The case for a manual backup was
built on failures of biometric systems,
most infamously during Nigeria’s 2015
elections, when a system could not
recognise then president Goodluck
Jonathan’s fingerprints. But in Kenya,
itwasakeygrievanceintheopposition’s
election petition in the 2013 elections
because it was seen as a way to manip-
ulate the vote count.
RAISING THE DEAD
There are other problems with the voter
registration list. A report released by
KPMG in early June found 92,277 dead
people on the electoral register. It also
estimated that that number might rise
to 1 million between the audit and the
last round of registration. These figures
have already shaken the system, given
that the last election was decided by a
vote margin of more than 800,000.
At an opposition rally held at
Kakamega’s Bukhungu Stadium on 3
June, thousands of screaming support-
ers waved placards reading “10 million
strong” and “Uhuru must go”. The rally
wastheofficiallaunchofOdinga’spresi-
dentialcampaign,whichheinsistswillbe
hislast.HewasjoinedonstagebyNasa’s
principal leaders: Kalonzo Musyoka,
who is running as Odinga’s deputy and
is the leader of the Wiper Democratic
Movement; Musalia Mudavadi, leader
of the Amani National Congress; and
MosesWetangula,leaderofForumforthe
Restoration of Democracy – Kenya. The
coalition chose Kakamega as a launch-
ing pad to solidify its support base in
Western Kenya. Kakamega County is
the second-largest county in terms of
population after Nairobi.
For Odinga, this election is do or die.
It is his fourth stab at the presidency in
20 years. If some continental trends are
anythingtogoby,itmaybehisbestchance
yet. In Ghana, Nana Akufo-
Addo defeated President
John Mahama in his third
bid for the presidency.
But the peaceful hand-
oversofWestAfricancoun-
tries have not been as common in East
Africa. A defeated Odinga would not
necessarily be considered a spent force,
but it would dim his chances of ever
winning what has eluded him for two
decades. A victory would also mean a
one-term Odinga presidency, as deter-
mined by his deal with Musyoka.
Odinga’s greater concern is the inter-
nalmismanagementthathashampered
his previous runs for the presidency, as
well as keeping the coalition together.
Odinga, who served as prime minister
between 2008 and 2013, is seen by
many as a career oppositionist. During
his tenure, he won praise among his
supporters for firing Ruto as minister
of agriculture amid a maize-stealingscandal. Other groups criticised him
for pushing settlers out of Mau Forest.
Nasais aloosecoalition of 11political
parties,whichhasatitshelmafive-man
team, with each man bringing his own
party. To avoid the mistakes of past co-
alitions,theteamhasdividedupseveral
key jobs in case it wins in August.
The other political camp is getting
ready for tough competition. On
Madaraka Day, the first and last na-
tionalholidayafterthecampaignbegan,
Kenyatta and Ruto stared out across a
crowded stadium in Nyeri. Odinga, in a
beige hat, was seated a few seats behind
them. The day before, Kenyatta had
inauguratedthestandardgaugerailway,
dubbedtheMadarakaExpress,builtwith
$3.1bn of Chinese loans. “Madaraka
Express, Ladies and gentlemen, is atrue living symbol of the journey we
areundertakingtogether,”Kenyattatells
an unenthused crowd. “It is the founda-
tion for better incomes for our farmers,
manufacturers and other businesses.”
Kenyatta’s government has swatted
away multiple controversies, includ-
ing a eurobond scandal and a public
healthcare scandal that involved some
of his relatives. An unresolved crisis in
the healthcare sector, a shaky economy
and a united opposition coalition are
piling pressure on Kenyatta and Ruto.
Public debt has also doubled during
his term, pushing it to more than half
ofthecountry’sgrossdomesticproduct.
Jubilee is struggling to appease myr-
iad competing interests within its ownLeft: President Uhuru Kenyatta
(C) and his deputy, William Ruto
(R) extol the virtues of the newly
launched Madaraka Express
Above: A Raila fan shows his
support at the Nasa coalition rally
where Odinga was announced
as the opposition candidateTHOMASMUKOY/REUTERSFor Odinga, this election is
do or die. It is his fourth stab
at the presidency in 20 yearsPOLITICS 33