The Economist June 4th 2022 The Americas 39ColombiaA change is gonna come
F
or mostof the past century, Colombia
was unaffected by the shifting tides of
Latin American politics. During the 1960s
and 1970s, when right-wing military dicta-
torships swept across the region, it had a
restricted democracy in which two parties,
the Liberals and Conservatives, agreed to
share power every four years. As the pen-
dulum swung towards the left in the late
1990s and early 2000s, Colombia elected a
right-wing strongman. But now Colombi-
an exceptionalism seems to have run its
course. In the first round of presidential
elections on May 29th, voters delivered a
blow to the established parties that have
ruled the country for most of its history.
A leftist ex-rebel and a populist outsider
will compete in a run-off on June 19th. Gus-
tavo Petro, the leftist, won 8.5m votes, or
40% of all ballots cast. Rodolfo Hernández,
a former mayor who was little-known until
a few months ago, took almost 6m votes, or
28%. Federico Gutiérrez, who was backed
by the country’s traditional parties, man-
aged just 24%. The election appears to be
part of an anti-incumbent wave that is up-
ending politics across Latin America.
Mr Petro’s path to power had seemed
clear. He was expected to face Mr Gutiérrez
in the run-off, where his anti-establish-
ment credentials would have given him an
edge. But the rise of Mr Hernández has
complicated matters. The 77-year-old con-
struction magnate has a stronger claim to
be a political outsider than Mr Petro, who
has been a congressman for decades and
has run for the presidency twice before. MrGutiérrez has already said he will vote for
Mr Hernández in the run-off; his suppor-
ters are expected to follow.
One of the few things that Mr Petro and
Mr Hernández have in common is that they
were shoddy mayors. Both were suspend-
ed from office. Mr Petro, who ran Bogotá,
the capital, from 2012 to 2015, was briefly
removed in March 2014 after mishandling
the municipal takeover of a private rub-
bish-collection service. He was reinstated
a month later when the Inter-American
Court of Human Rights ruled that his dis-
missal had been unfair.
Mr Hernández, who was mayor of Buca-
ramanga, a city in the north, from 2016 to
2019, was removed three times: for slap-
ping a city councillor, for denouncing a
public official for corruption without
proof and for using public office to cam-
paign for a candidate he wanted to be his
successor. He resigned before the end of
his term. He also has a rubbish problem. In
July, two weeks before the new president is
supposed to take office, Mr Hernández will
stand trial on a corruption charge involv-
ing the licensing of a refuse-collection ser-
vice which allegedly would have benefited
his son (he denies any wrongdoing).
Apart from his stint as mayor, little is
known about Mr Hernández. His policy
programme is thin, and he has refused to
attend the presidential debates. He prom-
ises to slash vat, which makes up the bulk
of Colombia’s tax revenues, from 19% to
10%. That could overheat the economy,
which is suffering from 9% inflation, thehighest since 2000. And, like Mr Petro, he
wants to increase trade barriers and “re-
view” free-trade deals in order to strength-
en agriculture and manufacturing, poten-
tially hurting productivity. None of this
would reduce the budget deficit, which is
expected to be 6% of gdpthis year.
Mr Hernández blames corruption for
most problems. As mayor he promised to
build 20,000 homes for the poor. Yet not a
single one was completed—because, he
says, his predecessor had pilfered the mu-
nicipality’s coffers. He says he wants to fol-
low in the footsteps of Andrés Manuel Ló-
pez Obrador, Mexico’s populist leader, and
host a daily press conference in which he
would show pictures of politicians he
deems corrupt, regardless of evidence. He
thinks the courts take too long.
But in other ways Mr Hernández is diffi-
cult to place on an ideological spectrum.
He supports gay marriage and abortion,
and thinks drug prohibition has not
worked. He says he would slash salaries for
elected representatives. A basic-income
grant would replace welfare programmes.
Mr Petro’s programme is more grandi-
ose. While he also wants to increase tariffs
and renegotiate trade deals, he plans to in-
crease tax collection by 5.5% of gdpover
four years, through pension reform and by
clamping down on tax exemptions. He
would ban new licences for oil exploration
even though crude oil, coal and minerals
account for more than half of Colombia’s
exports. He promises to make university
education free and to guarantee state jobs
for all the country’s unemployed—around
11% of the labour force.
Both candidates would have to rule
with a divided Congress. Mr Hernández’s
self-styled League of Anti-Corrupt Rulers
won only two seats in legislative elections
in March. He did not propose a list for the
Senate, and has vowed not to make alli-
ances with politicians of any stripe. Mr Pe-
tro would have an easier time. Though his
coalition does not have a majority, it has
the largest bloc of seats in the Senate. Mr
Petro has also included politicians from
traditional parties in his campaign.
If elected, Mr Hernández may try to
forge a direct connection with the people,
bypassing the normal institutions. He has
a fondness for tweeting out policy pro-
nouncements. As mayor, he hosted Face-
book Live events every week in which he
lambasted other politicians and hailed his
own achievements. In an interview with
the Washington Posthe likened his follow-
ers to the “brainwashed” terrorists who
committed the September 11th attacks on
the United States, because, he says, he has
a “messianic” effect on them. Such gaffes
have allowed Mr Petro to present himself
as the “safe” candidate. That may convince
a few voters. But for now it seems that Mr
Hernández has the edge. BOGOTÁ
A leftist ex-guerrilla and a populist face off for the presidency