The Africa Report — July-August 2017

coalition.Somepoliticiansarejockey-

ingforpositioninthe2022presidential

race.Othershavebecomeindependent

candidates,causingheadachesforthe

governing coalition.

At the bare minimum, Kenyatta

is relying on substantial turnout in

both the Rift Valley and in the Central

region, where Kalenjin voters are not

as loyaltoJubilee as they were in 2013,

to counter Nasa’s strong support in

Western and Coastal regions.

In Uhuru’s strongholds, his main

problem is the flight of Jubilee politi-

cians to independent candidacy. His

deputy’sperceivedhandinthatexodus

is perhaps the most existential threat

toaJubileewin.Rutoisalsostruggling

togalvaniseKalenjinvotersintheface

ofchallengesfromthefamilyofformer

president Daniel arap Moi and the

Kenya African National Union party,

as well as his former ally Isaac Ruto,

now an opposition kingpin.

Odinga, on the other hand, is de-

pending on the Luhya vote, which is

historically hard to unify. This explains

why he chose Kakamega as his electoral

launch pad and has two key Luhya pol-

iticians – Mudavadi and Wetangula – in

his coalition. Odinga also seems as-

sured of the Kamba vote, as Kenyatta’s

treatment of Kalonzo’s erstwhile rival,

Charity Ngilu, drove her back into the

opposition. Both sides of the divide are

jostling for the Kisii and Coastal votes,

while spreading their chances across

the other parts of the country.

MIGHT AND OPULENCE

A few hundred metres from the sta-

dium that hosted the Madaraka Day

celebrations, about 10 helicopters sit

on a grassy patch. The bulk of them are

privately owned. By early

June, there were only 88

registered helicopters in

Kenya. But that has been

growing since the begin-

ning of the year at the rate

of about five per month, as politicians

and businesspeople buy them in the

run-up to the polls. Now, nearly all of

Kenya’s leading politicians personally

own choppers, straining the nation’s

civil aviation authority. One candidate,

running in the capital city, owns two.

By all accounts, this year’s election

is a show of might and opulence. At a

fundraiser in early June, Kenyatta asked

the country’s business community not

to hedge their bets. But it’s unlikely

to happen, if previous elections are

anything to go by. Wealthy Asian busi-

nessmenhave,forexample,traditionally

funded both sides.

The Friends of Jubilee Foundation is

Kenyatta’smainfundraisingvehicleand

includeskey Nairobi businessmen such

as Paul Ndung’u, the head of telecoms

company Mobicom, Peter Munga, the

chairman of Equity Bank, and Stanley

Kinyanjui, director of outdoor adver-

tising giant Magnate Ventures. It also,

curiouslyandcontroversially,includesa

fewhigh-rankingcivilservantsincluding

the commissioner general of the Kenya

Revenue Authority, John Njiraini.

Chris Kirubi, chairman of Centum

Investment, Kenya’s largest investment

firm, is another high-profile supporter

of Kenyatta’s government. “This is one

president who has done so much for

this country in four years that it would

be a big pity if we didn’t allow him to

just keep pushing his agenda forward,”

Kirubi tellsThe Africa Report, noting

progress in energy and transport. “This

is the first time the whole world has

honoured Kenya, where our president

is invited by G7 to sit in their meetings

• they don’t invite just anybody.”
  On the Nasa side, the campaign fi-
  nancing team is reportedly headed by a

wheeler-dealer,JimiWanjigi,andformer

attorneygeneralCharlesNjonjo.Wanjigi,

a former schoolmate of Kenyatta’s, also

claims he managed the deals for the

new railway. Working under Mudavadi,

theteam’smainfinanciersincludeNasa

governors, especially Nairobi governor

Evans Kidero and Mombasa governor

Hassan Joho. They will also be relying

on people such as former ports boss

BrownOndegoandJohnsonMuthama,a

gemstonedealerwhochosenottostand

for re-election as a senator.

Kenya’s electoral body was close to

imposing campaign spending limits on

this election through a parliamentary

act, but its efforts were shot down by

the country’s high court. “[The act] was

suspended,so it’s afree for all. They can

spend a lot of money,” Andrew Limo, an

IEBCspokesman,tellsThe Africa Report.

Without the caps, the leading presi-

dential candidates are most likely going

to spend a lot. “In terms of resources,

as of the government, it’s like a battle

between David and Goliath,” Odinga

says. “We know that they outnumber

us, outgun us, by far.”

Back in Nyeri, as people streamed out

of the stadium after the Madaraka Day

celebrations, dozens of soldiers milled

aroundandJubileeflagswerebeingsold.

Abovetheseaofwavingflags,aswarmof

helicopters flew overhead. Aboard were

the politicians who will decide Kenya’s

future. They flew alongside each other

for a few minutes, before parting ways

to scour the country for votes.

Kenya’s electoral body tried

to impose spending limits,

but its efforts were shot down

2013 General Election Results(% of valid votes)

Raila Odinga

Coalition for Reforms

and Democracy/ODM

43.7%

Peter

Kenneth

Eagle

Alliance/

KNC

0.6%

Other candidates

and parties

1.23%

Musalia

Mudavadi

Amani

Coalition/UDF

3.96%

Uhuru Kenyatta

Jubilee Alliance/TNA

50.51%

SOURCE: INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL AND BOUNDARIES COMMISSION

34 POLITICS