TUESDAY, JUNE 7 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A
Politics & the NationBY HANNAH KNOWLES
AND ANNIE LINSKEYIn San Francisco, voters will
decide Tuesday whether to recall
a liberal prosecutor whom critics
have accused of being too le-
nient. In deep-blue Los Angeles,
a billionaire ex-Republican in the
mayoral race is betting that vot-
ers want tough talk on crime.
And in California’s farm coun-
try, the GOP’s most electable
candidate is under fire for his
vote to impeach President Don-
ald Trump for his role in the Jan.
6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Primaries spread across Cali-
fornia and six other states Tues-
day will further s hape Democrats
and Republicans’ identities in
the midterms, as established
GOP candidates — some of
whom have bucked Trump — try
to fend off challengers from the
right and as liberal contenders
reckon with a backlash over their
party’s policies and messaging
on public safety and growing
concerns about an increase in
violent crime.
From the Deep South to the
Mountain West, voters will be
picking candidates in municipal,
congressional and statewide con-
tests with s ome significant impli-
cations in the November mid-
terms. Their choices will offer
clues about the direction of both
parties in the run-up to an elec-
tion in which Republicans are
expected to make gains across
the country.
Many of Tuesday’s primaries
— in California, Iowa, Mississip-
pi, Montana, New Jersey, New
Mexico and South Dakota — will
not be competitive. But some
have been heated and have sent
signals about the battle lines this
fall.
GOP strategists have ham-
mered Democrats over rising
costs and violent crime, arguing
to voters that their opponents
are culpable for trends that have
worsened on their watch as the
party in power in many major
cities, as well as in Congress and
at the White House. Tuesday’s
vote poses a new test for Demo-
crats on crime, an issue they h ave
struggled to navigate. Even in
left-leaning areas, voters are sig-
naling an appetite for a new
direction.
“Democrats, for some reason
tend to take a bit longer than
their Republican counterparts to
wake up to political realities,”
said Jon Reinish, a Democratic
strategist. If San Francisco Dis-
trict Attorney Chesa Boudin is
decisively recalled, he said, and if
businessman Rick Caruso does
well in the Los Angeles mayoral
race, “that’s going to shake a lot
of people awake.”
Boudin rose to national prom-
inence in 2019 as a “progressive
prosecutor” promising to fight
mass incarceration. Now he’s a
focus of anger over rising crime
during the pandemic, as Demo-
crats have toughened their tone
on crime nationwide and Repub-
licans continue to draw attention
to some far-left calls to “defund
the police.” President Biden and
other party leaders have strenu-
ously tried to distance them-
selves from that idea, urging
more police funding alongside
other proposals for improving
public safety.
Supporters of Boudin and Car-
uso’s chief opponent, Rep. Karen
Bass (D-Calif.), say these more
liberal candidates are offering
nuanced solutions on public
safety rather than sound bites.
Bass, a well-known lawmaker
with a history in community
organizing, has emphasized so-
cial interventions to prevent
crime and says different neigh-
borhoods want different things
from police. “We’ve tried arrest-
ing our way out of the problem
before — it doesn’t work,” her
campaign website declares.
“Karen Bass understands you
need to go beyond talking tough
and be smart and comprehensive
about how you deal with these
complicated issues,” former Los
Angeles mayor Antonio Villarai-
gosa, who endorsed Bass, said in
an interview Monday. “Poverty.
The mental health crisis. The gun
violence that we see in our cities.
You don’t solve these problems
with a magic wand.”
But Bass might be in for a long
and difficult race against Caruso,
a real estate developer and for-
mer president of the city Police
Commission. I f no candidate gets
a majority of the vote, as some
polls have suggested could hap-
pen in the crowded race, the top
two would advance to a Novem-
ber showdown.
Caruso has spent tens of mil-
lions of his own money pitching
himself as the change candidate
who will take on crime and
homelessness. He became a
Democrat this year, switching
from “no party preference,” but
has sought to signal that he
would not he a prototypical
member of his new party.
Some analysts say Caruso’s
best shot to win the mayoral race
could be Tuesday’s primary. The
higher turnout expected in a
runoff would probably help Bass,
they said.
Bass’s campaign s ought to sug-
gest that Caruso is underper-
forming despite the massive
spending. “He should be 20points above us for the spending
differential,” said Anna Bahr, a
spokeswoman for Bass’s cam-
paign, attributing Caruso’s suc-
cess in part to his deep pockets
and name recognition as a devel-
oper of shopping malls.
Peter Ragone, an adviser to
Caruso’s campaign, responded in
an interview Monday that past
California campaigns have
shown that “money without a
message is not very effective.”
The former aide to California
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) argued
that Caruso has “emphasized
public safety and the way people
feel about their public safety
more than other candidates.”
Boudin, meanwhile, appears
to be at serious risk of recall. An
attempt to remove Los Angeles
County District Attorney George
Gascon (D) is also underway.
If recalls are successful in such
Democratic strongholds, said
Los Angeles-based Democratic
strategist Mike Trujillo, “then
you have to make strong and
hard assessments that in swing
districts and swing states, things
are in a more dire place.”
Republicans were navigating
their own challenges.
In Orange County, a super PAC
dedicated to maintaining the
Republican majority in the
House of Representatives has
sought to boost incumbent Rep.
Young Kim (R) as she faces a
challenge to her right from re-
tired fighter pilot Greg Raths. In
California, the top two vote-get-
ters move on from the primary
regardless of their party affilia-
tion and Democrats said they see
national Republicans’ spending
money a ttacking Rath as a s ign of
nervousness that Kim may not
advance.
“Whichever Republicans man-
age to win their primaries will be
forced to explain their extreme
positions and out-of-touch rec-
ords to battleground districtswing voters,” said Helen Kalla, a
spokeswoman for the Democrat-
ic Congressional Campaign Com-
mittee.
Matt Gorman, a former com-
munications director for the Na-
tional Republican Congressional
Committee, said the outside help
shows that Kim is well t hought o f
among House Republicans.
“Keeping her in Congress is a
huge, huge priority,” he said,
speaking optimistically of her
chances. Republicans are expect-
ed to retake control of the House
and are hoping to regain the
Senate majority as well.A similar test of Republicans’
preferences is unfolding in the
state with Rep. David G. Valadao,
one of 10 House Republicans
who v oted to impeach Trump last
year. Trump has not endorsed a
challenger to Valadao, a contrast
to the other races where he has
recruited candidates and sought
to punish officials who helped
certify the 2020 presidential
election. But Valadao’s Republi-
can opponent Chris Mathys has
still campaigned on the incum-
bent’s split with Trump.
“I will do everything in my
power to defeat CongressmanDavid Valadao who voted to
impeach President Donald
Trump!” reads a prominent
quote on Mathys’s campaign
website.
Elsewhere on the ballot in
California, Newsom is expected
to coast to victory after beating
back a recall effort last year.
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R)
has no opposition in her primary
and has Trump’s support. On the
other side, Democrat Deidre De-
Jear, a small-business owner and
voting rights activist, also has no
primary competition. DeJear
would be the first Black governor
of Iowa if she wins in November.
Reynolds would begin as a heavy
favorite, according to nonparti-
san analysts.
In South Dakota, polling of the
Republican primary gives a sig-
nificant edge to incumbent Gov.
Kristi L. Noem, a potential 2024
presidential contender.
Another top U.S. House Re-
publican recruit, Gorman said, is
To m Kean in New Jersey, who
narrowly lost to Rep. Tom Mal-
inowski (D) in 2020 and now
faces primary competitors fur-
ther to the right as he seeks a
rematch. “I think he can get by
this primary, and if he does he
has a pretty good shot of win-
ning” in November, Gorman
said.
Some incumbents are facing
scrutiny after ethics investiga-
tions. Ryan Zinke, who served as
secretary of the interior during
the Trump administration, is
seeking the Republican nomina-
tion for Montana’s new House
seat. The Justice Department
declined to bring charges this
year after a government watch-
dog found that Zinke broke fed-
eral rules.
In Mississippi’s 4th District,
Republican Rep. Steven M. Palaz-
zo has a slew of challengers a
year after the Office of Congres-
sional Ethics found “substantial
reason to believe” that he mis-
spent campaign money.Colby Itkowitz contributed to this
report.Primaries likely to ride on issues that will carry into fall
RICH PEDRONCELLI/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Election worker Donna Young inspects a mail-in ballot last week at the Sacramento County registrar of voters. Primaries spread across
California and six other states Tuesday will further shape Democrats and Republicans’ identities in the November midterm elections.*Excludes repairs. Not valid on previous orders or in combination with other off ers, orders or discounts.
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