The Sunday Times - UK (2022-06-05)

Warring ministers

hold up plans to

build 40 hospitals

The Sunday Times June 5, 2022 9

POLITICS

ister said. “George’s view is that power is never given, it has to be taken. But Jeremy has rejected that advice.”

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unt will also have to compete for support in the One Nation group of MPs with Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the foreign affairs select committee, who has quietly built a support base and has donors lined up. Like Hunt, he has not been tainted by membership of the government for the past three years. Tugendhat moved swiftly to distance himself from his fellow remainer Tobias Ellwood, who suggested on Thursday that Britain should rejoin the EU single market, a move violently unpopular with the Conservative membership. Johnson’s team seized on it to argue that the rebels want to reverse Brexit. A Johnson ally said: “We are beginning to think Ellwood is a secret agent for Boris.” Mordaunt, who flirted with the leadership throughout 2018 but ended up not running, is raising both her profile and others’ eyebrows. Rival camps are com- piling a dossier on the numerous occa- sions she has tweeted denunciations of government policy, to which she is bound by collective responsibility. Some were surprised that someone eyeing the leadership would arrive in Hay, as Mordaunt did last week, by helicopter. A Johnson loyalist said: “Penny is like Steve Baker in a dress: someone who dreams that the nation is going to turn to them like they did to Churchill in 1939 and that we are now in 1938. Penny has all the quali- ties of leadership, except followers.” If there is a contest Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, will present herself as a proto-Thatcherite tax cutter. Her allies hope that Priti Patel, the home secretary, also runs, as one senior Tory put it, “so she is not the lunatic”. Her biggest cabinet rival could end up being Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, who is seen as a safe pair of hands. The big question hangs over Rishi Sunak, who was the heir apparent until the spring statement and revelations about his millionaire wife’s non-dom tax status. Friends of the chancellor have privately suggested that he might not run, but it is understood that he now believes his standing with the public is not as bad as his crit- ics claim and that he would throw his hat in the ring. The absence of a stand-out replacement, however, has given Johnson confidence that he can survive. When Theresa May was challenged in 2019, she got 200 votes, with 117 against her, securing 63 per cent of the vote. She resigned six months later. In the 1995 leadership contest, John Major beat John Redwood by 218 votes to 89, with another 22 abstaining, securing 66 per cent of the MPs’ vote. A member of Major’s team says that he privately admitted that he had “just scraped through”, getting “five or six votes” more than the total at which he had decided to resign. He lost the 1997 election in a landslide.

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he rebels hope the precedent that applies will be Heseltine’s challenge to Thatcher. He got 152 votes in the first round to Thatcher’s 204, but it was enough to get the cabinet to withdraw their support, and cleared the way for the leader who emerged — Major — to win the 1992 election. If today’s rebels can secure 121 votes, Johnson will have done as badly as Major. If they get 133, he will have done worse than May. If they get 147 he will have done worse than Thatcher. John- son will not set himself such parame- ters. “If he wins by one vote he will fight to the death,” one minister said. But a ministerial aide said: “If he wins by one vote he will be mortally dam- aged.” If Johnson does badly but refuses to budge, a former cabinet minister said: “It is the job of the chief whip to decide what is in the best inter- ests of the party and present him with a brandy and a revolver. The problem is that Boris would prob- ably drink the brandy and shoot the chief.” An alternative would be for cabinet ministers to resign or tell Johnson to go. “It is not clear that they have the balls or the gumption to do it,” one lead- ing plotter said. The government will make a series of NHS announcements this week in what has been dubbed “health week” in No 10. MPs hope it goes better than “crime week”, which came as the Sue Gray report was released into John- son’s law-breaking during lockdown. In an effort to show that he is making the political weather, the prime minister is expected to make a speech on Thurs- day announcing plans to let housing asso- ciation tenants buy their flats. “He is very preoccupied with expanding the right to buy,” a close aide said. “He sees it as a new property-owning revolution.” A second speech, jointly delivered with Sunak, on how to boost growth, will follow a week later. Aides say Johnson has quietly consulted a new group of academ- ics and experts on the ways to “turbo- charge” growth and get the economy firing. His MPs, however, are preoccupied with another firing. Or whether they should, as Shakespeare put it: “Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.” Tom Newton Dunn, page 28

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s relaxation choices go, Guto Harri’s decision to spend part of the jubilee week watching a performance of Julius Caesar seems bold. With MPs sharpening their knives and a vote of confidence in Boris John- son now likely, the Down- ing Street director of com- munications settled in to watch the staged assassination of a once beloved leader by a group of disillusioned allies. Harri joked with colleagues that the open-air performance at the Hay literary festival proved that “toppling a strong leader who has won great victories ended badly”. A No 10 official privately suggested that Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary who is a favourite to succeed Johnson, is “an honourable man”, a mantle bestowed by Shake- speare on the chief conspirator, Brutus. In this production, Brutus was played by a woman. And it was Dame Andrea Leadsom, a former cabinet minister who backed Johnson in 2019, who last week accused the prime minister of “unaccept- able failings of leadership” over the Downing Street parties scandal and suggested that she was thinking about sub- mitting a letter of no confidence in his leadership. Party whips believe Leadsom was acting as an outrider for Penny Mor- daunt, the Brexiteer international trade minister who is expected to run. Under party rules 54 letters are required to trigger a secret ballot and whips and rebel MPs alike believe they are on the verge of that threshold. One rebel, who has been keeping a private tally, believes that up to 67 letters have gone in. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, will count the letters, which can also be submitted by email and WhatsApp, when parliament returns on Monday morning. If they total 54 or more, he will contact the prime minister. Officers of the 1922 executive have already pencilled in Wednesday as the day for the leadership vote. To oust the prime minister the rebels need to muster 180 votes against Johnson. Another backbench number cruncher has calculated that up to 190 Tory MPs could vote against him. A former cabinet minister said: “It’s 55 per cent that it happens on Monday or Tuesday. It’s 80 per cent there’s a vote after the two by-elections [on June 23].” Conservative high com- mand is braced for the loss of both Tiver- ton & Honiton, where the Liberal Dem- ocrats are threatening a Tory majority of 24,000, and Wakefield, a “red wall” seat won from Labour in 2019.

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abour’s less-than-stellar performance in the red wall in the local elections has, however, calmed the nerves of Tory MPs in the 2019 intake and has left many hopeful of regain- ing Wakefield in a general election. A poll today, by JL Partners, shatters that narrative. It puts Labour 20 points clear of the Conservatives in Wakefield and shows that voters are blaming John- son. Tory internal polling also suggests that a “disastrous” loss is on the cards. In a second worrying development for Johnson, a Conservative donor who has given more than £340,000 to the party since 2010 has demanded the prime minister’s removal. The financier Michael Tory, the founder of Ondra Partners, says that unless Johnson is replaced, the Tories face ten years in the wilderness. “I was a loyal and longstanding donor but can only resume donating if there is an immediate change of leadership,” he said. “And it has to be now — before it’s too late to avoid a richly deserved obliter- ation at the next election, followed prob- ably by a decade in opposition.” The nerves of Conservative MPs were not helped by footage on Friday of John- son and his wife, Carrie, arriving at St Paul’s Cathedral for the thanksgiving ser- vice to mark the Queen’s Platinum Jubi- lee. A few cheers from the crowd were swiftly drowned out by a wave of booing. Johnson also had to read a lesson from Philippians extolling the virtue of truth, a text chosen for him by the Palace. In No 10 officials say that Johnson is “sanguine” about a challenge and “upbeat” about his prospects. But Harri, a Welsh rugby fan, felt it necessary to keep the prime minister’s morale high by telling him the initial cries of “Boris! Boris!” were “like the English rugby crowd singing Swing Low Sweet Chariot” and the boos equivalent to a Welsh crowd responding with You Can Shove Your F***ing Chariot Up Your Arse. Those who watched Johnson on a jubilee visit to his Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency last week say he was greeted with “great warmth” by voters. “I can’t get that excited about all this talk of a no confidence vote,” a member of the inner circle said. “We’ve had so many false dusks. It’s like hair loss: if you worry about it, it’s more likely to happen.” However, some of Johnson’s close allies are concerned that Downing Street is complacent about his staying power. David Canzini, the deputy chief of staff, is said to be “exercised about it”. The shadow whipping operation that helped to shore up Johnson’s position when the parties scandal first broke has in effect been disbanded, although one of its number, Chris Heaton-Harris, is now chief whip. The group’s driving force, Nigel Adams, has been on holiday. Others such as Conor Burns, Tom Pursglove, Will Quince and Leo Docherty have not been enlisted for the battle ahead — although

ister said. “George’s view is that p is never given, it has to be taken Jeremy has rejected that advice. unt will also have to compe support in the One Nation gro MPs with Tom Tugendhat, man of the foreign affairs committee, who has quietly b support base and has donors line Like Hunt, he has not been taint membership of the government fo past three years. Tugendhat moved swiftly to dis himself from his fellow remainer T Ellwood, who suggested on Thu that Britain should rejoin the EU market, a move violently unpopula the Conservative membership. John team seized on it to argue that the r want to reverse Brexit. A Johnson said: “We are beginning to think Ell is a secret agent for Boris.” Mordaunt, who flirted with the le ship throughout 201 8 but ended u running,is raising both her profil others’ eyebrows. Rival camps are piling a dossier on the numerous sions she has tweeted denunciatio government policy, to which she is b by collective responsibility. Some were surprised that som eyeing the leadership would in Hay, as Mordaunt did last w by helicopter. A Johnson lo aid: “Penny is like Steve Ba dress: someone who dr hat the nation is going to them like they d Churchill in 1939 and that w now in 1938. Penny has all the ties of leadership, except followers. z Truss,th ent hersel utter. Her home secr Tory put i Her biggest being Na ecretary, w ds. ngs over r apparent and revela e’s non-do ncellor hav might no d that he nding with as bad as hi nd that he w t in the rin ce of a stan however, nfidence th n Theresa 01 9, she go her, securi he resigne p contest, d by 218 vo aining, sec te. A mem privately a raped thro ” more tha cided to r in a landsli preceden ltine’s chal 152 votes her’s 204, the cabin and cleare merged — n. secure 121 v ne as bad e will have y get 147 h Thatcher. lf such pa ne vote h ne minister said: “If he e mortally adly but re cabinet mi f the chief n the best nd presen a revolver ris would dy and sho uld befor n or tell Joh hat they hav o do it,” one

ation choices go, arri’s decision to art of the jubilee atching a perform- Julius Caesarrseems th MPs sharpening ives and a vote of nce in Boris John- likely, the Down- et director of com- in to watch the of a once beloved disillusioned allies. colleagues that the e at the Hay literary “toppling a strong great victories ended ficial privately sug- Hunt, the former hois a favourite to is “an honourable estowed by Shake- onspirator, Brutus. , Brutus was played was Dame Andrea abinet minister who 019 ,who lastweek inister of “unaccept- adership” over the ies scandal and sug- thinking about sub- o confidence in his ips believe Leadsom rider for Penny Mor- international trade cted to run. es 54 letters are a secret ballot and s alike believe they that threshold. One n keeping a private p to 67 letters have

Tim Shipman Chief Political Commentator

With polls predicting by-election trouble, the PM looks increasingly exposed. Rebels say the letters demanding a confidence vote are enough to sink him

Tim

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inggggggggggplotter said. The government wil of NHS announcencnncnnncccm iiiin ii wh duddududdududddud

hop than “crime week”, whic Sue Gray report was rele son’s law-breaking during In an effort to show th the political weather, the is expected to make a sp dayannouncing plans to l ciation tenants buy their f preoccupied with expand buy,” a close aide said. “ new property-owning rev A second speech, jo with Sunak,on how to bo follow a week later. Aides quietly consulted a new gr ics and experts on the w

ap rady, e of T etters mail an rns on or mo ster. O alre he da the p muste ther er ha ory M inet m that day. I fter th Cons for th where ening Wak n from

s-tha red w how ory MP man a gen by JL tput nserv voter nal p us” los orryi servat n £3 4 eman The er of O hnson ears i and l sume hange s to b a rich t elect e in op f Con ootage fe, Ca for th e Que rs fro out b ad to lling t him by cials out his p fan, minis initial cries of “Boris! like the English rugby wing Low Sweet Chariot” uivalent to a Welsh crowd h Yo uCan Shove Your Up who n on a jubi- Uxbridge & South Ruislipipp ast week say he was eat warmth” by voters. “I cited about all this talk of e vote,” a member of the d. “We’ve had so many ike hair loss: if you worry re likely to happen.” me of Johnson’s close rned that Downing Street about his staying power. he deputy chief of staff, is xercised about it”. The ng operation that helped nson’s position whenthe

oa p, p If there is a contest Liz eign secretary, will prese proto-Thatcherite tax cu hope that Priti Patel, the h also runs, as one senior she is not the lunatic”. H net rival could end up Zahawi, the education se seen as a safe pair of hand The big questionha Sunak, who was the heir thespring statement a about his millionaire wife status. Friends of the chan vately suggested that he but it is understood believes his stan public is not a ics claim an throw his hat The absenc replacement, given Johnson con can survive. Whe was challenged in 2 0 votes, with 117 against h per cent of the vote. Sh monthslater. In the 1995 leadership Major beat John Redwood 89, with another 22 absta 6 6 per cent of the MPs’ vo Major’s team says that he ted that he had “just scr getting “five or six votes” total at which he had de He lost the 1 99 7 election i he rebels hope the applies will be Hesel to Thatcher. Hegot first round to Thatch was enough to get withdraw their support, way for the leader who em — to win the 1992 election If today’s rebels can s Johnson will have don Major. If they get 133, h worse than May. If they have done worse than son will not set himsel ters. “If he wins by o figfht to the death,” on But a ministerial aide by one vote he will be aged.” If Johnson does ba to budge, a former c said: “It is the job o to decide what is in ests of the party an with a brandy and problem is that Bor ably drink the brand chief.” An alternative wo net ministers to resign to go. “It is not clear th balls or the gumption to ingplpotter said.

po a the chairman of the Tory backbenchers, s, which can also b nd WhatsApp, w n Monday mor ore, he will con Officers of the 1922 eady pencilled in ay for the leadership prime minister the er 1 80 votesagainst backbench as calculated Ps could vote minister said: it happens on It’s 80 per cent he two by-elections ervative high com- he loss of both Tiver- ethe LiberalDem- g a Tory majority kefield, a “red m Labour in

an-stellar perform- wall in the local elec- wever, calmedededeeededededeeedededeeeeeeed eeeeeeeeededeedeeeeeddddthe Ps in the 2019 intake ny hopeful of rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrregaegaeegaeegaegaegaeegaegaegaegaegaegaegaegaegaegaeegaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeegaggggaaaaain-ininiiiniiiiniiiiinininininininininiiiinnnnnnn neral election. L Partners, shatters ts Labour 20 points vatives in Wakefield rs are blaming John- olling also suggests ss is on the cards. ing development for tive donor who has 4 0,000 to the party nded the prime min- e financier Michael Ondra Partners, says n is replaced, the in the wilderness. longstanding donor donating if there is e of leadership,” he be now — before it’s hly deserved obliter- tion, followed prob- pposition.” nservative MPs were e on Friday of John- arrie, arriving at St he thanksgiving ser- een’s Platinum Jubi- om the crowd were by a wave of booing. read a lesson from the virtue of truth, a y the Palace. say that Johnson is a challenge and rospects. But Harri, felt it necessary to ter’s morale high by ial cries of “Boris!

rs, o be when orning. contact 922

Can

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has “dusted down his spreadsheet” of Johnson’s supporters and opponents. Those with long memories warn that it was complacency from Margaret Thatcher’s parlia- mentary aide Peter Morrison when Michael Heseltine challenged for the leadership in 1990 that meant she did not fight back until it was too late. “There is a dangerously fine line between being upbeat and being cavalier and careless,” one disgruntled Johnson admirer said. Claims of tensions between Canzini and Harri linger, despite Canzini recently buying the spin doctor a box of chocolates. Insiders also say Johnson is now speaking regularly to Will Lewis, a former editor of The Daily Tele- graph, for presentational advice. If there is a vote, Johnson loyalists will make

the case that he has a track record of winning four major elections and he is the only potential leader capable of winning in the red wall. He may be aided by the reticence of his putative rival, Hunt. In conversations with colleagues Hunt has emphasised that he does not yet support a challenge. One of his supporters said: “Jeremy wants to be clear when the bal- loon goes up that he didn’t send it up.” Intriguingly, it can also be revealed that Hunt asked one of Johnson’s closest friends to con- vey a message directly to the prime minister that he does “not think the time is right for a change of leader”. This has raised eyebrows among the Cameroon faction of Tories, who regard Hunt as the best hope for a restoration of their kind of Conservatism. That “causes George Osborne’s lip to curl”, one former min-

Johnson

weather

the

ILLUSTRATION: RUSSEL HERNEMAN

storm?

by c So e in by sai a d tha to Chu now ties

Source: JL Partners questioned 501 adults in Wakefield, May 13-

Conservative 28% (-19.3) Labour 48% (+8.2) Liberal Democrat 7% (+3) Reform UK 3% (-3.1 from Brexit Party) Green 8% (Did not stand in 2019)

WAKEFIELD BY-ELECTION Voting intention against 2019

Tories face

crushing

defeat in

Wakefield

unconvincing. Some 24 per cent think Johnson is a “strong leader”, whereas 53 per cent do not. The Tories trail by more than two to one with women (55 per cent to 27 per cent) and by 42 per cent to 30 per cent among men. Labour also leads in each socio-economic group and with every age group apart from the over- 65s. The shift in Wakefield represents a swing from the

Conservatives to Labour of 13.75 per cent. While by- elections are notoriously difficult to use for predicting general elections, such a swing in a general election would see Labour seizing 129 Tory seats — enough to secure a working majority. The Wakefield by-election was called after the conviction of the Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan for sexual assault on a 15-year-old boy. Some 49 per cent cited “the Conservative MP last time was a criminal” as a good reason to vote Labour. It is understood that the Tories’ internal polling also shows Labour winning big in Wakefield, but that was not shared with MPs. The by-election takes place on June 23. Tiverton & Honiton also holds a by-election that day after the resignation of the Tory Neil Parish, who admitted twice watching pornography in the Commons. Losing a majority there of more than 24,000 is possible and will concern Tories in southern seats. Johnson’s personal approval rating in Wakefield is minus 37. Among his potential challengers, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor has a net approval rating of minus 35; Liz Truss, the foreign secretary scores minus 27; and Priti Patel, the home secretary is on minus 48. For Labour, Starmer scores minus 28. Angela Rayner, his deputy, is the most popular on minus 17.

→Continued from page 1

Lord Stevens, the former NHS England chief executive, criticised the delays during a House of Lords debate on new procurement legislation. Stevens, who stepped down as head of the NHS in July 2021, said the root causes of delays in big infrastructure projects were a lack of long- term funding, slow approvals and a lack of political direction. “We are seeing that right now in connection with the proposed building of 40 new hospitals,” he told peers. “There is a need to get on with it, but the fact is that we have only a three-year capital allocation, £3.7 billion, and that does not buy you 40 hospitals.” Despite the first eight hospitals being described as ready to go, he said: “We now see in the latest [health department] publication that their planned start date is ‘TBC’.” One of the hospitals waiting for news is the Queen Elizabeth in Kings Lynn, Norfolk, which is having to use 1,500 steel and timber supports to hold up its roof in 56 separate areas. The hospital is due to reach the end of its life in 2030 and its controlling trust has asked for £862 million to rebuild it. Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS

Boris Johnson’s election pledge of 40 new hospitals is mired in delays, mounting costs and a government row over control of the project. NHS leaders are concerned that some works will never get off the ground because of wrangling between what one source described as the “toxic triangle” of No 10, the Treasury and the Department of Health. Others could be delayed — and hospital trusts forced to go back to the drawing board — should funding fall short. In 2019, the prime minister announced plans to build 40 hospitals by 2030, with eight schemes that had already been announced added later. However, to date only six projects that predate his premiership have started construction, and just one — a £35 million cancer centre in Cumbria — has been completed. Ten smaller schemes are due to start before September 2024, but eight “pathfinder” schemes that should be completed no later than 2028 have yet to be given a start date. These eight schemes are big, complicated projects that will be used as test cases for subsequent builds. A group of hospitals waiting for permission to rebuild centres in Leeds, Leicester, Manchester, Hertfordshire, Essex and London have been told not to expect news until later this year, after being previously told a decision would come in the spring. The Treasury has taken control of the programme’s budget and has refused to approve any scheme until the Department of Health and No 10 agree on a total bill. A final proposal was approved at a meeting of the Treasury’s major projects committee in April, but the final decision was delayed for approval by the three departments. Rishi Sunak’s officials fear that costs will spiral because of rising inflation and supply shortages. They are not confident the health department will be able to control spending, insiders say. A source said that the Treasury had a “clipping the wings” attitude to the health department. Since 2010 there has been a sustained lack of investment in capital spending in the NHS. The cost of the maintenance backlog for more than 200 hospital trusts reached £9.2 billion in 2021; £1.5 billion of it was classed as being high risk to patients. The slow progress at clearing the backlog could have consequences for budgets, with the business department warning that the price of construction materials had increased by 24 per cent in a year.

Shaun Lintern Health Editor

Confederation, said: “The government’s hospital building programme is in danger of being the dog that never barks. The government launched these flagship new builds with much fanfare, but NHS leaders are becoming increasingly frustrated that the money isn’t following through. The fear now is that some of these schemes may never see the light of day.” Saffron Cordery, of NHS Providers, said: “Trusts are unable to get the shovel in the ground and they fear being on the receiving end of local reputational damage, because it looks as though they’re unable to manage ... the reality is that [they] are ready to push ahead and are waiting for the green light from the programme.” The health department said it had received 128 bids for money from 100 NHS trusts and that details would be announced later this year. A spokeswoman added that inflationary costs were being factored into the plans. @ShaunLintern

There is a ‘clipping the wings’ attitude

The Sunday Times - UK (2022-06-05)

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