the most inopportune time possible, and for
them to happen in quick succession. And if the pilots were
incapacitated, how did the plane get turned around and then
continue to make course changes even after they would have
been dead for some time? Would one of them have entered
a light plan into the light management system to go far
away from help?
Unless one posits an impossibly unlikely chain of mechani-
cal mishaps, the course changes demand a live pilot makingthe changes up until long after the time that they both would
have been dead, or a soon-to-be-dead pilot intentionally pro-
gramming a malicious course into the computer. Furthermore,
several course details support the mass murder/suicide theory,
including the initial turn around with no radio call—the radios
are supported by multiple, redundant power sources, and the
pilots train regularly in systems failures. Investigators have
lately been zeroing in on the plane’s course when it crossed
the Malaysian peninsula. he plane lew directly over the
pilot’s home town before heading out toward open ocean.MASS MURDER/SUICIDE
he second theory—and this is the one I’ve subscribed to and
helped formulate—was that the disappearance and crash was
a deliberate act. Under this scenario, one of the pilots would
have depressurized the plane, disabling or killing everyone
aboard and then lying the plane until it ran out of fuel and
crash-landed in the Indian Ocean.
his theory satisies Occam’s razor about the simplest
theory most likely being the correct one. In this case, the
intentional act theory is by orders of magnitude a sim-
pler explanation.
A number of details support this theory, including the
apparently deliberate course. he truth is, airplanes some-
times do ly unattended on autopilot after the ight crew has
been incapacitated, almost always by oxygen deprivation.
But we know of no case in which the plane lying solely on
autopilot changed course. It is technically possible for a pilot
to program in an alternate course, and even on autopilot, the
plane will follow that course. his explanation only makes
it more likely and not less that the deviation from its light-
planned route was intentional.MYSTERIES OF FLIGHT
Malaysia 370?
What really happened to the Boeing
777 that changed course and
disappeared with 239 souls aboard?