This phenomenon isn’t unique to
quantumcomputing,ofcourse.It’s
something we see time and again with
all new world-changing technology.
Insomeways,it’showwecandeinea
technology asworld-changing:everyone
agrees it’s going to be hugely important,
butnobodycanpredictexactlywhat
impact it will have.
Theinternetremainstheclassic
example. Although invented in the
1960s,evenbythelate1990s,the
internet was still being dismissed as
afad.Mostcommentatorsthoughtit
nothingmorethanacuriosity.
There’safamous1999interview
between David Bowie and BBC
journalist Jeremy Paxman. In it,
Bowie predicts that the internet will
changethenatureofmusic,and
erode the “barriers between creator
andaudience”.Thelongerhespoke,
themorePaxmansplutteredwith
indignationthatBowiecouldpossibly
believethisabouttheinternet.
To be fair to Paxman, in 1999,
internet at home meant accessing it
over a dial-up modem. Concepts like
YouTube, Facebook, Netlix and more
simply could not work over such limited
bandwidth.Butthefewpeoplewhose
predictionswereatleastalittleclose
to reality, all assumed that bandwidth
would increase and that streaming
music and video would be possible soon
enough.Theywerelaughedat.
Oddly enough, as the dot-com boom
intensiied,manylippedfromdoubters
tohopelessoptimists,andlostserious
moneybuildingwebsitestodeliver
contentthatsimplycouldn’t“it”down
theintertubesoftheday.
Thenintheseconddecadeof
the21stcentury:criticalmass.
Bandwidth increased massively, then
exponentially.Forgetshowinganicelittlevideoinyourbrowser,today
NetlixcanserveyouaTVshowin4K,
aslongasyouhave25Mbpsconnection.
Which millions of people now have
(thoughstatistically,asanAustralian,
youprobablydon’t,sorry).
More or less the same thing happened
alloveragainformobilephones.
Whocarriesaphoneeverywhereit’s
ridiculous!Thensmartphones-who
isdoesemail webonatinyscreenlike
that, it’sridiculous!
Quantumcomputingisn’taconsumer
technology, of course. It’s a much
bigger deal than that. Quantum
computingismoreliketheinvention
of the transistor. Sure, most people
have heard of it, but few understand it.
Heck, we don’t even really understand
it. But we’re reasonably comfortable
thatwhenalabhasthatmanyscanning
electron microscopes, it must be doing
something important, right?
Quantum computing is still at
the stage of “hit it with a hammer
until it works”. Sure the hammer
ismicroscopic,andalsoalaseror
magnetic ield of some kind, but the
pointiswe’regoingthroughtheprocess
of turning the idea into reality.
Soonerthanyouthink,though,
qubit-based computers are going to
getappliedtostuf.Whatstuf?Like
always, it will be super secret stuf irst.
Then it will ilter down to the rest of us.
And then the world will shift again
andI’llbewritinganeditorialabout
“remember when nobody realised the
impactquantumcomputingwasgoing
to make on civilisation? It all seems so
obvious now!”
Thisishowtheworldbegins.Notwith
abang,butwithalotofextremelyhard
work behind the scenes.Emergent Necessity
What will the development of quantum computers mean for
our civilisation? Oh sure, better cryptography, “more powerful”
processing,butbottomline,wejustdon’tknow...yet.ISSUE #113, APRIL 2018ANTHONY FORDHAM
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