City ELECTION
their voters. They’re the places where
urban problems like homelessness
and drug addiction, poverty and
immigrant enclaves, unaffordable
housing, crime and traffic conges-
tion have migrated steadily in the
last couple of decades, while social
services—schools, health care, tran-
sit—haven’t come anywhere near to
coping with the growth. Meanwhile,
tides of newcomers have arrived since- These new immigrants,
downsizing boomers, young
couples driven out of the city
by high prices, and job seekers
from Alberta and Ontario
weren’t around to vote last
time. Their political affilia-
tions may be very different
from what has been the norm.
“There have been demographic
changes out in the suburbs. Younger
professionals are moving out, bring-
ing progressive values,” says Hamish
Te l f o r d , a p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e p r o f e s s o r
at the University of the Fraser Valley
and an Abbotsford resident. Those
new suburbanites are more impatient
about the problems. Telford’s own
son has been going to school in a
portable for two years because of the
lack of money for new buildings, even
while the area booms. South of Fraser
residents are angry about having to
pay a toll on the Por t Mann Bridge and
possibly a new one coming up for the
Pattullo Bridge, while transit options
continue to disappoint. And the in-
crease in housing costs in the suburbs
have been, in some cases, even more
dramatic than in Vancouver. “The
property assessments in Abbotsford
are up more than 35 percent, which
has made housing much less afford-
able,” says Telford.
Then there’s the fact that the
suburbs are at another important
crossroads. One analysis of the 2012
American presidential election by
analyst Dave Troy showed that voter
behaviour followed density. A place
with more than 800 people per squaremile (in Canadian terms, 308 people
per square kilometre) was significant-
ly more likely to vote Democrat. One
with fewer than that was significantly
more likely to vote Republican. That
same dynamic played out again in
2016 and Canadian federal elections
show similar patterns, according to
a study by Vancouver demographer
Andy Yan.
The suburbs, especially the newer
ones that are seeing townhouses and
condos sprout just as fast as single-
family homes, are right at the tipping
point. “The more dense an area
becomes, the more likely it is going to
vote like East Vancouver,” says Greg
Lyle, whose company, Innovative
Research, has done polling for years
for conser vative parties.
But will that make those urbaniz-
ing suburbanites vote NDP or Green?That depends on what they are the
most emotional about, says Lyle.
Yes, suburban voters are running
on high levels of cor tisol. But the Lib-
erals have been doing plenty to allay
that. Economists might think moves
like the interest-free loans for down
payments are fiscally ridiculous, but
polling shows that people love them—
especially in the suburbs, where
they’re the most likely to qualify. Yes,they’re anxious about schools, but as
Lisa Garner and Karen Tan demon-
strate in Surrey, that anxiety can be
eased with what looks like a solid plan
to invest in them.
Or the NDP could play on their
anxieties by reminding them of
how many times the Liberals have
promised improvements and then
abandoned them post-election.
“This is a government in power for
16 years,” says Lyle. A few weeks of
bad news for the Liberals just before
the election are a ll it would take to put
the NDP in front.
And then, of course, there’s a third,
distant option.
“Suburban voters are not going to
vote Green for the environment. What
defines them is the car,” he says. “But
they could vote Green as a ‘pox on
both your houses.’”Younger professionals are moving
out [to the suburbs], bringing
progressive values.”
—HAMISH TELFORD, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT UFVSURVEY SAYS The Personal Is Political: top issues transform when viewed through a different lens
26 VANMAG.COM MAY 2017What are the
top issues
facing B.C.today? (^) 32%
Say: Housing,
Homelessness & Poverty
16%
Say: Economy
& Jobs
23%
Say: Health Care