The Economist - UK (2022-06-04)

38 The Americas The Economist June 4th 2022

If Mr Luciano Lliuya’s team are success-

ful with the first point, they will then have

to demonstrate a complex chain of cause

and effect. This will test the legal vigour of

attribution science, a booming discipline

which allows researchers to detect the in-

fluence of human emissions in specific cli-

mate events using repeated model simula-

tions. (rwe’s lawyers argue that legally es-

tablishing facts precludes the use of “gen-

eral modelling”.)

Despite repeated warnings

In addition to demonstrating a causal link

between the risk of a glacier-lake outburst

flood and climate change, Mr Luciano Lli-

uya’s lawyers will also have to convince the

court that rwe’s emissions can be held

partly responsible, in a quantifiable man-

ner. rwe’s lawyers have questioned wheth-

er 0.47% of historical emissions (which

they also argue is an over-estimate of their

share) would cause 0.47% of the risk that

Mr Luciano Lliuya faces. The lawyers also

say that it is impossible to attribute cli-

mate change “to a single person or compa-

ny”. The rise in global temperatures, they

argue, is caused by “innumerable sources”.

On top of this, rwe’s emissions were

and continue to be legal. They were gener-

ated as a by-product of electricity that was

used by millions of Europeans to power

their homes and businesses over decades.

Most of the emissions were produced be-

fore the age of cheap solar and wind power,

and before net-zero targets.

However, Germanwatch notes that rwe

was run in the 2000s by a climate sceptic,

in spite of scientific evidence available at

the time. Court documents suggest that the

German judges may consider that climate

impacts were foreseeable from 1958, when

the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere be-

gan to be recorded each day.

Even if Mr Luciano Lliuya wins and rwe

is ordered to pay up, the risk to his property

will be unchanged. Funds covering 0.47%

of the project to reinforce the lake’s defenc-

es will leave 99.53% outstanding. And in

any case that project is well within the lo-

cal government’s budget. The fact that it

has sat around for six years has more to do

with bureaucracy and corruption. Local be-

liefs complicate matters. When sophisti-

cated flood-warning systems were in-

stalled in two neighbouring villages,

threatened by different lakes, the locals de-

stroyed them (see box).

Why, then, pursue a case? Part of the an-

swer lies in the unclimate talks. For years,

rich and poor have been at loggerheads ov-

er “loss and damage”, a poorly defined con-

cept that revolves around the fact that rich

nations have historically emitted more

and poor ones have suffered the most. The

poor want the rich to pay; the rich refuse to

do so. Now the issue is being thrashed out

in the courts, as well. If Mr Luciano Lliuya

wins, his lawyers stand ready to sue other

big fossil-fuel companies.

But even if Mr Luciano Lliuya loses,

there are likely to be more cases. Perhaps

that would accelerate a green transition.

Some poor governments may even decide

to sue richer counterparts. Long before

that happens, however, Mr Luciano Lliuya

will need options to protect his family,

property and livelihood. At the moment all

three are precarious, through no fault of

his own.

1 km

Low

Source: Gobierno Regional de Ancash

Very high High Medium

Flood-risk levels in Huaraz

Río Santa

Río Paria

Río Quillcay

Saúl Luciano

Lliuya’s house

Río Auqui

Co

rd

il

le

ra

(^) B
la
nc
a
Co
rd
il
le
ra
Bl
an
ca
Río Santa
5 km
Lake Palcacocha
(4,566 m)
Lake Palcacocha
(4,566 m)
Huaraz
(3,052 m)
Huaraz
(3,052 m)
Peru
W
hen a droughtswept across
Hualcán, a village in Peru, in 2016
many of its indigenous residents felt
they knew what was to blame: antennae
at Lake 513, a blue-green pool of water
some 1,400 metres above them. Villagers
had seen scientists make the trek to visit
the antennae over the years, but few
knew why. Some said the masts had been
put there to block rains to benefit a cop-
per mine. In November that year dozens
of Quechua villagers and farmers dis-
mantled them. Within hours, it started
raining, claims Juan Reyes, a local. “The
antennae seemed to be withholding the
rain,” he says.
They were not. Lake 513 is one of
hundreds of new lakes that have formed
beneath Peru’s tropical glaciers as cli-
mate change melts them, threatening
villages below with floods and land-
slides. The antennae were part of a sys-
tem of sensors, video cameras and radio
signals that would trigger sirens down-
stream when disaster struck.
The story highlights a difficulty in-
volved in helping Peruvians adapt to
climate change. Local farmers have
vowed to bar scientists from re-installing
the system, which would give the inhab-
itants of Carhuaz downstream about 15
minutes to evacuate. Now the municipal-
ity relies on workers at another project to
report potential landslides. Officials plan
to ring bells and blow whistles.
Christian Huggel of the University of
Zurich, who spent four years developing
the dismantled system, says his team
underestimated the cultural challenges.
For locals, water scarcity seems a more
urgent problem than a disaster that may
never happen. Similarly in Huaraz, a city
where thousands live in a flood path,
some residents have opposed the map-
ping of flood risks because of concerns
about property values.
Today batteries from the dismantled
early-warning system at Lake 513 gather
dust in the village church. Justina Rodrí-
guez, a 70-year-old farmer who was
never taught to read or write, says she
hasn’t heard of climate change and is not
worried about a disaster. But she notes
that the days are hotter, the nights colder,
and the rains are less predictable. Now
that the antennae are gone, she says, if
another drought strikes, she won’t know
what to blame.
Adapting to climate change
The great rain robbery
HUALCÁN
Why Peruvian villagers tore down a flood-warning system
Unhappy to bear the weight of antennae