9. Postscript
the future for Port and the douro
At the start of the new century, the Port trade had never had it so good. With three
decades of steady growth and investment, new markets and buoyant sales, the outlook
seemed positive. Twelve years later a sharp dose of reality has set in. Port sales peaked in
2000 and have been falling slowly since. Three markets, France, Holland and Belgium,
account for nearly 60 per cent of worldwide sales and the average price per litre has barely
moved over the past decade. At the same time, the cost of growing grapes and producing
Port has been rising steeply. As I write this postscript, the shippers are being faced with
a 60 per cent rise in the cost of aguardente, the spirit that makes up 20 per cent of Port.
The Douro is never going to be a cheap place to produce wine. The terrain does not
lend itself to mechanisation and with labour in short supply, the region is potentially
one of the most costly regions in the world to produce wine. The extreme fragmentation
of the landholdings limits economies of scale. As old farmers retire and die off, grape
growing is not appealing to their children who prefer the bright lights of the cities and
the coast to the hard slog of the Douro. For large parts of the Douro, there will have to be
some consolidation of vineyard holdings over the medium term.
There are plenty of properties for sale in the Douro but few buyers. The financial crisis
in 2008 put a stop to the international speculation in quintas that had driven prices sky
high. With the wave of takeovers and mergers that have taken place following the retreat
of the multinationals, the main shippers have the vineyards they need and are not looking
out for more. There has been overplanting in recent years, mostly in the Douro Superior,
and the region is currently facing a surplus of grapes (see below).
Tourism continues to gain in importance and the construction of new roads (which is
continuing despite the international debt crisis) will further open up the region, making
it accessible for day trips from Oporto and the coast. Oporto has become a hub for low-
cost airlines and a destination for short breaks, but the hotel building that took off during
the 2000s has come to an abrupt halt and occupancy both in Oporto and the Douro has
been disappointingly low. Tourism has helped to diversify the economy and promote the