year. “People in Kibera are not ready to
trust the result,” Ambasa says.
Politiciansalsopointtohightensions.
“Weaspoliticalpartiesareverysensitive
to the fact that violence can break out
any time,” Suleiman Shahbal, Jubilee’s
candidate for Mombasa governor, tells
The Africa Report.“Igointoeverymeeting
with a minimum of 10 bodyguards. It’s
unfortunate, but it’s necessary,” he says.CREDIBILITY CRUCIAL
The lessons from 2007 are in danger of
beingforgotten.Inacountrywherevote-
rigginghasbeencommon,thecredibility
of the electoral process is deeply linked
to the likelihood of violence. “Violence
never just happens,” Nasa presidential
candidate Raila Odinga says. “Violence
happens when there’s an injustice. In
2008,thecampaignswereverypeaceful,
itwasonlyaftertheelectoralcommission
announced what everybody knew were
[fake]results,”Odingasays.“That’swhen
the country exploded.”
After the 2013 poll, which Jubilee
won in the first round of voting, Odinga
launched an appeal in the Supreme
Court. When this was rejected, he fixed
hissightsonreformingtheIndependent
Elections and Boundaries Commission
(IEBC),whichhadlongbeencriticisedas
beinginthepocketofthegoverningparty.
Regular protests shut down Nairobi’s
central business district last year until
the government agreed to reorganise
the electoral commission.
Thesechangesseemtohaveassuaged
someoftheopposition’sworries.Wafula
Chebukati,aveteranlawyerandaformer
memberofOdinga’sOrangeDemocratic
Movement, was appointed the IEBC’s
new chairman in January.
But as the election nears, doubts
about its credibility remain. In early
June, the IEBC was still making critical
changes in its personnel, particularly
in the procurement department. And
by late June, both main political groups
were fighting about Al Ghurair, a United
Arab Emirates-based firm that won the
tender to print ballots.
Despite these setbacks, Odinga says
hehasno“strongviews”abouttheIEBC.
“Wehave[fewer]issueswiththem[than
previous commissions],” he adds. “The
good thing is that they listen and they
are ready to consult both sides.”
The 2010 constitution brought de-
volved government, changing the dy-
namicsatplayinthiselection.Afocuson
county-levelpolitics is shifting electoralpressure away from the national race
andintolocalbattles.Jubileeisinvesting
massive resources to challenge Nasa’s
dominanceinthecountry’sthreelargest
cities: Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu.
Oneofthemanywaysthatdevolution
has modified politics can be seen in
Kenyatta’sspatwithJosephatNanok,the
governor of Turkana. Kenya’s second-
largestcounty,Turkanaisalsohometoa
discovereddepositof750mbarrelsofoil
and is a key node in the planned Lamu
Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport
Corridor. The spat is about the share of
oil revenue reserved for local commu-
nities, which the central government
wants to cap at 5%.
Such debates are prevalent in county
politics, setting the stage for the most
complicatedelectionsinKenya’shistory.Whileethnicarithmeticstillmeansalot,
especially at the national stage, other
issuesareimportant.Enhancingdevolved
units is one of the key pillars of Odinga’s
manifesto. Odinga’s side also promises
to increase allocations to counties to
almost half of national revenue.
While the campaign gains speed,
worshippers file into Kakamega’s main
mosque as chickens and goats scurry
between stacks of bricks and piles of
gravel in the lot outside. Next door,
ElizabethNgatia,31,sitsbytheentrance
toaprimaryschoolthatservesasapolling
station. Ngatia is a verification agent in
charge of double-checking that voters
have been correctly registered. She is
using a Safran Morpho tablet that has
a fingerprint scanner. In order to verify
that a voter’s information is correct,
she scans a QR code to bring up polling
station information, enters the person’s
ID number and scans their thumbprint.
In spite of these advances in election
management, the government says the
electronic transmission of votes alone
is not adequate. Of the more than 170
new laws that parliament has passed
since 2013, few have been more divisive
thantheElectionLawsAmendmentAct,
which requires a manual voter register
to be used as backup to the biometric
register. Nasa sees it as a Trojan horse
that would allow Jubilee to fiddle with
the register on polling day.TONYKARUMBA/AFPNumber of registered voters
(million)2013 201714.3
19.6
SOURCE: IEBC, PROVISIONALLY AS OF 9 JUNE 201732 POLITICS