MAY/JUNE 2017 | | 11An international research team has proposed a “carbon law” based on
Moore’s Law as a pathway to meeting the United Nations goal of
limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C above preindustrial times.
Moore’s Law states that computer processors double in power about
every 2 years; conversely, the carbon law aims to halve carbon
emissions every decade.
The Science report’s authors forecast that if nations are to meet the
UN’s climate goal, fossil-fuel emissions will need to peak by 2020 and
fall to around zero by 2050. Based on published energy scenarios, the
authors say that a carbon law, if followed, would give the world a 75%
chance of meeting the goal set by the UN in Paris.
The researchers say halving emissions every decade should be
complemented by an exponential roll-out of renewables. This could be
achieved by doubling renewables in the energy sector every 5–7 years,
ramping up technologies to remove carbon from the atmosphere, and
rapidly reducing emissions from agriculture and deforestation.
“We are already at the start of this trajectory. In the last decade, the
share of renewables in the energy sector has doubled every 5.5 years. If
doubling continues at this pace, fossil fuels will exit the energy sector
well before 2050,” says lead author Prof Johan Rockström of Stockholm
University.
“Regions that make way for future-proof renewable energy and
storage investments will turn a zero-emissions future into an economic
opportunity,” said co-author A/Prof Malte Meinshausen of The
University of Melbourne’s Climate & Energy College. “While for years,
we’ve seen the ramp-down of incumbent fossil technologies only as
burden, the other side of the coin is now finally visible: lower costs,
more jobs and cleaner air.”
The authors forecast the end of coal in 2030–35 and oil in 2040–45,
and propose that to remain on this trajectory all sectors of the economy
need decadal carbon roadmaps that follow this rule of thumb, modelled
on Moore’s Law.
“This roadmap shows just how this can happen,” said Prof Hans
Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research. “In particular, we identify concrete steps towards full
decarbonisation by 2050. Businesses who try to avoid those steps and
keep on tiptoeing will miss the next industrial revolution and thereby
their best opportunity for a profitable future.”
Dr Joeri Rogelj of the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis said: “The carbon law outlines a global path towards achieving
climate and sustainability goals in broad yet quantitative terms. It
sketches a general vision of rapid emission reductions in conjunction
with the development of sustainable carbon dioxide removal options. It
clearly communicates that no single solution will do the job, and that
this deep uncertainty thus implies starting today pursuing multiple
options simultaneously.”Moore’s Law Inspires Carbon Reduction Target
Mass Extinction Event When Australia Split from Antarctica
Biologists at The Australian National University have found the
first evidence of mass extinction of Australian animals caused by
a dramatic drop in global temperatures 35 million years ago. This
period of intense and rapid climate change occurred at the same
time when Australia separated from Antarctica.
The team detected the mass extinction of pygopodoid geckos
using molecular evolutionary methods to examine fossil records.
“The dramatic shift to colder and drier climates likely resulted
in rapidly changing Australian habitats, which hugely impacted
the animals that inhabited them,” said PhD student Ian Brennan,
who led the research described in Evolution. “Our research provides
evidence that rapid shifts in climate may have profound and long-
lasting effects on global biodiversity.”
Brennan said the findings also suggested that the later emer-
gence and spread of deserts in Australia since about 10 million
years ago provided ideal habitat for new pygopodoid gecko species
to prosper. The pygopodoid geckos are a group of about 150 species
found across Australia. “Our findings suggest that arid regions of
Australia have acted as a cradle for geckos, promoting the rich
gecko diversity that is found across the continent,” he said.
Co-researcher Dr Paul Oliver said geckos did well in the harsh
climates of arid Australia because they avoided the heat by being
nocturnal. “Many desert geckos also have strategies and attributes to
avoid water loss, such as having relatively rugged skin and scales. The
clear scale over the eye, called a spectacle or brille, is one such example
of this, as it helps them avoid water loss from the surface of the eye.
But that means they can’t blink, so they have to lick it clean.
“Underwoodisaurusand their relatives Nephrurus have little
‘eyebrows’ that stick out to keep dust and dirt off their eyes because
they’re burrowing species.”
The Underwoodisaurus can’t blink,
so it must lick its eye to clean it.
Credit: Stuart Hay, ANU