82 AUSTRALIAN SKY & TELESCOPE JULY 2016E
versinceIwasakid,it’sseemed
like sending astronauts to Mars
hasalwaysbeen30yearsaway.
Overthepasthalfcentury,NASAand
other agencies and organisations have
commissioned dozens of studies about this
grand goal, with landing dates variously
between the 1970s and 2040s. Of course,
none of those missions have come to pass
(except in sci-fi movies). Recently, however,
two big changes have, perhaps finally,
made human missions to Mars not only
practical but also possibly imminent.
The first is the widespread acceptance
that visiting Mars in person is not just a
fanciful idea but is actuallyinevitablein
the near future. The scientific community
has beguntoalignaspectsoftheongoing
robotic Mars survey program toward
experiments and technologies that
coulddirectlybenefitfuturehuman
missions. In the US, multiple Congresses
and Presidential administrations have
officiallyadoptedhumanexplorationof
Mars as a major goal for NASA’s near-
term future. And judging from my
experience talking with students, news
media and general audiences, the public
has also accepted this idea. Average
people are excited about robotic researchGetting humans to Mars
Hasthislong-termdreamsuddenlybecomeinevitable,evenimminent?
but also realise that the biggest leaps in
the scientific reconnaissance of Mars will
need to be made by the men and women
whogothereandsharetheirstoriesand
discoveries with the rest of us back home.
Thesecondbigchangeistherecent
emergence of practical, affordable,
and sustainable plans to begin to send
astronauts to the Red Planet. This is
notjustforashort,one-off‘flags-and-
footsteps’ mission. Rather it’s part of a
longer-term strategy to develop a scientific
research outpost there and, perhaps, even
a settlement.
ThePlanetarySocietyrecentlypitched
oneoftheseplansaspartofits‘Humans
Orbiting Mars’ initiative (hom.planetary.
org).TheproposaldetailshowNASA’s
forthcoming Space Launch System
rockets,OrioncrewcapsulesandDeep
Space Habitation modules would first
demonstrate the ability to get a crew to
Mars orbit in the early 2030s. A series of
Mars crew landings would follow starting
inthelate2030s.
The basic premise of that plan,
which can realistically fit within NASA’s
existing budget (if it keeps up with
inflation), is similar to the logic behind
the Apollo 8 mission: build missionsincrementally, validating pieces such as
long interplanetary cruises and orbiting
Mars first, then later add the complexities
of landing and ascent.
Another of these plans, still in its
infancy, comes courtesy of SpaceX and
its visionary CEO Elon Musk. Musk’s
personal goal, and the driver behind all
of SpaceX’s rocketry and other research,
is “enabling people to live on other
planets,” and specifically to begin the
colonisation of Mars. While the timeline
for the company’s Red Planet plans
remains unclear, SpaceX has certainly
shown an impressive, rapidly attained
level of technical prowess and public
interest. It might actually have the ability
to send people to Mars in the late 2020s
or early 2030s.
The huge popularity of the recent book
and film The Martian is not a random
occurrence. Rather it is a manifestation
of an idea whose time has come.
Dispatching people to Mars is no longer
science fiction but instead a reality that
will come true in the very near future. ✦Jim Bell is an astronomer, author (most
recently of The Interstellar Age), and
president of The Planetary Society.© BIGSTOCKPHOTO.COMFocal Point
JIM BELL