UK military shrinking from 198,000 in
2010 to 161,000 – a 19% reduction!
Britain boasts that (unlike most of the
alliance) it meets NATO’s defence spending
target of more than 2% of GDP, with a 2.12%
score ranking it above any other NATO
nation, save the United States and Greece.
However, Britain’s spending total includes
military pensions, and according to
International Institute for Strategic Studies’
calculations, Britain actually missed the NATO
minimum defence spending target in both 2016
and 2017, most recently by more than $1bn.
The MOD’s current Equipment Plan
covers the period from 2017 to 2027,
with hardware projected to cost £84.8bn
and associated support costing another
£88.9bn. A £6bn reserve/contingency fund
takes the total to £179.7bn. But the 2016
government pledge to spend this total was
made on the assumption that the MOD
could find £7.3bn of efficiency savings –
on top of £7.1bn previously announced.The new equipment covered by the
plan includes nine P-8A maritime
patrol aircraft, as well as the support
costs of the Typhoon squadrons.
For the other services, there are eight
Type 26 frigates for the Royal Navy, and
new army mechanised infantry vehicles.
In its January 2018 report, Ministry of
Defence: The Equipment Plan 2017 to 2027 –
The affordability of the Ministry of Defence’s
Equipment Plan, the NAO judged that the
MOD’s financial projection for equipment
was unaffordable and did not provide a
realistic forecast of the costs the department
will have to meet over the next ten years
buying and supporting the equipment it
has determined the armed forces need.
Sir Amyas Morse, the head of the NAO,
observed that: “The department’s equipment
plan is not affordable. At present, the
affordability gap ranges from a minimum of
£4.9bn to £20.8bn if financial risks materialise
and ambitious savings are not achieved.”The NAO report found that the department
has not included £9.6bn of forecast costs
in the plan (including an extra £1.3bn for
five navy frigates), because the MOD’s 2017
budget-setting process had not been able
to match costs to available budgets.
The NAO drew particular attention to
the cost of nuclear-related projects,
whose size and complexity threatened to
destabilise the plan, noting that costs for
the Dreadnought and Astute submarine
projects had risen by £941m in one year.
The NAO also said that the MOD had
failed to account for the falling value of
the pound, and that it had used the wrong
exchange rate to calculate costs.
The cross-party House of Commons Defence
Select Committee expressed “serious doubts”
over the affordability of the MOD’s spending
plans and said these were at “greater risk
than ever before”. It added that the MOD will
struggle to find the required £7.3bn – noting
that the department had proved incapable
of making such savings in the past.
Meg Hillier, the chairman of the Commons
Public Accounts Committee, said: “The
Ministry of Defence simply doesn’t have
enough money to buy all the equipment it
says it needs. Until the MOD comes up with
a realistic plan for funding new equipment
[it] is bound to end up scrapping or delaying
projects haphazardly. This is not a sensible
way of looking after our national defence.”
Defence Procurement Minister Guto Bebb
acknowledged that the plan contained “a
high level of financial risk and an imbalance
between cost and budget” but insisted that the
new Modernising Defence Programme would
“deliver better military capability and value for
money in a sustainable and affordable way”.
Meanwhile, National Security Adviser Sir
Mark Sedwill has reportedly completed a
wide-ranging strategic review of Britain’s
military and security priorities. Sir Mark
highlighted losses in capability and a lack of72 // AUGUST 2018 #365 http://www.airforcesmonthly.comRAF 100
Above: The cockpit of an RAF A400M Atlas C1 from No 70 Sqn based at RAF Brize Norton, Oxfordshire.
The transport element of the service has seen major improvements since 2007, and the RAF now has the
‘luxury’ of operating three airlifters – the Atlas, C-130J and the C-17 Globemaster III – that can take on
the full range of missions.