The 2010 Strategic Defence and Security
Review (SDSR) assumed that the armed
forces would be able to mount an enduring
stabilisation operation at around brigade
level (up to 6,500 personnel) with maritime
and air support as required, while also
conducting one non-enduring complex
intervention (up to 2,000 personnel), and
one non-enduring simple intervention (up to
1,000 personnel). Or, for a limited duration,
and with sufficient warning, it would be
able to sustain a one-off intervention of
up to three brigades with air and maritime
support (about 30,000 personnel).
The 2015 SDSR changed the 2010
Defence Planning Assumptions. Now,
under the so-called Joint Force 2025 (JF25)
initiative, the UK military is expected to be
able to mount an expeditionary operation
with up to 50,000 personnel by 2025.
This could include a land division with three
brigades (30,000 to 40,000 personnel), a
maritime task group based around a Queen
Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier with ten
to 25 ships and 4,000-10,000 personnel,
and an air group that could include four
to nine fast jet squadrons, six to 20
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
(ISR) aircraft and five to 15 transport
aircraft, with 4,000-10,000 personnel.
Things are planned to improve from today’s
low baseline of eight fast jet squadrons –
two new Typhoon units are due to form to
operate the remaining Tranche 1 aircraft,
and No 12(B) Squadron will become a joint
RAF/Qatari Typhoon training unit. It would
seem likely that one or two further frontline
Lightning squadrons will eventually form,
though the aspiration to be able to deploy
nine fast jet squadrons simultaneously by
2025 would seem to be extremely ambitious.
At least the Ministry of Defence (MOD) has
moved from the precarious situation outlined
by the then-AOC-in-C of No 1 Group, AVM
Greg Bagwell, in 2010. Bagwell said that
the RAF would be “a six-squadron world;
that’s what’s on the books”, consisting
of five Typhoon squadrons and just one
expanded F-35 unit. This, Bagwell said,
would leave the RAF with a slightly bigger
combat element than the Belgian Air
Component (five fast jet squadrons), adding
that: “we are not a Belgium-minded country”.
Bagwell warned that the reductions that had
been publicly announced – taking the RAF from
12 fast jet squadrons to eight – would leave
the RAF only “just about” able to do its current
tasks, with no leeway for the unexpected. He
said: “That might not be quite enough.”
He continued: “Am I happy to be down at that
number next April? No, it worries the hell out of
me. I can just about do Operation Herrick, and
the QRA [quick reaction alert] commitments.
Can I do other things? Yes, but it is at risk.”Budgetary ‘black hole’
As these words were written, the RAF’s
frontline fast jet element had been reduced to
just seven operational squadrons, although
No 617 Squadron will soon take the total back
to eight. Bagwell’s six-squadron prediction
seems unlikely to come to pass, however.
But even the modest growth that has been
outlined will only be possible given sufficientresources, and with a reported ‘black hole’
in the defence budget of up to £20.8bn,
many believe that intended procurement
plans are unsustainable, and that there
will have to be further cuts to force size
even if spending does increase slightly.
The cost of defence equipment tends to rise
at a more rapid rate than ‘general’ inflation,
as it becomes increasingly sophisticated
and capable, while whole new capability
areas, such as cyber security, demand a
growing slice of the defence budget ‘pie’.
And 20 years of decline will take a long time
to reverse. Under the Labour governments
led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown between
1997 and 2010, defence spending fell from
3.5% of GDP in 1996 to 2.3% in 2007 –
the lowest percentage since the ‘height’ of
the Great Depression in the early 1930s.
Things have been no better under the
Coalition and Conservative governments
led by David Cameron and Theresa
May, with the overall strength of thehttp://www.airforcesmonthly.com #365 AUGUST 2018 // 71
The RAF’s new-look, part-privatised training system is clearly effi cient and provides a highly profi cient
aircrew output, but arguably lacks the capacity to handle a ‘surge’ of new recruits should this be
required. These Hawk T2s are pictured over North Wales, near their home at RAF Valley.A Typhoon F2 from No XI(F) Squadron
at RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire, in close
formation with a Tornado F3 previously
with the same unit. In October 2005
the unit was disbanded but re-formed
again at Coningsby on March 29, 2007
as the RAF’s second frontline Typhoon
squadron. The promised addition of two
new Typhoon units fl ying the remaining
Tranche 1 jets will provide a welcome
boon to the RAF’s fi ghter fl eet.