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As with any proper scientific study, some
solid definitions were in order. ‘Zombie’, in
this case, referred to the classic brain-dead,
shuff ling corpse. Likes: brains, human
f lesh, other zombies. Dislikes: head wounds,
shotguns, f laming torches. These guys first
drooled into the zeitgeist courtesy of George
A. Romero’s 1968 film, Night of the Living
Dead, but their origins date back to the
Afro-Caribbean belief system known as
Vodou. Depending on which horror film
or Haitian myth you ascribe to, a zombie
might have different characteristics and
abilities. For the sake of consistency, the
CDMPS model assumed a few basic rules:
- A zombie bite is enough to infect a human.
- In a one-on-one encounter, a zombie
is likely to bite a human. - Zombies can only walk and run.
They can’t f ly planes or ride mopeds. - The humans will stay in their home
cities rather than f lee to the outback.
The Melbourne team let the model run, and
were surprised by the results: high-density
centres were actually better equipped to
fight a zombie outbreak than low-density
ones. “In Melbourne and Sydney, more
people get infected because of population
density,” Foliente says. “But the actual
rate of spread is slower, because people
can team up and help each other.”
In smaller towns like Darwin or Queenstown,
the rate of spread is also slow – there are simply
not that many people to eat. Interestingly, it’s
the medium-sized cities like Geelong, Perth
and Auckland that are at the greatest risk of
being overwhelmed: there are enough brains
to go around in these places, but too few to
organise and fight back efficiently. According
to Foliente’s model, zombies would engulf
these populations in a matter of days.The team knew that geographical factors
would also determine how the outbreak
would spread. However, as most ‘serious’
zombie studies had been conducted in North
America, research on how the undead would
behave in a sparsely populated island nation
like Australia was scant. The CDMPS crew
rolled out their maps and began crunching
the data. “The U.S. has a lot of smaller towns
connected to one another,” Foliente concluded,
“while in Australia we have more isolated
cities and towns, with great distances between
them. This slows the spread of infection,
where in the U.S. the virus just keeps going
and going.” The team also reasoned that as
Australia and New Zealand are islands, any
infection would probably arrive through an
airport. In the case of f lying zombies, Sydney
airport apparently has the best chance of
containing the outbreak, due to the large
surrounding population. If the zombies
land at Tullamarine in Melbourne, the
locals won’t stand a chance.These new findings raise some interesting
(and more than slightly uncomfortable)
Darwinian conundrums. Statistically,
humanity’s chances of surviving a zombie
attack increase if everyone stays and fights
together. Unfortunately, so do your own
personal chances of being dragged down
and eaten alive. “It’s a classic case of
community needs versus those of the
individual,” Foliente says. “From society’s
perspective, it’s better for everyone to fight
the zombies to the death. But that requires
a lot of people to sacrifice themselves.”All this is very interesting, but you might ask:
what’s the point? Apart from a hypothetical
plague of creepy chickens, why would scientists
waste time modelling something that will
never actually happen? The simple answerCITIES LIKE GEELONG, PERTH AND
AUCKLAND ARE AT GREATEST RISK:
THEY HAVE ENOUGH BRAINS TO GO
AROUND, BUT TOO FEW TO FIGHT
BACK EFFICIENTLY.is that it’s not the zombies that matter – it’s
the science. “I didn’t realise it would be such
a useful exercise,” Foliente admits. “But
by doing the simulation, we found that
medium-density cities are actually more at
risk, which is counterintuitive.” This gave
CDMPS valuable insight into how very real
catastrophes, like viral epidemics, might
play out. Zombie spatial modelling could
also help predict the spread of less obvious
pathogens, like ideas. “Clearly the dead
coming back to life is an unlikely scenario,”
Muntz wrote in his seminal paper back in- “But possible real-life applications
may include allegiance to political parties,
or diseases with a dormant infection.”
In the Pentagon’s case, using zombies
to model disasters was quite useful: the
undead are a good, non-specific enemy.
For obvious political reasons, you can’t have
an unclassified, highly detailed defence
strategy titled What to Do When Russia
Invades; that sort of thing leads to rather
pointed diplomatic questions. Meanwhile,
America’s Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention has even used zombies as a way
to engage citizens and prepare them for
natural disasters. There’s an entire section
of the CDC’s website dedicated to “Zombie
Preparedness”. For what it’s worth, the agency
recommends keeping an emergency kit in
your house, stocked with water (“one gallon
per person per day”), a utility knife, duct tape,
bleach, soap and towels, non-perishable food,
and medication. However, the authors note:
“If a zombie bites you, you’re a goner.”The only remaining mystery is why we’re
so fascinated by zombies in the first place.
Of all known apocalypses, zombie outbreak
is probably the most gruesome, and least
likely. Foliente says that’s one question
he can’t answer. “I have no idea,” he says.
“One day someone invented the concept of
zombies, and now they just won’t die.” •